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中信证券研究咨询部 江赛春
上周市场走势出现了明显变化，低价股、重组股等短线行情开始降温，周四以钢铁为首的蓝筹板块大幅上涨一度激活了市场的投资热情，但在政策面利好和利空的交替作用下市场仍然难以走出不确定格局，周五又以大幅下挫收盘。而从基金的操作来看，上周基金继续有小幅度的减持迹象，表明基金主动做多的愿望并不强烈。而尤为值得注意的是不少基金
的调仓迹象更加明显，这表明主流资金对其投资方向仍在探索和调整，由此导致短期内市场运行的方向难以决定。
基金仓位测算显示，上周五64只开放式基金加权平均仓位为61.46%，比前周的61.97%小幅下降0.51%；封闭式基金方面，上周五加权平均仓位为65.55%，比前周的65.94%略降0.39%。从个别基金的仓位变动来看，上周基金的操作方向增减不一，但总体仓位变动幅度都较小。减持基金的仓位变动幅度比增持基金更为明显，其中普天收益减持超过5%，而长盛成长、招商股票、长城久恒减持幅度也在4%以上。但在仓位水平变化不大的同时，基金继续显示出十分明显的仓位结构调整迹象。多数基金的净值变动趋势与之前发生了较大变化，表明基金在保持仓位的同时在对持仓结构进行积极的调整。
上周的市场情况也在一个侧面反映出基金目前以结构调整为主的操作思路。上周四在钢铁股放量大涨的带动下石化、汽车等蓝筹板块纷纷有所表现，但受到政策面的影响又昙花一现，市场对蓝筹重新领涨的信心仍不充分。我们认为虽然周四的钢铁股行情很可能有部分基金的资金参与，但总体上基金仓位仍是处于调整之中，表明基金判定市场方向并开始积极入市的可能性不大。这种蓝筹普涨的行情再度出现虽然有很强的号召力，但总体上并不反映主流资金的操作意愿，因此难以持续。而回顾基金在近两个月来大盘持续震荡反复过程中的操作，9月份以后以新基金为主的持续建仓并未带来显著的板块效应，在大盘上下两难的调整中基金开始放慢建仓步伐甚至小幅减持，同时积极的持仓结构调整表明基金对市场投资主题的认识在不断地发生改变。由此导致了主流资金难以选择方向，而市场在各种消息面因素影响下游资主导的格局。但在上周低价股和题材股行情已明显现出退潮势头，蓝筹板块的欲振乏力表明市场仍将在震荡中探索新的投资主题和方向。
表一：开放式基金仓位测算结果
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基金名称
|
本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
|
本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
鹏华成长 |
62.19% |
59.32% |
2.87% |
3.45% |
仓位稳定 |
合丰稳定 |
70.92% |
68.04% |
2.88% |
3.41% |
大成稳健 |
60.28% |
57.48% |
2.80% |
3.39% |
中融行业 |
53.97% |
51.46% |
2.51% |
3.11% |
银河理财 |
53.61% |
51.43% |
2.18% |
2.78% |
德盛精选 |
53.59% |
51.47% |
2.12% |
2.72% |
泰信策略 |
70.32% |
68.24% |
2.08% |
2.60% |
景顺平衡 |
51.28% |
49.33% |
1.94% |
2.54% |
国泰金鹰 |
62.34% |
60.43% |
1.91% |
2.49% |
银华优势 |
68.73% |
67.26% |
1.47% |
2.00% |
银河稳健 |
65.75% |
64.41% |
1.34% |
1.90% |
博时裕富 |
73.46% |
72.13% |
1.33% |
1.82% |
宝盈鸿利 |
63.71% |
62.48% |
1.23% |
1.79% |
融通行业 |
67.18% |
65.97% |
1.22% |
1.76% |
海富通收益 |
48.38% |
47.33% |
1.05% |
1.65% |
天治增长 |
66.43% |
65.44% |
0.99% |
1.54% |
景顺股票 |
65.15% |
64.40% |
0.76% |
1.31% |
天同 180 |
78.28% |
77.44% |
0.84% |
1.27% |
博时精选 |
66.59% |
65.96% |
0.63% |
1.17% |
易方达平稳 |
64.66% |
64.12% |
0.53% |
1.09% |
金鹰优选 |
77.22% |
76.58% |
0.64% |
1.07% |
德盛稳健 |
61.80% |
61.34% |
0.46% |
1.03% |
合丰成长 |
72.47% |
71.94% |
0.53% |
1.02% |
易方达 50 |
74.00% |
73.63% |
0.37% |
0.84% |
华宝策略 |
65.34% |
65.22% |
0.12% |
0.67% |
鹏华 50 |
63.51% |
