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汇丰晋信：07年5月全球策略与展望http://www.sina.com.cn 2007年05月24日 19:00 汇丰晋信基金管理有限公司
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The global economic outlook remains supportive for financial markets. Whilst it is clear that the US economy has slowed, the rest of the world is continuing to perform solidly, with growth in Emerging Markets leading the way. Inflation remains relatively benign and we expect that monetary policy around the world will remain quite stable with only gradual incremental change through 2007. 全球经济前景对金融市场仍然构成支撑。尽管美国经济放缓已经定局，其他国家仍然表现良好，新兴市场一马当先。通胀仍相对温和，我们预计全球货币政策在2007年将保持平稳，会有渐进的小幅度变动。 The US is on track to achieve a soft landing. The slow down in housing has affected domestic demand in the economy, and US GDP has slowed from over 3.5% growth for the first half of 2006 to around 2.5% for the past 6 months. Despite the general slow down, the positive signs are that US employment remains relatively solid and consumer expenditure is doing well. Business investment has been disappointing over the past 6 months, however there are indications that this maybe turning around. Recent data releases in April and early May for factory orders, business confidence and inventory to shipments ratios are turning stronger. The risk of the US slow down turning into an outright recession exists, but at this stage we would place only a small probability on such a risk. 美国经济正走向软着陆。房产市场放缓已经对国内需求造成了影响，美国GDP增长率从2006年上半年的3.5%下滑到过去六个月的2.5%。除了整体放缓之外，积极的信号则包括美国就业率仍相对景气而消费者支出也在造好。过去6个月商业投资让人失望，不过也有迹象显示情况正在扭转。4月份和5月初公布的数据显示，工厂订单、商业信心和库存货运比等数字都在走强。美国经济的放缓演变成一次大萧条的可能性是存在的，但现阶段我们认为这种风险发生的可能性比较低。 Outside of the US, the economic picture is positive. European activity continues to roll on at a solid pace with European GDP likely to expand by close to 3% this year. Europe is seeing strong demand across both consumer and business activity. Unemployment is declining in Europe and is supporting general confidence. In Japan, economic data remains somewhat sluggish. The economy is likely to expand at around 2%, which is not bad growth for Japan, but with a general improvement in structural conditions in Japan, at this stage of the cycle Japan should be growing at an even stronger rate. 除美国以外，各地经济形势比较正面。欧洲经济继续稳步上升，欧洲GDP增速今年有可能接近3%，当地消费和商业需求都很强劲，失业率下降对整体信心产生了支撑作用。在日本，经济数据仍显得有些落后。今年经济增速可能会达到2%，这对日本来说是一个不错的增长，但考虑到结构性条件的全面改善，处在这一周期阶段的日本经济应该有更为强劲的增长。 Emerging market activity is solid, led by China which has seen GDP expand at over 11% in the first quarter. India, the rest of Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe are also performing well. The challenge in emerging markets is to contain the level of growth in order to prevent overheating. We have seen numerous tightening measures this year in China and India where interest rates were lifted and bank reserve requirements tightened. And rates are higher in Mexico and a number of other economies. We see little risk of a major deterioration in emerging markets growth as generally policy is not restrictive in any of the major economies and with some exceptions like India, there are no real threats from rising inflation. 新兴市场状况稳固，中国起了引领作用，第一季度GDP增长率超过11%。印度、亚洲其他地区、拉丁美洲以及东欧都有不俗表现。新兴市场面临的挑战是适度控制增长的水平以免出现经济过热。我们已经看到今年以来中国和印度纷纷出台紧缩措施，包括加息和提高存款准备金率。墨西哥和其他多个经济体都提高了利率。新兴市场增长不太可能出现大幅度回调，因为基本上主要国家的政策都不是约束性的，而在一些例外的国家如印度，通胀上升并不具备真正的威胁。 