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中信证券研究咨询部 江赛春
上周市场呈震荡回调走势，成交量持续萎缩。个股表现上仍然延续着前一周的特征，短线热点较为散乱、转换迅速，而蓝筹股则走势平淡，总体仍在调整之中。而从上周基金的仓位变动上来看，基金在仍未表现出明显的操作意向，大多数基金仓位小幅波动，平均仓位基本与前周持平。近一段时间基金总体上的观望态度与游资的活跃造成了目前市场投资主题的模糊与散乱。
基金仓位测算显示，上周五64只开放式基金加权平均仓位为62.85%，比前周的61.93%继续小幅上升了0.92%；封闭式基金方面，上周五加权平均仓位为66.57%，比前周的65.94%略增0.63%。从个别基金的仓位变动来看，少部分基金小幅增仓，但多数基金的操作意向并不明显。天治财富增长是唯一一只显示为增持的基金，南方稳健、合丰稳定、博时精选等6只基金仓位增加4%以上。在此以外的多数基金仓位变动幅度不大，考虑到持续两周来基金仓位基本保持稳定，基金的观望态度较为浓厚。
从近一段时间的市场运行特征看，市场在震荡中缺乏明确的热点和方向，投资主题呈现模糊和散乱的特征。重组股和低价股在11月10日以来的反弹中表现活跃，但并未显现出持续性，而是在各种概念之间迅速转换，短线资金推动的特征明显。而在另一方面基金重仓股基本处于小幅震荡之中，但调整幅度也较为有限。从基金仓位的微幅变动来看，基金的观望态度十分明显，这仍然反映出基金策略普遍倾向个股选择后在个股选择上出现的困惑。虽然近期短线资金表现活跃，但基金作为市场主力其动向则是决定大盘方向的一条主线。基金的观望态度与游资的短线特征难以形成合力，这就决定了大盘在当前位置上下两难的尴尬处境一时将难以改变，很可能持续目前震荡盘整的特征。
表一：开放式基金仓位测算结果
|
基金名称
|
本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
|
本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
天治增长 |
61.59% |
55.70% |
5.89% |
6.21% |
增持迹象 |
南方稳健 |
69.72% |
65.05% |
4.67% |
4.97% |
仓位稳定 |
合丰稳定 |
67.55% |
63.10% |
4.46% |
4.76% |
长盛动态 |
46.52% |
42.52% |
4.00% |
4.31% |
嘉实成长 |
72.47% |
68.58% |
3.89% |
4.18% |
博时精选 |
68.71% |
64.96% |
3.75% |
4.04% |
广发聚富 |
70.57% |
66.86% |
3.71% |
4.00% |
鹏华成长 |
57.95% |
54.32% |
3.63% |
3.95% |
长城久恒 |
70.44% |
66.81% |
3.63% |
3.92% |
中融行业 |
50.63% |
47.06% |
3.57% |
3.89% |
金鹰精选 |
74.58% |
71.03% |
3.55% |
3.82% |
国泰稳健 |
72.40% |
69.20% |
3.20% |
3.48% |
巨田基础 |
73.55% |
70.34% |
3.21% |
3.48% |
大成价值 |
66.19% |
63.02% |
3.17% |
3.47% |
荷银精选 |
65.42% |
62.82% |
2.60% |
2.91% |
长盛成长 |
71.22% |
68.65% |
2.56% |
2.84% |
普天收益 |
74.80% |
72.26% |
2.54% |
2.81% |
银河理财 |
52.59% |
50.16% |
2.42% |
2.75% |
富国价值 |
73.78% |
71.41% |
2.36% |
2.63% |
合丰周期 |
72.98% |
70.63% |
2.36% |
2.63% |
融通成长 |
41.61% |
39.32% |
2.29% |
2.60% |
泰信策略 |
67.04% |
64.94% |
2.09% |
2.39% |
宝康灵活 |
57.55% |
55.48% |
2.07% |
2.39% |
国泰精选 |
69.22% |
67.12% |
2.10% |
2.39% |
嘉实增长 |
59.53% |
57.55% |
1.97% |
2.29% |
鹏华 50 |
64.44% |
62.47% |
1.97% |
2.28% |
博时价值 |
80.00% |
78.04% |
1.96% |
2.19% |
银华优势 |
68.49% |
66.77% |
1.72% |
2.01% |
海富通收益 |
46.11% |
44.53% |
1.58% |
1.90% |