63.56% |
-0.04% |
0.52% |
融通成长 |
45.28% |
45.72% |
-0.44% |
0.16% |
合丰周期 |
68.00% |
68.45% |
-0.45% |
0.07% |
景顺内需 |
65.95% |
66.46% |
-0.52% |
0.02% |
长盛动态 |
49.76% |
50.67% |
-0.92% |
-0.31% |
嘉实增长 |
60.58% |
61.53% |
-0.95% |
-0.38% |
申万精选 |
51.46% |
52.49% |
-1.03% |
-0.43% |
博时价值 |
76.12% |
77.03% |
-0.92% |
-0.49% |
融通新蓝筹 |
60.48% |
61.54% |
-1.07% |
-0.50% |
长城久泰 |
73.66% |
74.66% |
-1.00% |
-0.54% |
华安 180 |
76.03% |
77.02% |
-0.99% |
-0.56% |
融通 100 |
74.57% |
75.66% |
-1.09% |
-0.64% |
诺安平衡 |
60.51% |
61.99% |
-1.48% |
-0.91% |
国泰精选 |
62.56% |
64.06% |
-1.50% |
-0.95% |
大成价值 |
61.59% |
63.18% |
-1.60% |
-1.03% |
招商先锋 |
63.56% |
65.17% |
-1.61% |
-1.06% |
招商平衡 |
46.40% |
48.08% |
-1.68% |
-1.07% |
华夏回报 |
55.34% |
57.32% |
-1.98% |
-1.39% |
宝康灵活 |
54.99% |
57.17% |
-2.18% |
-1.59% |
嘉实服务 |
53.22% |
55.47% |
-2.25% |
-1.65% |
荷银精选 |
59.69% |
62.09% |
-2.39% |
-1.83% |
华夏成长 |
68.72% |
71.05% |
-2.33% |
-1.83% |
华安创新 |
66.39% |
68.96% |
-2.57% |
-2.05% |
南方稳健 |
65.22% |
67.86% |
-2.63% |
-2.11% |
嘉实稳健 |
63.50% |
66.17% |
-2.67% |
-2.13% |
宝康消费 |
58.67% |
61.58% |
-2.91% |
-2.34% |
巨田基础 |
67.83% |
70.69% |
-2.87% |
-2.37% |
海富通精选 |
67.56% |
70.44% |
-2.88% |
-2.37% |
国泰稳健 |
68.11% |
71.10% |
-2.99% |
-2.49% |
金鹰精选 |
68.56% |
71.66% |
-3.10% |
-2.61% |
广发聚富 |
67.16% |
70.33% |
-3.16% |
-2.66% |
富国价值 |
71.63% |
75.13% |
-3.50% |
-3.05% |
富国动态 |
59.73% |
63.51% |
-3.78% |
-3.22% |
嘉实成长 |
68.83% |
72.56% |
-3.73% |
-3.24% |
易方达策略 |
76.20% |
80.00% |
-3.80% |
-3.41% |
长城久恒 |
69.75% |
73.84% |
-4.08% |
-3.61% |
招商股票 |
66.23% |
70.57% |
-4.34% |
-3.84% |
长盛成长 |
63.18% |
67.86% |
-4.68% |
-4.15% |
普天收益 |
69.79% |
76.58% |
-6.79% |
-6.36% |
减持迹象 |
加权平均 |
61.46% |
61.97% |
-0.51% |
0.06% |
仓位稳定 |
上表数据均依据公开信息测算，参考误差比例在5%以内，仅供参考。
数据来源：中信证券研究咨询部 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
表二：封闭式基金仓位测算结果
|
基金名称
|
本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
|
本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
基金汉鼎 |
69.46% |
65.88% |
3.58% |
4.12% |
仓位稳定 |
基金融鑫 |
67.48% |
64.77% |
2.71% |
3.26% |
基金兴和 |
62.02% |
60.21% |
1.81% |
2.39% |
基金安瑞 |
62.02% |
60.24% |
1.78% |
2.36% |
基金景宏 |
72.02% |
70.20% |
1.82% |
2.32% |
基金裕元 |
67.36% |
65.64% |
1.72% |
2.26% |
基金安顺 |
63.20% |