The outlook for equity markets is positive. In a soft landing environment that we are seeing in the US, markets have historically done well. This is because in a soft landing, interest rates stay steady or even decline and growth whilst being softer is still generally positive. This is what we are seeing in the US with first quarter profit results showing year on year growth of around 8%, significantly ahead of investor expectations which prior to the earnings season were for 3% growth. Outside of the US, conditions are even stronger due to better growth prospects but with relatively contained interest rate policy. Valuation levels remain reasonable. Whilst we have seen strong equity market performance and many markets are reaching new highs, earnings growth has also been strong around the globe. In China, for example, profits are growing well in excess of 20%. 股市前景比较乐观。在经济出现软着陆的美国，股市行情获得历史性突破。因为在软着陆中，利率仍然稳定甚至在下降而经济增长尽管比较疲软但仍能基本保持向上。这就是我们所看到的美国当前的状况，第一季度盈利比一年前增长了8%，大大超出了投资者在财报公布季度之前预计的3%。美国以外的其他市场状况更好，增长前景更为强劲，不过利率政策相对比较谨慎。估值水平理想。尽管股市表现强势而且很多市场都达到历史高位，全球盈利增长也在齐头并进。例如在中国盈利增长大幅超越20%。 Thus, as the level of earnings has broadly kept up with the level of price movement, valuation levels remain reasonable. Also, interest rates are relatively low, offering little competition to equities. Significant mergers and acquisition activity as well as private equity transactions are providing a significant boost to liquidity and equity market demand. Within equities, our geographical preference is for Asia, Europe and emerging markets where we expect the strongest earnings performance and also an attractive mix of valuations. We are not negative on US or Japan in absolute terms, it is just that we expect them to lag the other regions. 因此，盈利增速大体上能够跟上股价上涨的步伐，估值仍处在理想的水平。同时利率水平相对仍处在低位，对股市不构成竞争。规模庞大的购并活动以及私募股权交易给流动性增长推波助澜并且刺激了股市需求。就股市而言，我们更看好亚洲、欧洲和新兴市场，在这些市场将会出现最为强劲的盈利表现并且估值具有吸引力。我们并不是对美国或者日本市场完全否定，只不过它们将落后于其他地区的表现。 We expect bond yields to range trade over the coming few months. US bonds have discounted the slow down in US activity. For yields to decline much further we would need to expect a recession, which is not our core outlook. The upside for yields is also quite limited in the near term with little pressure on inflation and the US economy still adjusting to the housing down turn. Hence, our base case outlook that bonds will generally perform in line with yield, with little prospect of meaningful capital movement. 我们预计在未来的几个月债券收益率将保持震荡。美国债券已经体现出经济放缓的状况。收益率继续下降需要一轮经济衰退，但这并不是我们的核心预期。近期债券收益率的上升空间也比较有限，因为来自通胀的压力微乎其微而美国经济正在对房产市场的低迷作调整。所以，我们的基本看法是债券表现将基本与收益率一致，不太会出现实质性的波动。 In the foreign exchange markets, the US dollar has continued to struggle as growth has underperformed in the US. However, the US dollar is relatively cheap against European currencies and also against most of its major Latin American trading partners. With the downturn in the US well discounted by investors, we do not expect the dollar to suffer major weakness in the near term. The clear opportunity in foreign exchange, in our view, remains in Asia where Asian currencies are cheap. These economies are doing well with huge positive current account balances and foreign exchange reserve accumulations. The main factor standing in the way of more rapid Asian currency appreciation is that Asian central banks do not like to see significant currency rate adjustments over short periods of time. They will though accept a gradual adjustment as we have seen over the past year in China for the Renminbi, as well as Korea, India and most of the Asean economies. We expect Asian currencies to continue their gradual appreciation over the medium term. 