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中信证券研究咨询部 江赛春
上周市场仍然延续着前一周的震荡走势，由于大盘股的整体疲弱，市场总体表现较为低迷。但与此同时市场上仍然呈现局部热点此起彼伏的格局，重组股、题材股继续偏离大盘持续做好，表明游资力量活跃。而从基金的角度来看，与前周相似基金整体上并未表现出明显的操作动向，上周不少基金的仓位小幅度下降。值得注意的是不少基金显示出明显的调仓迹象，基金的调整态度与游资的活跃造成了目前市场投资主题散乱的格局仍在延续。
基金仓位测算显示，上周五64只开放式基金加权平均仓位为61.97%，比前周的62.85%继续小幅下降0.88%；封闭式基金方面，上周五加权平均仓位为65.94%，比前周的66.57%略降0.63%。从个别基金的仓位变动来看，基金之间操作上有一定分歧。德盛稳健显示为增持，长盛动态、融通成长、天治财富增长等仓位也有较明显的增加；而在另一方面，多数基金仓位显示为小幅度下降，其中国泰精选显示为较明显的减持。值得注意的是，基金普遍显示出比较明显的仓位调整迹象，表明基金在近一段时间总体保持观望的同时也在对仓位结构进行调整。
从上周的市场情况来看，基金重仓股的表现仍然陷于疲弱。在概念和题材股风起云涌对比之下，基金重仓股的走弱趋势更加明显，多数在前期涨幅较大的绩优蓝筹股仍然继续处于持续调整过程。除了中化国际(资讯 行情 论坛)、中兴通讯(资讯 行情 论坛)等少数重仓股略有上涨外，盐田港(资讯 行情 论坛)、中原高速(资讯 行情 论坛)、外运发展(资讯 行情 论坛)、燕京啤酒(资讯 行情 论坛)、双汇发展(资讯 行情 论坛)、国阳新能(资讯 行情 论坛)等基金重仓股的跌幅均超过了5%。这与同时期基金仓位的调整态势不无关系。在目前的市场环境下基金进行大规模的仓位增减难度都比较大，只能是以仓位调整为主，而基金重仓股的集体走弱也凸显出基金仓位调整存在的困难。尤其是在前期持仓集中的周期性板块和少部分绩优蓝筹股上显现的估值分歧使这部分主流板块难有作为。在主流板块较为沉寂的情况下也可能有部分基金参与了短线热点题材的发掘，但这种参与也只是小规模和局部性的。局部的热点的活跃难以决定大盘方向，我们预计大盘仍将以震荡整理为主。
表一：开放式基金仓位测算结果
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基金名称
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本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
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本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
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德盛稳健 |
61.34% |
56.17% |
5.16% |
5.34% |
增持迹象 |
长盛动态 |
50.67% |
46.52% |
4.16% |
4.34% |
仓位稳定 |
融通成长 |
45.72% |
41.61% |
4.11% |
4.29% |
天治增长 |
65.44% |
61.59% |
3.85% |
4.02% |
长城久恒 |
73.84% |
70.44% |
3.39% |
3.55% |
融通行业 |
65.97% |
62.73% |
3.24% |
3.41% |
合丰成长 |
71.94% |
69.17% |
2.77% |
2.93% |
金鹰优选 |
76.58% |
74.16% |
2.42% |
2.56% |
诺安平衡 |
61.99% |
59.77% |
2.22% |
2.40% |
嘉实增长 |
61.53% |
59.53% |
2.00% |
2.18% |
普天收益 |
76.58% |
74.80% |
1.78% |
1.92% |
易方达平稳 |
64.12% |
62.52% |
1.61% |
1.78% |
易方达策略 |
80.00% |
78.54% |
1.46% |
1.59% |
鹏华成长 |
59.32% |
57.95% |
1.38% |
1.56% |
富国价值 |
75.13% |
73.78% |
1.35% |
1.49% |
海富通收益 |
47.33% |
46.11% |
1.22% |
1.40% |
泰信策略 |
68.24% |
67.04% |
1.21% |
1.37% |
融通新蓝筹 |
61.54% |
60.40% |
1.15% |
1.33% |
中融行业 |
51.46% |
50.63% |
0.84% |
1.02% |
华夏成长 |
71.05% |
70.19% |
0.86% |
1.02% |
景顺内需 |
66.46% |
65.64% |
0.83% |
0.99% |
合丰稳定 |
68.04% |
67.55% |
0.49% |
0.65% |
华夏回报 |
57.32% |
57.21% |
0.11% |
0.29% |
嘉实成长 |