62.02% |
1.18% |
1.75% |
基金隆元 |
68.75% |
67.54% |
1.22% |
1.75% |
基金汉兴 |
65.43% |
64.26% |
1.17% |
1.72% |
基金安信 |
66.54% |
65.42% |
1.12% |
1.67% |
基金景阳 |
67.65% |
66.52% |
1.13% |
1.67% |
基金裕华 |
72.11% |
71.07% |
1.04% |
1.54% |
基金普惠 |
63.23% |
62.27% |
0.96% |
1.53% |
基金兴科 |
68.79% |
67.86% |
0.93% |
1.46% |
基金同益 |
62.12% |
61.25% |
0.88% |
1.45% |
基金鸿飞 |
68.79% |
67.87% |
0.92% |
1.45% |
基金通乾 |
66.57% |
65.73% |
0.84% |
1.39% |
基金普润 |
65.46% |
64.63% |
0.83% |
1.38% |
基金兴华 |
65.46% |
64.64% |
0.82% |
1.37% |
基金金鑫 |
67.69% |
66.86% |
0.83% |
1.36% |
基金景业 |
61.02% |
60.25% |
0.78% |
1.36% |
基金科讯 |
68.80% |
67.99% |
0.81% |
1.34% |
基金景博 |
65.47% |
64.74% |
0.73% |
1.28% |
基金景福 |
62.22% |
62.25% |
-0.02% |
0.55% |
基金银丰 |
66.76% |
67.58% |
-0.82% |
-0.29% |
基金丰和 |
67.87% |
68.70% |
-0.83% |
-0.31% |
基金兴业 |
65.66% |
66.55% |
-0.90% |
-0.36% |
基金裕泽 |
64.56% |
65.63% |
-1.07% |
-0.52% |
基金泰和 |
63.45% |
64.53% |
-1.08% |
-0.53% |
基金金元 |
66.78% |
67.84% |
-1.06% |
-0.53% |
基金汉博 |
64.56% |
65.64% |
-1.08% |
-0.53% |
基金兴安 |
65.68% |
66.76% |
-1.08% |
-0.54% |
基金通宝 |
65.68% |
66.76% |
-1.09% |
-0.55% |
基金鸿阳 |
70.12% |
71.20% |
-1.08% |
-0.59% |
基金同智 |
65.68% |
66.84% |
-1.15% |
-0.62% |
基金开元 |
64.58% |
65.78% |
-1.20% |
-0.66% |
基金普丰 |
63.47% |
64.68% |
-1.21% |
-0.66% |
基金金盛 |
66.80% |
67.99% |
-1.19% |
-0.66% |
基金天华 |
63.48% |
64.76% |
-1.28% |
-0.73% |
基金天元 |
65.70% |
66.97% |
-1.27% |
-0.74% |
基金金鼎 |
63.50% |
64.97% |
-1.47% |
-0.92% |
基金科翔 |
66.87% |
68.70% |
-1.83% |
-1.31% |
基金汉盛 |
66.88% |
68.75% |
-1.88% |
-1.36% |
基金普华 |
63.55% |
65.45% |
-1.91% |
-1.36% |
基金久嘉 |
66.88% |
68.76% |
-1.88% |
-1.36% |
基金科汇 |
70.21% |
72.07% |
-1.86% |
-1.37% |
基金安久 |
66.88% |
68.78% |
-1.90% |
-1.38% |
基金裕隆 |
64.66% |
66.59% |
-1.93% |
-1.39% |
基金久富 |
66.90% |
68.98% |
-2.08% |
-1.56% |
基金金泰 |
62.47% |
64.65% |
-2.19% |
-1.64% |
基金同盛 |
64.69% |
66.88% |
-2.19% |
-1.65% |
基金同德 |
70.24% |
72.43% |
-2.19% |
-1.70% |
基金科瑞 |
64.75% |
67.47% |
-2.72% |
-2.19% |
基金裕阳 |
65.87% |
68.68% |
-2.81% |
-2.29% |
加权平均 |
65.55% |
65.94% |
-0.39% |
0.15% |
仓位稳定 |
封闭式基金由于数据较少可能出现较大的个别误差；
加权平均仓位参考误差比例在5%以内。
数据来源：中信证券研究咨询部 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
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