在外汇市场，因为美国经济表现落后，美元仍在坎坷前行。不过美元相对欧元显得便宜，对其拉丁美洲的主要贸易伙伴货币来说也是如此。美国经济放缓已经被投资者充分兑现，因此我们并不认为近期美元还会遭受严重的贬值。在我们看来，外汇市场最为明显的投资机会在亚洲，亚洲货币仍显得便宜。这些国家经济表现良好，经常项目余额和外汇储备都有巨额的积累。阻止亚洲货币更快升值的主要因素是亚洲央行并不乐意看到汇率在短时间内出现大幅度调整，它们更愿意接受渐进的调整，正如中国人民币过去几年经历的那样，还有韩国、印度和大多数东盟国家。我们预计中期内亚洲货币将保持逐渐升值的步伐。 股票策略 美国 回顾 In April, the S&P 500 Index rose 4.3%. However, it was the Dow Jones Industrial Average that stole the headlines as it passed the 13,000 level for the first time in its history. The index was supported by strong earnings from its small number of components. The broader market indices also benefited from the positive trend to corporate earnings. The economic outlook provided further positive momentum towards the end of the month as the Federal Reserve’s ‘beige book’ of economic conditions noted that the US economy had shown modest growth and that consumer prices had been largely stable, conditions that are consistent with US rates remaining on hold. The end of the month saw data released that showed US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was 1.3% in the first quarter of 2007, below the forecast for 1.8%. Despite the weakness of the data, its strong consumer spending component helped to negate part of the disappointment. 4月份标准普尔500指数上升了4.3%。不过道琼斯指数表现更为抢眼——突破了13000点的历史新高，少数成份股的强劲盈利增长推动其表现。更广泛的市场指数也同样受益于公司盈利的上升势头。经济展望正面，直到月底都为市场进一步上涨提供动力。美联储的经济展望褐皮书显示美国经济取得了温和增长，消费物价大体平稳，这些条件都与维持利率不变的决定相吻合。月底公布的数据显示美国GDP在2007年首季增长了1.3% ，较预期的1.8%为低。尽管数据疲软，但消费支出的强劲表现抵消了部分失望情绪。 展望 The US is on track to achieve a soft landing. The slow down in housing has affected domestic demand in the economy, and US GDP has slowed from over 3.5% growth for the first half of 2006 to around 2.5% for the past 6 months. Despite the general slow down the positive signs are that US employment remains relatively solid and consumer expenditure is doing well. Business investment has been disappointing over the past 6 months, however there are indications that this maybe turning around. Factory orders, business confidence and inventory to shipments ratios are turning stronger. The risk of the US slow down turning into an outright recession exists, but at this stage we would place only a small probability on such a risk. 美国正处在软着陆通道上。房产市场放缓已经影响到消费，美国GDP增长率从2006年上半年的3.5%下滑到过去六个月的2.5%。除了整体放缓之外，积极的信号则包括美国就业率仍相对景气而消费者支出也在造好。过去6个月商业投资让人失望，不过也有迹象显示情况正在扭转。工厂订单、商业信心和库存货运比等数字都在走强。美国经济的放缓演变成一次大萧条的可能性是存在的，但现阶段我们认为这种风险发生的可能性比较低。 欧洲(英国除外) 回顾 Over the month, the FTSE Europe ex-UK Index was 4.3% higher. European equity markets were supported during April by further signs of economic strength, positive earnings and, once again, by mergers and acquisitions. Data from the influential German economy was upbeat, as the Ifo index of business sentiment beat forecasts in April and also on upward revisions to German economic growth forecasts. In merger and acquisition news, ABN Amro received a firm offer from UK banking group Barclays and was also being pursued by a consortium led by Royal Bank of Scotland and including Fortis and Santander. Also in merger and acquisition news, sportswear group Puma received a �5.3 billion offer from French group PPR and DaimlerChrysler gained on its confirmation that it had received expressions of interest in its troubled Chrysler division. 4月份金融时报欧洲(英国除外)指数上涨了4.3%。英国股市当月得到经济进一步走强、盈利数字造好以及购并活动的支撑。具有强大影响力的德国经济表现超出预期，Ifo商业景气指数4月份超出预期，德国经济增长预测也被调升。