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中信证券研究咨询部 江赛春
上周市场走势跌宕起伏，虽然以钢铁股为代表的低价蓝筹股频频出现活跃迹象，但大盘仍然围绕着千三反复争夺，市场信心仍然不足。从基金的操作来看，上周基金并未有较大规模的仓位异动，总体上仓位保持平稳。这与我们上周的判断相符，虽然在年底基金已开始为05年的投资重新挖掘和定位行业和个股的投资价值，但其调仓的压力仍然存在，而主动
做多的意愿仍不强烈。
基金仓位测算显示，上周五64只开放式基金加权平均仓位为62.26%，比前周的61.46%有一定幅度的回升；封闭式基金方面，上周五加权平均仓位为65.55%，比前周的65.94%略降0.39%。从个别基金的仓位变动来看，上周基金总体上仓位保持平稳，没有明显增持和明显减持的基金。长盛动态精选、景顺股票、宝康消费品、申万巴黎精选等几只基金仓位增幅在3%以上，相对增持较为明显。回顾一段时间的基金仓位变化，从市场自11月下旬的反弹高点重新回调以来，基金仓位普遍保持在较高的仓位水平，表明基金目前对市场处于风险较小区域的判断较为一致，但在同时基金也有明显的仓位结构调整迹象，表明基金对市场投资方向的判断并未趋于一致。
从近一段时期的市场情况来看，在市场总体震荡下行的格局中几大传统的基金重仓板块的频频出击格外引人注目。12月初汽车板块在长安汽车(资讯 行情 论坛)、江铃汽车(资讯 行情 论坛)带动下有所表现，随后凌钢股份(资讯 行情 论坛)、西山煤电(资讯 行情 论坛)、华夏银行(资讯 行情 论坛)等属于“五朵金花”的品种依次出现回升行情。几大板块的回暖似乎表明蓝筹股的投资机会正在重新受到主流资金的关注。但从基金的角度来看，目前似乎仍难看到基金已显露出强烈的做多意愿。临近年底基金普遍已开始着眼于2005年的投资策略，部分前期估值预期下降明显的周期型行业如钢铁、石化有可能得到重新认识并调高投资预期。但在目前的情况下，基金仓位持续保持在较高水平，因此投资机会的再挖掘很大程度上要通过仓位调整来进行。再加上基金策略普遍倾向淡化行业配置而以个股精选为主，类似去年“五朵金花”全面展开的蓝筹行情将很难重现；板块的群体效应可能在局部显现，但关注基金策略变化仍应以个股为主。
表一：开放式基金仓位测算结果
|
基金名称
|
本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
|
本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
长盛动态 |
53.15% |
49.76% |
3.39% |
3.92% |
仓位稳定 |
景顺股票 |
68.52% |
65.15% |
3.36% |
3.84% |
宝康消费 |
61.59% |
58.67% |
2.92% |
3.43% |
申万精选 |
54.21% |
51.46% |
2.75% |
3.27% |
国泰精选 |
65.26% |
62.56% |
2.69% |
3.19% |
融通新蓝筹 |
63.05% |
60.48% |
2.57% |
3.07% |
广发聚富 |
69.72% |
67.16% |
2.55% |
3.01% |
中融行业 |
56.40% |
53.97% |
2.42% |
2.94% |
融通成长 |
47.53% |
45.28% |
2.25% |
2.76% |
海富通收益 |
50.48% |
48.38% |
2.11% |
2.63% |
国泰金鹰 |
64.23% |
62.34% |
1.89% |
2.38% |
德盛精选 |
55.44% |
53.59% |
1.84% |
2.36% |
嘉实稳健 |
65.35% |
63.50% |
1.85% |
2.34% |
鹏华 50 |
65.35% |
63.51% |
1.84% |
2.32% |
银河稳健 |
67.58% |
65.75% |
1.82% |
2.30% |
招商先锋 |
65.36% |
63.56% |
1.80% |
2.28% |
银河理财 |
55.36% |
53.61% |
1.75% |
2.27% |
诺安平衡 |
62.05% |
60.51% |
1.54% |
2.04% |
宝康灵活 |
56.50% |
54.99% |
1.51% |
2.03% |
融通行业 |
68.72% |
67.18% |
1.53% |
2.00% |
博时精选 |
67.97% |
66.59% |
1.38% |
1.84% |
南方稳健 |
66.52% |
65.22% |
1.30% |
1.77% |
招商平衡 |
47.64% |
46.40% |
1.24% |
1.76% |
华安创新 |
67.64% |
66.39% |
1.25% |
1.71% |
华夏回报 |
56.53% |
55.34% |
1.19% |
1.71% |
海富通精选 |
68.76% |
67.56% |
1.19% |
1.65% |
嘉实服务 |
54.32% |