融通行业 |
62.73% |
61.18% |
1.54% |
1.85% |
申万精选 |
55.59% |
54.29% |
1.30% |
1.62% |
华夏成长 |
70.19% |
69.08% |
1.11% |
1.39% |
博时裕富 |
76.92% |
75.81% |
1.12% |
1.35% |
天同 180 |
80.00% |
78.87% |
1.13% |
1.34% |
国泰金鹰 |
63.06% |
62.10% |
0.96% |
1.26% |
易方达 50 |
76.03% |
75.09% |
0.93% |
1.18% |
华安创新 |
70.99% |
70.16% |
0.83% |
1.10% |
易方达策略 |
78.54% |
77.75% |
0.79% |
1.01% |
华安 180 |
78.84% |
78.16% |
0.68% |
0.91% |
景顺股票 |
66.95% |
66.37% |
0.58% |
0.87% |
嘉实服务 |
58.78% |
58.84% |
-0.06% |
0.26% |
招商股票 |
72.70% |
72.78% |
-0.08% |
0.18% |
融通 100 |
76.46% |
76.55% |
-0.10% |
0.14% |
招商平衡 |
50.15% |
50.37% |
-0.22% |
0.10% |
富国动态 |
64.57% |
65.05% |
-0.47% |
-0.18% |
华宝策略 |
65.92% |
66.84% |
-0.93% |
-0.64% |
长城久泰 |
75.67% |
76.55% |
-0.89% |
-0.65% |
宝康消费 |
64.97% |
65.92% |
-0.95% |
-0.66% |
海富通精选 |
72.74% |
73.77% |
-1.02% |
-0.77% |
易方达平稳 |
62.52% |
63.59% |
-1.08% |
-0.77% |
嘉实稳健 |
66.27% |
67.36% |
-1.09% |
-0.80% |
金鹰优选 |
74.16% |
75.58% |
-1.42% |
-1.18% |
银河稳健 |
64.47% |
66.21% |
-1.75% |
-1.45% |
华夏回报 |
57.21% |
59.03% |
-1.82% |
-1.50% |
大成稳健 |
59.29% |
61.17% |
-1.88% |
-1.57% |
宝盈鸿利 |
63.83% |
65.82% |
-1.99% |
-1.70% |
合丰成长 |
69.17% |
71.16% |
-1.99% |
-1.72% |
德盛稳健 |
56.17% |
58.29% |
-2.12% |
-1.80% |
招商先锋 |
66.98% |
69.22% |
-2.24% |
-1.96% |
德盛精选 |
54.10% |
56.70% |
-2.59% |
-2.27% |
诺安平衡 |
59.77% |
62.59% |
-2.82% |
-2.51% |
景顺内需 |
65.64% |
68.72% |
-3.09% |
-2.81% |
融通新蓝筹 |
60.40% |
63.59% |
-3.19% |
-2.89% |
景顺平衡 |
52.87% |
57.59% |
-4.73% |
-4.41% |
加权平均 |
62.85% |
61.93% |
0.92% |
1.25% |
仓位稳定 |
上表数据均依据公开信息测算，参考误差比例在5%以内，仅供参考。
数据来源：中信证券研究咨询部 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
表二：封闭式基金仓位测算结果
|
基金名称
|
本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
|
本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
基金汉兴 |
62.58% |
57.99% |
4.59% |
4.91% |
仓位稳定 |
基金通乾 |
67.32% |
63.23% |
4.09% |
4.39% |
基金金元 |
68.44% |
64.42% |
4.02% |
4.32% |
基金景博 |
67.42% |
64.20% |
3.22% |
3.52% |
基金同智 |
68.35% |
65.23% |
3.12% |
3.41% |
基金裕泽 |
66.32% |
63.23% |
3.09% |
3.39% |
基金裕华 |
70.68% |
67.69% |
2.99% |
3.27% |
基金普润 |
66.34% |
63.42% |
2.93% |
3.23% |
基金兴科 |
