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中信证券研究咨询部 江赛春
上周市场在震荡中小幅上扬，市场表现较为温和，蓝筹股普遍温和上涨，而前期表现抢眼的潜蓝板块则继续震荡走高。从上周基金的操作来看，总体上基金仓位保持稳定，少部分轻仓基金仍有小幅增仓的迹象。
基金仓位测算显示，上周五64只开放式基金加权平均仓位为61.93%，比前周的60.80%小幅上升了1.13%；封闭式基金方面，上周五加权平均仓位为65.94%，与前周相比基本持平。从个别基金的仓位变动来看，显示为增持的基金明显减少，仅有富国动态一只基金；富国天益价值、天治财富增长、荷银精选、招商股票和巨田基础行业等5只基金仓位净增幅在4%以上。前几周的华夏回报。此外多数开放式基金仓位保持稳定，未见基金明显减仓。回顾近几周来的仓位变化，可以看到富国、招商、银河等基金公司旗下基金增持较为明显。从近几周基金仓位的变动上可以看到基金增仓的步伐正在逐步放缓。新发基金经过一轮持续增仓后仓位水平也有了较大幅度的提高，这与历年年底基金仓位处于低点有所不同，由此也可能导致行情的展开模式与过去有所不同。
从上周市场情况来看，市场指标股表现平稳，一贯走势坚挺的二线绩优板块则继续震荡走高，市场没有显现出明显的热点效应，但股价的结构性分化仍然在继续扩大。由此我们可以大致判断近一段时间来基金总体的增仓态势与以往有所不同，抛弃了过去在部分行业和板块集中建仓的做法，而是在板块上分散个股上集中。而由此带来的个股走势分化则进一步加剧了选股的困惑：在市场公认的绩优股已处于股价高位，而股价已明显下跌的绩差股仍不具投资价值的情况下如何挖掘新的投资机会？我们认为未来一段时间市场仍然将难以呈现显著的板块效应，投资机会仍然将在股价的结构性变化中。在对目前估值水平进行反思的基础上，股票估值必然向差别化、细致化的方向发展。
表一：开放式基金仓位测算结果
|
基金名称
|
本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
|
本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
富国动态 |
65.05% |
58.66% |
6.39% |
5.88% |
增持迹象 |
富国价值 |
71.41% |
66.09% |
5.32% |
4.86% |
仓位稳定 |
天治增长 |
55.70% |
50.33% |
5.37% |
4.85% |
荷银精选 |
62.82% |
57.65% |
5.17% |
4.66% |
招商股票 |
72.78% |
68.15% |
4.63% |
4.18% |
巨田基础 |
70.34% |
65.72% |
4.62% |
4.16% |
招商先锋 |
69.22% |
64.76% |
4.46% |
3.99% |
金鹰精选 |
71.03% |
66.71% |
4.32% |
3.86% |
金鹰优选 |
75.58% |
71.46% |
4.12% |
3.70% |
景顺内需 |
68.72% |
64.88% |
3.85% |
3.37% |
景顺平衡 |
57.59% |
53.75% |
3.85% |
3.33% |
合丰成长 |
71.16% |
67.74% |
3.41% |
2.96% |
长盛成长 |
68.65% |
66.14% |
2.51% |
2.05% |
博时精选 |
64.96% |
62.43% |
2.53% |
2.04% |
海富通精选 |
73.77% |
71.31% |
2.46% |
2.04% |
嘉实稳健 |
67.36% |
64.95% |
2.41% |
1.94% |
申万精选 |
54.29% |
51.97% |
2.33% |
1.81% |
华安 180 |
78.16% |
76.09% |
2.07% |
1.69% |
华夏回报 |
59.03% |
56.99% |
2.04% |
1.53% |
诺安平衡 |
62.59% |
60.60% |
1.99% |
1.49% |
招商平衡 |
50.37% |
48.51% |
1.86% |
1.34% |
嘉实服务 |
58.84% |
57.05% |
1.79% |
1.28% |
德盛稳健 |
58.29% |
56.54% |
1.75% |
1.24% |
大成价值 |
63.02% |
61.31% |
1.71% |
1.22% |
长城久泰 |
76.55% |
75.21% |
1.34% |
0.96% |
宝康消费 |
65.92% |
64.52% |
1.40% |
0.93% |
宝康灵活 |
55.48% |
54.08% |
1.40% |
0.89% |
德盛精选 |
56.70% |
55.30% |
1.39% |
0.88% |
长盛动态 |
42.52% |
41.23% |
1.29% |