53.22% |
1.10% |
1.62% |
银华优势 |
69.87% |
68.73% |
1.14% |
1.59% |
荷银精选 |
60.60% |
59.69% |
0.91% |
1.41% |
景顺平衡 |
52.13% |
51.28% |
0.85% |
1.37% |
大成稳健 |
61.03% |
60.28% |
0.75% |
1.25% |
泰信策略 |
71.03% |
70.32% |
0.71% |
1.15% |
宝盈鸿利 |
64.37% |
63.71% |
0.66% |
1.15% |
大成价值 |
62.16% |
61.59% |
0.57% |
1.07% |
嘉实增长 |
61.06% |
60.58% |
0.48% |
0.98% |
富国价值 |
72.16% |
71.63% |
0.54% |
0.96% |
德盛稳健 |
62.18% |
61.80% |
0.38% |
0.88% |
易方达 50 |
74.40% |
74.00% |
0.40% |
0.80% |
普天收益 |
69.98% |
69.79% |
0.19% |
0.63% |
金鹰优选 |
76.72% |
77.22% |
-0.50% |
-0.13% |
招商股票 |
65.62% |
66.23% |
-0.61% |
-0.14% |
易方达策略 |
75.62% |
76.20% |
-0.58% |
-0.20% |
天治增长 |
65.64% |
66.43% |
-0.79% |
-0.32% |
华宝策略 |
64.53% |
65.34% |
-0.81% |
-0.34% |
长盛成长 |
62.32% |
63.18% |
-0.87% |
-0.38% |
鹏华成长 |
61.22% |
62.19% |
-0.97% |
-0.48% |
嘉实成长 |
67.88% |
68.83% |
-0.95% |
-0.50% |
巨田基础 |
66.78% |
67.83% |
-1.04% |
-0.59% |
易方达平稳 |
63.47% |
64.66% |
-1.19% |
-0.71% |
合丰周期 |
66.80% |
68.00% |
-1.20% |
-0.75% |
合丰成长 |
71.25% |
72.47% |
-1.22% |
-0.80% |
国泰稳健 |
66.81% |
68.11% |
-1.30% |
-0.84% |
长城久泰 |
72.37% |
73.66% |
-1.29% |
-0.88% |
景顺内需 |
64.59% |
65.95% |
-1.35% |
-0.88% |
华安 180 |
74.60% |
76.03% |
-1.42% |
-1.04% |
天同 180 |
76.83% |
78.28% |
-1.45% |
-1.09% |
博时价值 |
74.61% |
76.12% |
-1.50% |
-1.12% |
富国动态 |
57.97% |
59.73% |
-1.75% |
-1.25% |
金鹰精选 |
66.86% |
68.56% |
-1.70% |
-1.25% |
长城久恒 |
67.98% |
69.75% |
-1.78% |
-1.34% |
博时裕富 |
71.35% |
73.46% |
-2.11% |
-1.71% |
融通 100 |
72.46% |
74.57% |
-2.11% |
-1.71% |
合丰稳定 |
68.71% |
70.92% |
-2.21% |
-1.78% |
华夏成长 |
65.87% |
68.72% |
-2.85% |
-2.40% |
加权平均 |
62.26% |
61.46% |
0.80% |
1.29% |
仓位稳定 |
* 上表数据均依据公开信息测算，参考误差比例在5%以内，仅供参考。
数据来源：中信证券研究咨询部 截至：2004-12-17 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
表二：封闭式基金仓位测算结果
|
基金名称
|
本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
|
本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
基金安瑞 |
65.20% |
62.02% |
3.18% |
3.67% |
仓位稳定 |
基金普惠 |
65.32% |
63.23% |
2.10% |
2.58% |
基金景业 |
63.10% |
61.02% |
2.08% |
2.58% |
基金裕隆 |
66.55% |
64.66% |
1.89% |
2.37% |
基金金元 |
68.68% |
66.78% |
1.89% |
2.36% |
基金金鼎 |
65.35% |
63.50% |
1.85% |
2.34% |
基金汉盛 |
68.69% |
66.88% |
1.81% |
2.28% |