72.56% |
72.47% |
0.08% |
0.23% |
银河稳健 |
64.41% |
64.47% |
-0.06% |
0.11% |
嘉实稳健 |
66.17% |
66.27% |
-0.10% |
0.07% |
广发聚富 |
70.33% |
70.57% |
-0.25% |
-0.09% |
宝康灵活 |
57.17% |
57.55% |
-0.38% |
-0.20% |
华宝策略 |
65.22% |
65.92% |
-0.69% |
-0.53% |
融通 100 |
75.66% |
76.46% |
-0.80% |
-0.67% |
鹏华 50 |
63.56% |
64.44% |
-0.89% |
-0.72% |
长城久泰 |
74.66% |
75.67% |
-1.01% |
-0.87% |
富国动态 |
63.51% |
64.57% |
-1.06% |
-0.90% |
银河理财 |
51.43% |
52.59% |
-1.16% |
-0.98% |
银华优势 |
67.26% |
68.49% |
-1.23% |
-1.07% |
国泰稳健 |
71.10% |
72.40% |
-1.31% |
-1.16% |
宝盈鸿利 |
62.48% |
63.83% |
-1.35% |
-1.18% |
大成稳健 |
57.48% |
59.29% |
-1.81% |
-1.63% |
招商先锋 |
65.17% |
66.98% |
-1.81% |
-1.65% |
华安 180 |
77.02% |
78.84% |
-1.83% |
-1.70% |
南方稳健 |
67.86% |
69.72% |
-1.87% |
-1.71% |
华安创新 |
68.96% |
70.99% |
-2.02% |
-1.87% |
招商平衡 |
48.08% |
50.15% |
-2.07% |
-1.89% |
招商股票 |
70.57% |
72.70% |
-2.13% |
-1.98% |
海富通精选 |
70.44% |
72.74% |
-2.30% |
-2.16% |
易方达 50 |
73.63% |
76.03% |
-2.39% |
-2.26% |
景顺股票 |
64.40% |
66.95% |
-2.55% |
-2.39% |
天同 180 |
77.44% |
80.00% |
-2.56% |
-2.45% |
德盛精选 |
51.47% |
54.10% |
-2.64% |
-2.45% |
国泰金鹰 |
60.43% |
63.06% |
-2.63% |
-2.46% |
博时精选 |
65.96% |
68.71% |
-2.75% |
-2.59% |
巨田基础 |
70.69% |
73.55% |
-2.86% |
-2.71% |
金鹰精选 |
71.66% |
74.58% |
-2.92% |
-2.78% |
大成价值 |
63.18% |
66.19% |
-3.01% |
-2.84% |
博时价值 |
77.03% |
80.00% |
-2.97% |
-2.85% |
申万精选 |
52.49% |
55.59% |
-3.10% |
-2.92% |
嘉实服务 |
55.47% |
58.78% |
-3.31% |
-3.13% |
荷银精选 |
62.09% |
65.42% |
-3.34% |
-3.17% |
长盛成长 |
67.86% |
71.22% |
-3.36% |
-3.20% |
宝康消费 |
61.58% |
64.97% |
-3.39% |
-3.22% |
景顺平衡 |
49.33% |
52.87% |
-3.53% |
-3.35% |
合丰周期 |
68.45% |
72.98% |
-4.53% |
-4.39% |
博时裕富 |
72.13% |
76.92% |
-4.80% |
-4.67% |
国泰精选 |
64.06% |
69.22% |
-5.16% |
-5.00% |
减持迹象 |
加权平均 |
61.97% |
62.85% |
-0.88% |
-0.73% |
仓位稳定 |
上表数据均依据公开信息测算，参考误差比例在5%以内，仅供参考。
数据来源：中信证券研究咨询部 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
表二：封闭式基金仓位测算结果
|
基金名称
|
本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
|
本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
基金隆元 |
67.54% |
65.35% |
2.18% |
2.35% |
仓位稳定 |
基金裕阳 |
68.68% |
66.75% |
1.92% |
2.09% |
基金银丰 |
67.58% |
65.77% |
1.81% |
1.98% |
基金安顺 |
62.02% |
60.22% |
1.80% |
1.98% |
基金汉兴 |
64.26% |
62.58% |
1.68% |
1.85% |
基金科汇 |
72.07% |