0.79% |
国泰精选 |
67.12% |
66.05% |
1.07% |
0.60% |
国泰稳健 |
69.20% |
68.16% |
1.04% |
0.59% |
易方达 50 |
75.09% |
74.15% |
0.95% |
0.55% |
合丰周期 |
70.63% |
69.70% |
0.93% |
0.49% |
海富通收益 |
44.53% |
43.57% |
0.96% |
0.45% |
合丰稳定 |
63.10% |
62.19% |
0.91% |
0.43% |
普天收益 |
72.26% |
71.42% |
0.84% |
0.42% |
银河理财 |
50.16% |
49.29% |
0.88% |
0.36% |
华夏成长 |
69.08% |
68.28% |
0.80% |
0.35% |
博时价值 |
78.04% |
77.50% |
0.53% |
0.17% |
鹏华 50 |
62.47% |
61.87% |
0.60% |
0.11% |
银华优势 |
66.77% |
66.34% |
0.43% |
-0.03% |
国泰金鹰 |
62.10% |
61.71% |
0.39% |
-0.10% |
宝盈鸿利 |
65.82% |
65.66% |
0.16% |
-0.31% |
易方达平稳 |
63.59% |
63.47% |
0.12% |
-0.36% |
天同 180 |
78.87% |
78.99% |
-0.11% |
-0.46% |
嘉实成长 |
68.58% |
68.60% |
-0.02% |
-0.47% |
泰信策略 |
64.94% |
64.97% |
-0.03% |
-0.50% |
长城久恒 |
66.81% |
66.89% |
-0.08% |
-0.54% |
融通 100 |
76.55% |
76.73% |
-0.18% |
-0.55% |
融通成长 |
39.32% |
39.49% |
-0.18% |
-0.67% |
华安创新 |
70.16% |
70.43% |
-0.27% |
-0.70% |
博时裕富 |
75.81% |
76.15% |
-0.34% |
-0.71% |
银河稳健 |
66.21% |
66.58% |
-0.36% |
-0.82% |
大成稳健 |
61.17% |
61.58% |
-0.41% |
-0.90% |
易方达策略 |
77.75% |
78.55% |
-0.79% |
-1.14% |
融通行业 |
61.18% |
61.88% |
-0.69% |
-1.18% |
华宝策略 |
66.84% |
67.65% |
-0.80% |
-1.25% |
景顺股票 |
66.37% |
67.19% |
-0.82% |
-1.27% |
融通新蓝筹 |
63.59% |
64.46% |
-0.87% |
-1.35% |
广发聚富 |
66.86% |
67.99% |
-1.12% |
-1.57% |
南方稳健 |
65.05% |
66.98% |
-1.93% |
-2.39% |
中融行业 |
47.06% |
49.67% |
-2.61% |
-3.13% |
嘉实增长 |
57.55% |
60.58% |
-3.03% |
-3.52% |
鹏华成长 |
54.32% |
58.47% |
-4.15% |
-4.65% |
加权平均 |
61.93% |
60.80% |
1.13% |
0.64% |
仓位稳定 |
上表数据均依据公开信息测算，参考误差比例在5%以内，仅供参考。
数据来源：中信证券研究咨询部 截至：2004-11-19 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
表二：封闭式基金仓位测算结果
|
基金名称
|
本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
|
本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
基金安瑞 |
64.00% |
60.03% |
3.98% |
3.48% |
仓位稳定 |
基金裕阳 |
67.54% |
63.76% |
3.78% |
3.30% |
基金裕元 |
64.10% |
61.02% |
3.08% |
2.59% |
基金金盛 |
68.56% |
65.57% |
2.99% |
2.52% |
基金科讯 |
68.57% |
65.67% |
2.90% |
2.43% |
基金汉盛 |
65.25% |
62.47% |
2.78% |
2.29% |
基金景博 |
64.20% |
62.03% |
2.17% |
1.68% |
基金同德 |
73.10% |
71.02% |
2.08% |
1.65% |
基金泰和 |
63.10% |
