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中信证券研究咨询部 江赛春
在2004年的最后一周市场表现可谓波澜不惊，股指在小幅震荡中持续滑落，并以接近全周最低点位收盘。市场预期的机构做帐行情并不明显，仅在个别品种上有所体现。蓝筹股的总体表现仍缺乏亮点，但已有比较充分的企稳迹象。而从上周基金的操作来看，基金也同样以谨慎的观望态度结束了2004年的操作。上周基金仓位小幅回升，但基金之间的操作仍
然有一定的分化。基金仍然保持着谨慎态度，仓位总体变化不大，但在各基金之间略有分化。观望中带有谨慎乐观。
基金仓位测算显示，上周五64只开放式基金加权平均仓位为62.74%，比前周的61.78%提高了0.95个百分点；而考虑到上周大盘下跌2.23%，基金仓位净提高1.5%，相对来说增持较为明显。封闭式基金方面，上周五加权平均仓位为66.66%，比前周的66.16%继续回升了0.5%。从个别基金的仓位变动来看，不少基金仓位有小幅回升。三只开放式基金诺安平衡、宝康消费和融通新蓝筹显示为增持，此外招商先锋、招商平衡、银华优势等6只基金仓位增幅在4%以上。但与此同时基金之间操作也仍现分化，天治财富增长、中融行业景气等两只基金仓位也下降了4%以上。
从上周市场情况来看，基金重仓股的总体表现仍然乏善可陈，但钢铁、航空等板块则持续着前期的强势。我们认为基金在年底的操作以仓位调整为主，由各重仓板块和龙头蓝筹股的相对强弱大致可以看出基金仓位调整的方向。但由于基金策略仍然进一步强调向个股倾斜，板块效应并不明显，我们还很难看出基金仓位调整的清晰方向。回顾基金在2004年的操作，在年初至4月的行情中基金以去年的行业景气操作思路为主，而在4月以后市场的全面下挫则定下了基金在全年的调整基调。在弱市下基金的增仓行为并没有显著地影响市场，而在幅度不大的几波反弹行情中基金也获益有限。
从各基金对2005年的策略展望来看，各基金对主导明年市场的主要因素仍存有分歧；如上投摩根富林明基金认为，2005年主要关注抗周期性的行业、瓶颈行业及人民币升值的长期受益行业，对银行业、零售业、航空业、医药业、化肥业、食品业和港口业等比较看好，对地产业、汽车业、电力、能源和原材料等行业比较看淡。而易方达基金则看好有品牌、有营销网络的消费品类生产企业，坚决看淡汽车股，相对看淡金融股，钢铁、石化、电力存在着阶段性的机会。各基金之间的分歧决定了短期内基金难以形成合力，2005年年初的投资机会仍将在局部得以体现。
表一：开放式基金仓位测算结果
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基金名称
|
本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
|
本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
诺安平衡 |
67.19% |
62.01% |
5.18% |
5.72% |
增持迹象 |
宝康消费 |
69.73% |
64.57% |
5.16% |
5.67% |
融通新蓝筹 |
70.31% |
65.76% |
4.55% |
5.06% |
招商先锋 |
67.03% |
62.99% |
4.03% |
4.56% |
仓位稳定 |
招商平衡 |
50.29% |
46.45% |
3.84% |
4.40% |
银华优势 |
74.39% |
70.50% |
3.89% |
4.36% |
华宝策略 |
65.75% |
62.00% |
3.75% |
4.28% |
长盛成长 |
68.74% |
64.98% |
3.76% |
4.27% |
嘉实增长 |
67.09% |
63.46% |
3.63% |
4.15% |
大成稳健 |
67.36% |
63.90% |
3.46% |
3.98% |
广发聚富 |
74.50% |
71.03% |
3.47% |
3.94% |
嘉实服务 |
56.75% |
53.39% |
3.36% |
3.92% |
富国动态 |
61.39% |
58.27% |
3.13% |
3.68% |
博时裕富 |
76.55% |
73.42% |
3.13% |
3.57% |
大成价值 |
67.70% |
64.65% |
3.05% |
3.57% |
融通成长 |
55.40% |
52.49% |
2.91% |
3.47% |
招商股票 |
70.66% |
67.74% |
2.93% |
3.42% |
宝康灵活 |
58.09% |
55.36% |
2.72% |
3.28% |
长盛动态 |
55.74% |
53.08% |
2.66% |
3.22% |
申万精选 |
52.29% |
49.64% |
2.65% |
3.21% |
合丰周期 |
72.43% |
69.80% |
2.63% |
3.11% |
金鹰优选 |
80.00% |
77.32% |
2.68% |
3.08% |
银河理财 |
58.75% |
56.30% |
2.45% |
3.00% |
华安创新 |
72.73% |
70.39% |
2.33% |
