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中信证券研究咨询部 江赛春
在2005年的第一周市场表现令人失望，在石化股集体大跌的带动下股指加速下探，在周中反复反弹后仍然以下跌趋势报收。而以石化为首的蓝筹股成为做空的最大力量，前期表现强劲的钢铁、航空等均出现补跌走势。从上周基金的操作来看，不少基金呈现小幅减仓迹象，部分基金甚至减仓明显。可见有部分基金资金在盘中加入了杀跌行列，以如此方式进
行持仓结构调整将对市场造成较大冲击。
基金仓位测算显示，上周五64只开放式基金加权平均仓位为62.50%，，比前周的62.74%微降了0.24个百分点；封闭式基金方面，上周五加权平均仓位为66.09%，比前周的66.66%小幅下降0.57%。虽然总体仓位水平仍然变化不大，但从个别基金的仓位变动来看，不少基金仓位显示出较明显的减持迹象，开放式基金中尤为突出。普天收益减持幅度13.20%，成为上周减仓最明显的基金；同为鹏华旗下的鹏华行业成长也减持了5.66%。此外两只仓位较轻的新基金泰信策略和天治财富增长也显示为减持，表明不少基金对短期内后市的看法又趋于悲观。但在另一方面，也有少部分基金显示为仓位增加，如巨田基础行业基金仓位增幅达4.91%。
从新年第一周的市场跌势来看，05年市场一开局就凸显出诸多不确定性因素对基金投资带来的不利影响。在非流通股股权转让、中国石化(资讯 行情 论坛)调整成品油出厂价格等消息的影响下，股指大幅跳空低开，齐鲁石化(资讯 行情 论坛)、扬子石化(资讯 行情 论坛)等甚至罕见地齐齐以跌停开盘。由此带动的蓝筹股普跌使上证指数(资讯 行情 论坛)一度快速下泻30点。而从基金的反应来看，小幅度减仓更像是一种被动的结构调整。去年年底市场的长时间震荡已经给基金充分的调仓时间，但新的不确定性因素出现又改变了部分基金的预期，于是无奈加入了杀跌行列。由于市场人气低迷，在成交量并未明显放大的情况下市场出现大跌，做空力量明显占据了上风。虽然如此，但基金之间一直存在着分歧，这也使多数基金并未加入杀跌的行列。但若基本面和非基本面的负面因素逐渐累积，不排除将有更多基金偏向悲观，这将对市场带来较大冲击。目前困扰大盘的非基本面因素主要包括非流通股转让的影响等，由于市场普遍担心这些因素会对二级市场价格形成压制，由于这些因素的不确定性影响仍未消除，多看、少动，适时调整的防御型策略成为大多数基金的策略选择。
开放式基金仓位测算结果
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基金名称
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本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
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本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
巨田基础 |
74.36% |
69.45% |
4.91% |
5.11% |
增持迹象 |
华夏回报 |
60.26% |
56.69% |
3.56% |
3.80% |
仓位稳定 |
嘉实服务 |
60.18% |
56.75% |
3.43% |
3.67% |
融通成长 |
58.60% |
55.40% |
3.20% |
3.44% |
德盛精选 |
54.78% |
51.78% |
3.01% |
3.25% |
长盛动态 |
58.62% |
55.74% |
2.88% |
3.12% |
大成稳健 |
69.79% |
67.36% |
2.42% |
2.64% |
申万精选 |
54.60% |
52.29% |
2.31% |
2.56% |
金鹰精选 |
65.62% |
63.58% |
2.04% |
2.26% |
博时裕富 |
78.24% |
76.55% |
1.69% |
1.87% |
长盛成长 |
70.21% |
68.74% |
1.47% |
1.68% |
国泰精选 |
63.01% |
61.65% |
1.36% |
1.59% |
合丰周期 |
73.79% |
72.43% |
1.36% |
1.56% |
银河稳健 |
65.47% |
64.27% |
1.20% |
1.42% |
海富通精选 |
64.83% |
64.32% |
0.51% |
0.73% |
广发聚富 |
74.97% |
74.50% |
0.47% |
0.65% |
博时精选 |
66.92% |
66.49% |
0.43% |
0.65% |
融通新蓝筹 |
70.61% |
70.31% |
0.30% |
0.50% |
诺安平衡 |
67.28% |
67.19% |
0.09% |
0.30% |
嘉实增长 |
67.07% |
67.09% |
-0.02% |
0.19% |
金鹰优选 |
80.00% |
80.00% |
0.00% |
0.16% |
华夏成长 |
67.59% |
67.90% |
-0.31% |
-0.10% |
银华优势 |
73.91% |
74.39% |
-0.48% |
-0.29% |
长城久泰 |