70.69% |
1.38% |
1.54% |
基金景阳 |
66.52% |
65.25% |
1.28% |
1.45% |
基金汉盛 |
68.75% |
67.52% |
1.23% |
1.39% |
基金安信 |
65.42% |
64.20% |
1.22% |
1.39% |
基金久嘉 |
68.76% |
67.59% |
1.17% |
1.33% |
基金兴业 |
66.55% |
65.54% |
1.01% |
1.18% |
基金安久 |
68.78% |
67.76% |
1.02% |
1.18% |
基金普华 |
65.45% |
64.52% |
0.93% |
1.10% |
基金科瑞 |
67.47% |
66.54% |
0.93% |
1.09% |
基金裕隆 |
66.59% |
65.88% |
0.71% |
0.88% |
基金裕华 |
71.07% |
70.68% |
0.39% |
0.54% |
基金景福 |
62.25% |
62.45% |
-0.21% |
-0.03% |
基金普惠 |
62.27% |
62.66% |
-0.39% |
-0.22% |
基金金元 |
67.84% |
68.44% |
-0.60% |
-0.44% |
基金裕泽 |
65.63% |
66.32% |
-0.69% |
-0.53% |
基金兴科 |
67.86% |
68.56% |
-0.71% |
-0.55% |
基金裕元 |
65.64% |
66.41% |
-0.77% |
-0.60% |
基金泰和 |
64.53% |
65.31% |
-0.78% |
-0.61% |
基金汉博 |
65.64% |
66.43% |
-0.78% |
-0.62% |
基金鸿飞 |
67.87% |
68.66% |
-0.79% |
-0.63% |
基金兴安 |
66.76% |
67.57% |
-0.81% |
-0.65% |
基金久富 |
68.98% |
69.79% |
-0.81% |
-0.65% |
基金鸿阳 |
71.20% |
72.02% |
-0.82% |
-0.67% |
基金通宝 |
66.76% |
67.65% |
-0.88% |
-0.72% |
基金科翔 |
68.70% |
69.87% |
-1.17% |
-1.01% |
基金同益 |
61.25% |
62.45% |
-1.21% |
-1.04% |
基金丰和 |
68.70% |
70.11% |
-1.41% |
-1.25% |
基金同智 |
66.84% |
68.35% |
-1.52% |
-1.36% |
基金通乾 |
65.73% |
67.32% |
-1.59% |
-1.43% |
基金普润 |
64.63% |
66.34% |
-1.71% |
-1.54% |
基金金鑫 |
66.86% |
68.57% |
-1.71% |
-1.55% |
基金兴华 |
64.64% |
66.44% |
-1.79% |
-1.63% |
基金景宏 |
70.20% |
72.01% |
-1.81% |
-1.66% |
基金金泰 |
64.65% |
66.52% |
-1.87% |
-1.71% |
基金金盛 |
67.99% |
69.86% |
-1.87% |
-1.71% |
基金科讯 |
67.99% |
69.86% |
-1.87% |
-1.71% |
基金同盛 |
66.88% |
68.77% |
-1.89% |
-1.73% |
基金同德 |
72.43% |
74.31% |
-1.88% |
-1.74% |
基金兴和 |
60.21% |
62.13% |
-1.92% |
-1.75% |
基金开元 |
65.78% |
67.77% |
-1.99% |
-1.83% |
基金普丰 |
64.68% |
66.77% |
-2.09% |
-1.93% |
基金安瑞 |
60.24% |
62.40% |
-2.16% |
-1.99% |
基金景业 |
60.25% |
62.45% |
-2.21% |
-2.03% |
基金景博 |
64.74% |
67.42% |
-2.68% |
-2.52% |
基金天元 |
66.97% |
69.69% |
-2.72% |
-2.56% |
基金天华 |
64.76% |
67.57% |
-2.81% |
-2.65% |
基金融鑫 |
64.77% |
67.69% |
-2.92% |
-2.76% |
基金汉鼎 |
65.88% |
68.80% |
-2.92% |
-2.76% |
基金金鼎 |
64.97% |
69.69% |
-4.72% |
-4.56% |
加权平均 |
65.94% |
66.57% |
-0.63% |
-0.47% |
仓位稳定 |
封闭式基金由于数据较少可能出现较大的个别误差；
加权平均仓位参考误差比例在5%以内。
数据统计：中信证券研究咨询部 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
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