2.81% |
荷银精选 |
64.93% |
62.83% |
2.10% |
2.63% |
景顺平衡 |
51.85% |
49.82% |
2.04% |
2.60% |
景顺内需 |
63.60% |
61.59% |
2.00% |
2.54% |
合丰成长 |
74.24% |
72.48% |
1.76% |
2.21% |
鹏华成长 |
66.23% |
64.86% |
1.37% |
1.89% |
华安 180 |
75.41% |
74.04% |
1.36% |
1.80% |
易方达 50 |
76.40% |
75.04% |
1.36% |
1.78% |
鹏华 50 |
64.97% |
63.74% |
1.22% |
1.75% |
博时价值 |
76.58% |
75.34% |
1.24% |
1.66% |
普天收益 |
74.58% |
73.44% |
1.14% |
1.58% |
巨田基础 |
69.45% |
68.39% |
1.06% |
1.55% |
融通 100 |
74.66% |
73.66% |
1.00% |
1.44% |
长城久泰 |
74.23% |
73.27% |
0.96% |
1.41% |
德盛稳健 |
65.03% |
64.20% |
0.83% |
1.35% |
天同 180 |
79.36% |
78.58% |
0.78% |
1.16% |
国泰稳健 |
63.51% |
63.16% |
0.35% |
0.87% |
华夏回报 |
56.69% |
56.39% |
0.31% |
0.86% |
宝盈鸿利 |
66.41% |
66.08% |
0.33% |
0.84% |
博时精选 |
66.49% |
66.31% |
0.18% |
0.69% |
嘉实成长 |
66.12% |
66.25% |
-0.12% |
0.38% |
华夏成长 |
67.90% |
68.24% |
-0.34% |
0.15% |
富国价值 |
69.11% |
69.48% |
-0.36% |
0.12% |
银河稳健 |
64.27% |
64.94% |
-0.67% |
-0.15% |
长城久恒 |
64.67% |
65.34% |
-0.67% |
-0.16% |
融通行业 |
64.98% |
65.85% |
-0.87% |
-0.36% |
海富通收益 |
47.40% |
48.65% |
-1.26% |
-0.69% |
南方稳健 |
62.55% |
64.02% |
-1.47% |
-0.95% |
海富通精选 |
64.32% |
66.04% |
-1.72% |
-1.21% |
合丰稳定 |
65.26% |
67.10% |
-1.84% |
-1.34% |
国泰精选 |
61.65% |
63.60% |
-1.95% |
-1.42% |
德盛精选 |
51.78% |
53.84% |
-2.06% |
-1.50% |
金鹰精选 |
63.58% |
65.74% |
-2.16% |
-1.65% |
易方达平稳 |
64.33% |
66.56% |
-2.24% |
-1.73% |
国泰金鹰 |
63.09% |
65.75% |
-2.67% |
-2.16% |
易方达策略 |
75.45% |
78.15% |
-2.70% |
-2.31% |
嘉实稳健 |
62.59% |
65.69% |
-3.10% |
-2.59% |
景顺股票 |
62.59% |
65.76% |
-3.17% |
-2.66% |
泰信策略 |
62.61% |
66.33% |
-3.72% |
-3.21% |
中融行业 |
45.38% |
50.48% |
-5.10% |
-4.53% |
天治增长 |
58.43% |
63.50% |
-5.07% |
-4.54% |
加权平均 |
62.74% |
61.78% |
0.95% |
1.50% |
仓位稳定 |
* 上表数据均依据公开信息测算，参考误差比例在5%以内，仅供参考。
资料来源：中信证券研究咨询部 截至：2004-12-31 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
表二：封闭式基金仓位测算结果
|
基金名称
|
本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
|
本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
基金汉博 |
66.35% |
63.55% |
2.81% |
3.33% |
仓位稳定 |
基金景福 |
66.42% |
64.22% |
2.20% |
2.72% |
基金银丰 |
68.66% |
66.47% |
2.20% |
2.70% |
基金兴业 |
69.57% |
67.43% |
2.15% |
2.65% |
基金安顺 |
67.54% |
65.43% |
2.11% |
2.62% |
基金普润 |
67.55% |
65.45% |
2.09% |