73.66% |
74.23% |
-0.57% |
-0.39% |
银河理财 |
58.07% |
58.75% |
-0.68% |
-0.44% |
南方稳健 |
61.87% |
62.55% |
-0.68% |
-0.45% |
景顺内需 |
62.81% |
63.60% |
-0.79% |
-0.56% |
大成价值 |
66.86% |
67.70% |
-0.84% |
-0.63% |
博时价值 |
75.68% |
76.58% |
-0.90% |
-0.73% |
宝盈鸿利 |
65.47% |
66.41% |
-0.94% |
-0.73% |
海富通收益 |
46.38% |
47.40% |
-1.02% |
-0.78% |
华宝策略 |
64.59% |
65.75% |
-1.16% |
-0.94% |
华安 180 |
74.27% |
75.41% |
-1.14% |
-0.96% |
易方达 50 |
75.21% |
76.40% |
-1.19% |
-1.01% |
嘉实成长 |
64.76% |
66.12% |
-1.36% |
-1.15% |
长城久恒 |
63.27% |
64.67% |
-1.41% |
-1.18% |
融通 100 |
73.27% |
74.66% |
-1.39% |
-1.21% |
合丰成长 |
72.70% |
74.24% |
-1.54% |
-1.36% |
招商先锋 |
65.39% |
67.03% |
-1.64% |
-1.42% |
招商平衡 |
48.60% |
50.29% |
-1.69% |
-1.45% |
景顺股票 |
60.58% |
62.59% |
-2.01% |
-1.78% |
国泰稳健 |
61.27% |
63.51% |
-2.24% |
-2.02% |
易方达平稳 |
62.07% |
64.33% |
-2.26% |
-2.03% |
合丰稳定 |
62.99% |
65.26% |
-2.27% |
-2.05% |
招商股票 |
68.37% |
70.66% |
-2.30% |
-2.10% |
鹏华 50 |
62.56% |
64.97% |
-2.40% |
-2.18% |
国泰金鹰 |
60.59% |
63.09% |
-2.50% |
-2.27% |
融通行业 |
62.44% |
64.98% |
-2.54% |
-2.32% |
富国价值 |
66.41% |
69.11% |
-2.70% |
-2.49% |
华安创新 |
69.86% |
72.73% |
-2.87% |
-2.68% |
中融行业 |
42.39% |
45.38% |
-2.99% |
-2.75% |
富国动态 |
58.37% |
61.39% |
-3.02% |
-2.79% |
德盛稳健 |
61.99% |
65.03% |
-3.04% |
-2.81% |
景顺平衡 |
48.66% |
51.85% |
-3.19% |
-2.95% |
易方达策略 |
72.04% |
75.45% |
-3.41% |
-3.23% |
天同 180 |
75.75% |
79.36% |
-3.61% |
-3.45% |
荷银精选 |
61.24% |
64.93% |
-3.69% |
-3.47% |
宝康灵活 |
54.02% |
58.09% |
-4.07% |
-3.83% |
嘉实稳健 |
58.28% |
62.59% |
-4.30% |
-4.07% |
宝康消费 |
65.17% |
69.73% |
-4.56% |
-4.36% |
鹏华成长 |
60.57% |
66.23% |
-5.66% |
-5.44% |
减持迹象 |
泰信策略 |
56.48% |
62.61% |
-6.13% |
-5.90% |
天治增长 |
50.36% |
58.43% |
-8.08% |
-7.84% |
普天收益 |
61.38% |
74.58% |
-13.20% |
-13.01% |
加权平均 |
62.50% |
62.74% |
-0.24% |
-0.01% |
仓位稳定 |
* 上表数据均依据公开信息测算，参考误差比例在5%以内，仅供参考。
资料来源：中信证券研究咨询部 截至:2005-01-07 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
封闭式基金仓位测算
|
基金名称
|
本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
|
本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
基金科汇 |
68.68% |
66.79% |
1.89% |
2.11% |
仓位稳定 |
基金金元 |
67.57% |
65.69% |
1.88% |
2.10% |
基金兴安 |
62.06% |
60.59% |
1.47% |
1.70% |
基金汉博 |
67.64% |
66.35% |
1.28% |
1.50% |
基金兴和 |
65.43% |
64.32% |
1.11% |
1.33% |
基金普丰 |
67.65% |