并购消息方面，荷兰银行接受了英国银行集团巴克莱德收购要约，同时也被包括西班牙桑坦德银行(Santander.)和富通银行(Fortis)在内的苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank of Scotland)牵头的财团竞购。另外，运动服装集团彪马(PUMA)接受了法国PPR集团53亿欧元的收购要约，德姆勒克莱斯勒则确认有买家对其旗下备受困扰的克莱斯勒公司表示了兴趣，股价因此上涨。 展望 Surveys of both business and consumer confidence remain quite strong, painting a buoyant growth picture for the Eurozone. And unlike the US, earnings momentum continues to be strong, with analysts still revising their earnings estimates upwards. In light of the strong data, market participants continue to revise their 2007 GDP growth upwards, and consensus is now 2.48%. Despite strong growth, inflation continues to be moderate, suggesting there is little need for aggressive tightening by the European Central Bank this year. Valuations for European equities remain attractive relative to cash and bonds, as well as other equity markets. Given that markets have been bullish, the risk of a short correction has increased, although the outlook remains upbeat. 调查显示商业和消费者信心仍然充足，为欧元区勾勒出强劲的增长前景。而且不像美国，这里的盈利增长势头仍然强劲，分析师仍在不断调高盈利预期。受益于强劲数据，市场参与各方继续调高对GDP增速的预期，现在一致的结果是2.48%。尽管增长势头很强，通胀却保持温和，意味着今年欧洲央行不需要采取激进收缩措施。与现金、债券，乃至其他股市相比，欧洲股市的估值仍然有吸引力。市场一直走牛增加了短期修正的风险，不过前景依然看好。 英国 回顾 UK equity markets were dominated by merger and acquisition news during April, which helped to push the FTSE 100 Index up 2.2% in April. Also underpinning the generally upward trend was positive first quarter results, which drove the market higher despite the prospect of further monetary tightening in the UK. First quarter earnings results provided the catalyst for UK equities to push back towards their six-year highs. The economic background was less supportive of equities as inflation rose beyond forecasts, which prompted financial markets to conclude that an interest rate rise in May is highly likely. The tightening bias of the Bank of England was also evidenced by the minutes from the April policy meeting, which saw two of the nine members vote for a rate increase. 4月份英国股市被购并消息所主导，金融时报100指数当月增长了2.2%。一季度盈利数据同样对整体上升趋势起到了推动作用，在英国可能进一步紧缩货币政策的情况下，市场依然上行。一季度盈利数据为英国股市重新回到六年来的高点提供了催化剂。经济背景对股市的支持比较少，通胀增长超出了预期，导致市场认为5月份有很高的可能会升息。英国央行的紧缩倾向从4月份货币政策会议的纪要中也能得到印证，纪要显示9位成员中的两位投票加息。 展望 We consider that UK equities remain reasonably valued and expect that earnings, as well as mergers and acquisitions will remain the key supports, as they have been for some time. However, we also maintain the view that volatility is likely to remain a feature of financial markets given their sensitivity to adverse economic news, earnings disappointments or signs of escalating political tensions. The impact of the final point has already been seen in the rising oil price, which once again has approached the $70 per barrel level. 我们认为英国股市估值仍然合理，盈利增长和并购活动仍会继续支撑股市，一段时间以来一直如此。不过，波动性仍将会是金融市场的特征之一，市场对负面的经济信息、令人失望的盈利数据以及政治紧张局势升级的迹象都反应敏感，其中最后一点已经反映在飙升的油价上，油价已经再度接近70美元一桶。 日本 回顾 Over the month, the Topix Index fell 0.7%. During the month, Japanese equities were subdued, as disappointing economic news, both domestically and from the US, weighed upon sentiment. In Japan, interest rates were held in April against a background of falling consumer prices and weaker than expected industrial output. The lacklustre GDP data from the US also kept Japanese markets under pressure, although a weaker performance from the yen against the US dollar did help to provide some support the country’s large contingent of exporters. 4月份东证综合股价指数(TOPIX)下跌了0.7%。当月日本股市受到了压制，国内和美国令人失望的经济消息打击了市场情绪。