基金科瑞 |
66.25% |
64.75% |
1.50% |
1.98% |
基金景福 |
63.42% |
62.22% |
1.20% |
1.69% |
基金裕元 |
68.57% |
67.36% |
1.22% |
1.68% |
基金安顺 |
64.32% |
63.20% |
1.12% |
1.61% |
基金同益 |
63.21% |
62.12% |
1.09% |
1.58% |
基金兴华 |
66.55% |
65.46% |
1.08% |
1.56% |
基金通乾 |
67.66% |
66.57% |
1.08% |
1.55% |
基金鸿飞 |
69.88% |
68.79% |
1.09% |
1.54% |
基金泰和 |
64.35% |
63.45% |
0.89% |
1.38% |
基金汉博 |
65.46% |
64.56% |
0.89% |
1.37% |
基金普丰 |
64.35% |
63.47% |
0.88% |
1.36% |
基金通宝 |
66.57% |
65.68% |
0.89% |
1.36% |
基金开元 |
65.46% |
64.58% |
0.88% |
1.36% |
基金普华 |
64.35% |
63.55% |
0.81% |
1.29% |
基金金泰 |
63.25% |
62.47% |
0.78% |
1.27% |
基金同盛 |
65.47% |
64.69% |
0.78% |
1.26% |
基金同德 |
71.02% |
70.24% |
0.78% |
1.22% |
基金裕阳 |
66.59% |
65.87% |
0.72% |
1.19% |
基金同智 |
66.26% |
65.68% |
0.57% |
1.05% |
基金融鑫 |
67.75% |
67.48% |
0.27% |
0.73% |
基金兴和 |
62.20% |
62.02% |
0.18% |
0.67% |
基金隆元 |
68.88% |
68.75% |
0.12% |
0.57% |
基金裕华 |
72.21% |
72.11% |
0.10% |
0.53% |
基金科翔 |
66.69% |
66.87% |
-0.18% |
0.28% |
基金久富 |
66.69% |
66.90% |
-0.21% |
0.26% |
基金兴安 |
65.57% |
65.68% |
-0.11% |
0.06% |
基金汉兴 |
64.54% |
65.43% |
-0.88% |
-0.41% |
基金安信 |
65.65% |
66.54% |
-0.89% |
-0.42% |
基金普润 |
64.55% |
65.46% |
-0.92% |
-0.44% |
基金金鑫 |
66.77% |
67.69% |
-0.92% |
-0.46% |
基金丰和 |
66.79% |
67.87% |
-1.08% |
-0.63% |
基金裕泽 |
63.46% |
64.56% |
-1.11% |
-0.63% |
基金天华 |
62.35% |
63.48% |
-1.13% |
-0.64% |
基金金盛 |
65.68% |
66.80% |
-1.12% |
-0.65% |
基金天元 |
64.57% |
65.70% |
-1.13% |
-0.65% |
基金久嘉 |
65.69% |
66.88% |
-1.19% |
-0.72% |
基金鸿阳 |
68.70% |
70.12% |
-1.42% |
-0.98% |
基金科汇 |
68.70% |
70.21% |
-1.50% |
-1.07% |
基金汉鼎 |
67.95% |
69.46% |
-1.51% |
-1.07% |
基金景宏 |
70.20% |
72.02% |
-1.82% |
-1.40% |
基金景阳 |
65.77% |
67.65% |
-1.89% |
-1.43% |
基金景博 |
63.55% |
65.47% |
-1.93% |
-1.45% |
基金兴科 |
66.88% |
68.79% |
-1.91% |
-1.46% |
基金科讯 |
66.88% |
68.80% |
-1.92% |
-1.47% |
基金银丰 |
64.68% |
66.76% |
-2.08% |
-1.62% |
基金安久 |
64.69% |
66.88% |
-2.19% |
-1.73% |
基金兴业 |
62.57% |
65.66% |
-3.09% |
-2.62% |
加权平均 |
65.65% |
65.55% |
0.10% |
0.61% |
仓位稳定 |
*封闭式基金由于数据较少可能出现较大的个别误差；
加权平均仓位参考误差比例在5%以内。
数据来源：中信证券研究咨询部 截至：2004-12-17 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
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