66.54% |
1.11% |
1.33% |
基金普华 |
67.65% |
66.54% |
1.11% |
1.33% |
基金久富 |
66.55% |
65.47% |
1.08% |
1.30% |
基金金鑫 |
66.56% |
65.57% |
0.99% |
1.21% |
基金景业 |
65.45% |
64.53% |
0.92% |
1.14% |
基金开元 |
65.46% |
64.55% |
0.90% |
1.12% |
基金融鑫 |
65.46% |
64.58% |
0.88% |
1.10% |
基金金泰 |
64.35% |
63.53% |
0.82% |
1.05% |
基金天元 |
64.36% |
63.57% |
0.79% |
1.01% |
基金天华 |
65.48% |
64.75% |
0.72% |
0.94% |
基金汉鼎 |
67.76% |
67.58% |
0.18% |
0.39% |
基金丰和 |
68.88% |
68.77% |
0.11% |
0.32% |
基金裕泽 |
68.89% |
68.87% |
0.01% |
0.22% |
基金安瑞 |
65.58% |
65.75% |
-0.18% |
0.04% |
基金安信 |
65.58% |
65.76% |
-0.18% |
0.04% |
基金兴业 |
68.96% |
69.57% |
-0.62% |
-0.41% |
基金安顺 |
66.75% |
67.54% |
-0.79% |
-0.58% |
基金普润 |
66.75% |
67.55% |
-0.79% |
-0.58% |
基金景博 |
66.75% |
67.55% |
-0.79% |
-0.58% |
基金安久 |
65.64% |
66.45% |
-0.80% |
-0.59% |
基金科瑞 |
66.76% |
67.56% |
-0.81% |
-0.59% |
基金同盛 |
65.65% |
66.47% |
-0.82% |
-0.61% |
基金景宏 |
71.20% |
72.00% |
-0.80% |
-0.61% |
基金鸿阳 |
66.76% |
67.59% |
-0.83% |
-0.62% |
基金汉兴 |
63.43% |
64.35% |
-0.91% |
-0.69% |
基金兴华 |
64.55% |
65.47% |
-0.92% |
-0.70% |
基金普惠 |
65.67% |
66.65% |
-0.99% |
-0.77% |
基金久嘉 |
65.68% |
66.76% |
-1.08% |
-0.87% |
基金科翔 |
66.79% |
67.87% |
-1.08% |
-0.87% |
基金裕华 |
70.12% |
71.21% |
-1.09% |
-0.89% |
基金隆元 |
65.68% |
66.79% |
-1.11% |
-0.89% |
基金裕元 |
64.57% |
65.69% |
-1.12% |
-0.90% |
基金金鼎 |
66.80% |
67.95% |
-1.16% |
-0.95% |
基金鸿飞 |
64.59% |
65.88% |
-1.29% |
-1.07% |
基金裕阳 |
66.48% |
67.87% |
-1.39% |
-1.18% |
基金景福 |
64.64% |
66.42% |
-1.78% |
-1.56% |
基金同益 |
62.42% |
64.23% |
-1.81% |
-1.59% |
基金银丰 |
66.87% |
68.66% |
-1.80% |
-1.59% |
基金同德 |
70.20% |
72.01% |
-1.81% |
-1.61% |
基金科讯 |
66.88% |
68.76% |
-1.88% |
-1.67% |
基金裕隆 |
67.99% |
69.87% |
-1.88% |
-1.67% |
基金泰和 |
63.54% |
65.44% |
-1.90% |
-1.68% |
基金兴科 |
64.66% |
66.57% |
-1.91% |
-1.70% |
基金金盛 |
65.78% |
67.76% |
-1.98% |
-1.77% |
基金通乾 |
68.71% |
70.68% |
-1.97% |
-1.77% |
基金同智 |
62.46% |
64.56% |
-2.11% |
-1.88% |
基金景阳 |
62.47% |
64.66% |
-2.19% |
-1.97% |
基金汉盛 |
65.80% |
67.99% |
-2.19% |
-1.98% |
基金通宝 |
65.88% |
68.77% |
-2.89% |
-2.68% |
加权平均 |
66.09% |
66.66% |
-0.57% |
-0.35% |
仓位稳定 |
* 封闭式基金由于数据较少可能出现较大的个别误差；
加权平均仓位参考误差比例在5%以内。
资料来源：中信证券研究咨询部 截至:2005-01-07 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
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