61.03% |
2.07% |
1.58% |
基金科翔 |
68.68% |
66.80% |
1.88% |
1.42% |
基金安信 |
62.01% |
60.13% |
1.89% |
1.39% |
基金通宝 |
66.47% |
64.68% |
1.79% |
1.32% |
基金同智 |
65.23% |
63.47% |
1.77% |
1.29% |
基金科汇 |
68.70% |
67.02% |
1.68% |
1.22% |
基金安久 |
67.60% |
65.98% |
1.62% |
1.15% |
基金汉博 |
64.27% |
62.67% |
1.60% |
1.11% |
基金兴业 |
65.42% |
64.16% |
1.26% |
0.78% |
基金科瑞 |
69.87% |
68.70% |
1.17% |
0.72% |
基金普丰 |
67.66% |
66.65% |
1.02% |
0.56% |
基金丰和 |
70.70% |
69.70% |
0.99% |
0.56% |
基金裕隆 |
68.78% |
67.77% |
1.01% |
0.56% |
基金金泰 |
65.25% |
64.25% |
1.00% |
0.52% |
基金开元 |
67.67% |
66.70% |
0.97% |
0.51% |
基金银丰 |
67.68% |
66.80% |
0.88% |
0.42% |
基金通乾 |
63.23% |
62.35% |
0.89% |
0.40% |
基金裕华 |
67.69% |
66.87% |
0.81% |
0.36% |
基金兴华 |
64.36% |
63.57% |
0.79% |
0.31% |
基金普惠 |
66.59% |
65.89% |
0.70% |
0.24% |
基金同盛 |
67.70% |
67.01% |
0.69% |
0.23% |
基金金元 |
64.42% |
64.25% |
0.18% |
-0.30% |
基金裕泽 |
63.23% |
63.25% |
-0.02% |
-0.50% |
基金鸿飞 |
66.58% |
66.80% |
-0.22% |
-0.68% |
基金安顺 |
62.25% |
62.47% |
-0.22% |
-0.70% |
基金景业 |
64.53% |
65.28% |
-0.75% |
-1.22% |
基金普润 |
63.42% |
64.16% |
-0.74% |
-1.22% |
基金久富 |
67.87% |
68.69% |
-0.82% |
-1.27% |
基金景福 |
64.54% |
65.36% |
-0.82% |
-1.29% |
基金兴科 |
65.65% |
66.48% |
-0.83% |
-1.29% |
基金景宏 |
70.10% |
71.01% |
-0.91% |
-1.33% |
基金天华 |
65.66% |
66.56% |
-0.91% |
-1.37% |
基金同益 |
64.55% |
65.45% |
-0.91% |
-1.38% |
基金兴安 |
65.66% |
66.59% |
-0.93% |
-1.39% |
基金金鑫 |
65.69% |
66.87% |
-1.18% |
-1.64% |
基金天元 |
68.70% |
70.12% |
-1.42% |
-1.85% |
基金金鼎 |
66.86% |
68.59% |
-1.73% |
-2.17% |
基金汉鼎 |
67.97% |
69.73% |
-1.76% |
-2.20% |
基金鸿阳 |
70.20% |
72.02% |
-1.82% |
-2.24% |
基金融鑫 |
66.87% |
68.70% |
-1.83% |
-2.28% |
基金汉兴 |
57.99% |
59.88% |
-1.89% |
-2.39% |
基金隆元 |
63.55% |
65.47% |
-1.92% |
-2.39% |
基金兴和 |
61.35% |
63.47% |
-2.12% |
-2.60% |
基金景阳 |
62.47% |
64.66% |
-2.19% |
-2.66% |
基金普华 |
62.47% |
64.69% |
-2.22% |
-2.69% |
基金久嘉 |
65.88% |
68.79% |
-2.91% |
-3.35% |
加权平均 |
65.94% |
65.70% |
0.25% |
-0.22% |
仓位稳定 |
封闭式基金由于数据较少可能出现较大的个别误差；加权平均仓位参考误差比例在5%以内。
数据来源：中信证券研究咨询部 截至：2004-11-19 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
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