2.60% |
基金景博 |
67.55% |
65.47% |
2.07% |
2.58% |
基金安久 |
66.45% |
64.47% |
1.98% |
2.50% |
基金兴安 |
60.59% |
58.66% |
1.93% |
2.48% |
基金景宏 |
72.00% |
70.02% |
1.98% |
2.46% |
基金科瑞 |
67.56% |
65.62% |
1.94% |
2.45% |
基金同益 |
64.23% |
62.32% |
1.91% |
2.44% |
基金同德 |
72.01% |
70.10% |
1.91% |
2.38% |
基金同盛 |
66.47% |
64.69% |
1.78% |
2.30% |
基金汉鼎 |
67.58% |
65.79% |
1.78% |
2.29% |
基金鸿阳 |
67.59% |
65.87% |
1.72% |
2.23% |
基金裕泽 |
68.87% |
67.35% |
1.53% |
2.03% |
基金裕隆 |
69.87% |
68.65% |
1.21% |
1.70% |
基金科讯 |
68.76% |
67.57% |
1.19% |
1.68% |
基金兴和 |
64.32% |
63.22% |
1.10% |
1.63% |
基金普丰 |
66.54% |
65.43% |
1.11% |
1.62% |
基金普华 |
66.54% |
65.44% |
1.11% |
1.62% |
基金通宝 |
68.77% |
67.66% |
1.11% |
1.60% |
基金丰和 |
68.77% |
67.68% |
1.09% |
1.58% |
基金泰和 |
65.44% |
64.43% |
1.01% |
1.53% |
基金汉兴 |
64.35% |
63.45% |
0.89% |
1.42% |
基金通乾 |
70.68% |
69.77% |
0.91% |
1.39% |
基金兴科 |
66.57% |
65.69% |
0.88% |
1.39% |
基金兴华 |
65.47% |
64.65% |
0.81% |
1.33% |
基金久富 |
65.47% |
64.67% |
0.80% |
1.31% |
基金金盛 |
67.76% |
67.57% |
0.19% |
0.68% |
基金普惠 |
66.65% |
66.53% |
0.12% |
0.62% |
基金金鑫 |
65.57% |
65.68% |
-0.11% |
0.40% |
基金天华 |
64.75% |
65.23% |
-0.48% |
0.03% |
基金景业 |
64.53% |
65.31% |
-0.78% |
-0.27% |
基金裕阳 |
67.87% |
68.66% |
-0.79% |
-0.31% |
基金科翔 |
67.87% |
68.67% |
-0.80% |
-0.31% |
基金久嘉 |
66.76% |
67.57% |
-0.81% |
-0.32% |
基金裕华 |
71.21% |
72.11% |
-0.90% |
-0.44% |
基金开元 |
64.55% |
65.55% |
-0.99% |
-0.48% |
基金同智 |
64.56% |
65.63% |
-1.06% |
-0.55% |
基金科汇 |
66.79% |
67.87% |
-1.08% |
-0.59% |
基金隆元 |
66.79% |
67.89% |
-1.10% |
-0.61% |
基金裕元 |
65.69% |
66.86% |
-1.17% |
-0.67% |
基金金元 |
65.69% |
66.87% |
-1.18% |
-0.68% |
基金融鑫 |
64.58% |
65.77% |
-1.20% |
-0.69% |
基金金鼎 |
67.95% |
69.53% |
-1.58% |
-1.10% |
基金安瑞 |
65.75% |
67.52% |
-1.77% |
-1.27% |
基金金泰 |
63.53% |
65.32% |
-1.79% |
-1.28% |
基金安信 |
65.76% |
67.57% |
-1.81% |
-1.31% |
基金汉盛 |
67.99% |
69.87% |
-1.88% |
-1.40% |
基金景阳 |
64.66% |
66.58% |
-1.92% |
-1.42% |
基金天元 |
63.57% |
65.70% |
-2.13% |
-1.62% |
基金鸿飞 |
65.88% |
68.79% |
-2.91% |
-2.42% |
加权平均 |
66.66% |
66.16% |
0.50% |
1.01% |
仓位稳定 |
* 封闭式基金由于数据较少可能出现较大的个别误差；加权平均仓位参考误差比例在5%以内。
资料来源：中信证券研究咨询部 截至：2004-12-31 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
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