68.56% |
65.65% |
2.92% |
3.21% |
基金金鑫 |
68.57% |
65.69% |
2.88% |
3.18% |
基金金鼎 |
69.69% |
66.86% |
2.83% |
3.12% |
基金景阳 |
65.25% |
62.47% |
2.78% |
3.09% |
基金裕元 |
66.41% |
64.10% |
2.31% |
2.61% |
基金汉盛 |
67.52% |
65.25% |
2.28% |
2.57% |
基金泰和 |
65.31% |
63.10% |
2.21% |
2.51% |
基金安信 |
64.20% |
62.01% |
2.19% |
2.50% |
基金汉博 |
66.43% |
64.27% |
2.16% |
2.46% |
基金兴华 |
66.44% |
64.36% |
2.08% |
2.38% |
基金鸿飞 |
68.66% |
66.58% |
2.08% |
2.37% |
基金普华 |
64.52% |
62.47% |
2.06% |
2.36% |
基金科汇 |
70.69% |
68.70% |
1.98% |
2.27% |
基金天华 |
67.57% |
65.66% |
1.91% |
2.20% |
基金久富 |
69.79% |
67.87% |
1.92% |
2.20% |
基金兴安 |
67.57% |
65.66% |
1.91% |
2.20% |
基金景宏 |
72.01% |
70.10% |
1.91% |
2.18% |
基金隆元 |
65.35% |
63.55% |
1.81% |
2.11% |
基金鸿阳 |
72.02% |
70.20% |
1.82% |
2.09% |
基金久嘉 |
67.59% |
65.88% |
1.71% |
2.00% |
基金金盛 |
69.86% |
68.56% |
1.30% |
1.58% |
基金金泰 |
66.52% |
65.25% |
1.28% |
1.57% |
基金科讯 |
69.86% |
68.57% |
1.29% |
1.57% |
基金通宝 |
67.65% |
66.47% |
1.18% |
1.47% |
基金科翔 |
69.87% |
68.68% |
1.19% |
1.47% |
基金同德 |
74.31% |
73.10% |
1.21% |
1.46% |
基金同盛 |
68.77% |
67.70% |
1.07% |
1.35% |
基金天元 |
69.69% |
68.70% |
0.99% |
1.27% |
基金汉鼎 |
68.80% |
67.97% |
0.82% |
1.11% |
基金融鑫 |
67.69% |
66.87% |
0.82% |
1.11% |
基金兴和 |
62.13% |
61.35% |
0.79% |
1.10% |
基金安久 |
67.76% |
67.60% |
0.16% |
0.45% |
基金兴业 |
65.54% |
65.42% |
0.13% |
0.42% |
基金开元 |
67.77% |
67.67% |
0.10% |
0.38% |
基金丰和 |
70.11% |
70.70% |
-0.59% |
-0.32% |
基金裕阳 |
66.75% |
67.54% |
-0.78% |
-0.50% |
基金普丰 |
66.77% |
67.66% |
-0.90% |
-0.61% |
基金安瑞 |
62.40% |
64.00% |
-1.60% |
-1.30% |
基金银丰 |
65.77% |
67.68% |
-1.91% |
-1.63% |
基金安顺 |
60.22% |
62.25% |
-2.02% |
-1.72% |
基金景业 |
62.45% |
64.53% |
-2.07% |
-1.78% |
基金景福 |
62.45% |
64.54% |
-2.08% |
-1.78% |
基金同益 |
62.45% |
64.55% |
-2.09% |
-1.79% |
基金裕隆 |
65.88% |
68.78% |
-2.90% |
-2.62% |
基金科瑞 |
66.54% |
69.87% |
-3.33% |
-3.06% |
基金普惠 |
62.66% |
66.59% |
-3.93% |
-3.64% |
加权平均 |
66.57% |
65.94% |
0.63% |
0.92% |
仓位稳定 |
封闭式基金由于数据较少可能出现较大的个别误差；加权平均仓位参考误差比例在5%以内。
数据来源：中信证券咨询部 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
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