在日本，在消费价格走低和工业生产弱于预期的情况下，利率在4月份仍然保持不变。美国暗淡的GDP数据也使得日本股市承压，尽管日元对美元走软确实给日本大量的出口股提供了支持。 展望 Despite recent upward revisions, Japan is still expected to grow at a more subdued pace than other major economies. Economic indicators are mixed. While there are some signs of an improvement in manufacturing, with industrial production picking up again, domestic consumption remains weak. Uncertainty over deflation has been a key reason for the underperformance in the equity market. And as deflationary risks persist, the Bank of Japan is likely to increase rates only gradually. Japan currently has the lowest interest rates among industrialized nations, and the government has been pressuring the central bank to keep rates low so as to not endanger the economic recovery. Because of the artificially low interest rates, many investors have been borrowing in yen to finance transactions. However, as rates move gradually higher, and as the currency faces upward pressure, this trend may be reversed. 尽管近期出现了向上修正，日本经济增长仍然会保持比其他国家更受压制。经济指标好坏参半。工业生产再次加速，出现了制造业改善的迹象，但国内消费仍然疲软。通缩的不确定性是股市表现落后的一个关键性原因。既然通缩风险依然存在，日本央行就可能只是逐渐升息。日本目前是工业国中利率最低的，政府还一直给央行施压使利率保持低水平以免威胁到经济复苏。因为利率被人为压低，很多投资者一直在借入日元进行交易。然而随着利率逐步升高、日元面临着升值压力，这种套利交易可能会扭转。 亚洲(日本除外) 回顾 Asia ex-Japan markets posted positive returns again in April, aided by generally strong environment for global equities. With levels of equity volatility staying relatively low and a marginally steeper US yield curve, appetite for riskier and cyclical asset classes continued, allowing the MSCI Asia ex-Japan to rise 3.42% (in USD terms). Indonesia, the best performing market during the month, returned 9.2%. This performance was quite closely followed by India, Malaysia and Korea. All these markets rose by more than 6%, mostly driven by stronger fund inflow. Indonesian equities were buoyed by strong commodity prices, as well first quarter GDP estimates which place growth at around 5.7-5.9%. As a laggard market in 2006, the Korean market has rebounded outperforming the region year-to-date. A shift in global liquidity to undervalued assets and foreign fund inflows contributed to the rise. 在全球股市的牛市氛围下，亚洲(日本除外)市场在4月份都取得正回报。股市波动相对稳定，美国债券收益率曲线又变得陡峭，市场对高风险、周期性资产的兴趣有增无减，摩根士丹利资本国际亚洲(日本除外)指数上涨了3.42%(以美元计)。当月表现最佳的印度尼西亚股市上涨了9.2%。以微弱差距紧随其后的是印度、马来西亚和韩国。这些股市都上涨超过6%，主要是受到大量资金流入的推动。印尼股市获得了强劲的商品价格的带动，同时第一季度GDP预测也在5.7%-5.9%。尽管在2006年表现落后，韩国市场今年以来强劲反弹，在亚洲表现领先。全球流动性向低估资产的转移以及大量外资流入推动了此轮上涨。 展望 Markets have been fairly bullish on the back of strong corporate earnings results in the US, and it is possible that they could experience some profit taking in the near term. However, the underlying fundamentals for the region have not changed, and valuations are attractive relative to history, and their peers. Thus we would view a pull back as a buying opportunity. We expect to see earnings growth in the region of 15% for the year, with a dividend yield of around 3%. Corporate balance sheets remain healthy, and macro backdrop remains supportive of growth. Despite strong commodity prices, inflation remains relatively stable in the region, with little risk of aggressive tightening. The only significant exceptions to this are China and India, where inflationary pressure has led to several rate hikes. In these two countries, further monetary tightening is a key risk for equity markets. 受到美国强劲的公司盈利数据支撑，亚洲股市牛气十足，而且近期可能出现部分获利回吐。不过这一区域基本面被低估的事实仍未改变，而且估值相对于历史水平和其他市场而言仍显得有吸引力。因此我们会把回调视为买入机会。预计这一区域今年平均盈利增长速度为15%，股息率大约为3%。公司资产状况仍然健康，宏观基本面也支持继续增长。尽管商品价格大幅上涨，但通胀率仍然相对稳定，不太可能出现激进的紧缩措施。中国和印度则是特例，通胀压力已经导致了几次升息，进一步的货币紧缩措施是这两个国家股市的关键性风险。 中国 回顾 China shares rose in April with H share and MSCI China indices up 4.4% and 3.6% respectively on robust earnings results and strong economic data release. The China market achieved net profit growth of 22.0% in 2006, higher than market expectation, with strong contributions from consumer, financial, basic materials and property sectors. China’s GDP grew 11.1% year-on-year in 1Q07, accelerating from 10.7% in 2H06. The central bank increased the required reserve ratio twice during the month to absorb excess liquidity. The market viewed the increase as mild compared to the potential introduction of harsher austerity measures such as capital gain tax on stock trading and property withholding tax. Increase in food price pushed CPI inflation to grow at the fastest pace in two years at 3.3% in March. Retail sales rose at a faster-than-expected pace at 15.3% in March, up from the 13.7% increase in 2006. 强劲的盈利增长和经济数据促使中国股市在4月份大涨，H股和摩根士丹利资本国际中国指数分别上涨了4.4%和3.6%。中国股市2006年净利润增长率达到22%，超过了预期，消费、金融、基础原材料和房地产板块做出大部分贡献。中国2007年一季度GDP同比增长11.1%，比2006年下半年10.7%的增速有所加快。央行在4月份两次提高存款准备金率以吸收多余流动性。市场认为，与征收股票资本利得税和房地产预提税等可能实施的更为严厉的措施相比，提高存款准备金率仍算是温和的。食品价格的上涨导致CPI在3月份创出了两年以来的最高增速3.3%。3月份零售总额增长了15.3%，比预期得高，也快于2006年13.7%的增速。 展望 The stronger than expected earnings in 2006 and the positive outlook for 2007 will continue to support the market advance. Although the government may still introduce further austerity measures after the golden week holiday (1-7 May), the likelihood of this has been reduced. The two required reserve ratio hikes in April were mild in comparison to the expectations of more direct measures to control stock market speculation. Recent talks of substantial expansion of the QDII scheme over the coming months to allow domestic funds to flow out of China in order to balance the strong inflows will continue to support the Chinese shares trading in Hong Kong which are trading at steep discounts to A-shares. Continuing Renminbi appreciation, expansion of the QDII scheme, corporate M & A and implementation of management incentive plans are positive factors that would lead the market higher over the longer term. 2006年超出预期的盈利增长以及2007年乐观的前景将继续支持股市上行。政府有可能在黄金周后出台进一步紧缩措施，不过这种可能性在降低。4月份两次提升准备金率相对于预期中的更直接控制市场投机的措施来说，还显得温和。QDII体系的进一步扩大，允许内地资金流出以平衡大量的境外资金流入，会继续支持香港市场中国概念股表现，目前这些股票价格与A股相比有相当大的折让。长期来看，人民币持续升值、QDII体系扩大、公司并购活动以及管理层激励计划的实施，都将是引领股市的积极因素。 中国香港 回顾 The Hang Seng Index (HSI) was locked in a tight range of between 19,810 and 20,790 in April. Despite a sharp correction in March, ample liquidity and positive corporate results helped the market to recover quickly, although the previous all-time high of 20,821 became a resistance level. Buying interest was keen with the market daily turnover averaged at HK$54.9 billion in April, a level similar to that in 1Q07. The Finance sector was the best performing sector, helped by strong performances of individual stocks. The Property and Utilities sectors followed while Commercial/Industrial lagged. 恒生指数4月份被锁定在19,810到20,790的狭窄区间内。尽管3月份出现了剧烈修正，充裕的流动性和乐观的公司盈利帮助市场快速收复失地，不过此前的历史高点20,821成为一个阻力位。买入热情高涨，市场4月份的日均交易额达到549亿港元，与2007年一季度的水平接近。 金融板块表现最好，个股表现强劲。房地产和公用事业板块紧随其后，商业/工业板块落后市场。 展望 We expect market volatility. In the short term, the market may stay range bound. We continue to prefer property developers, retailers and hoteliers. We also like selective quality small/mid cap banks and industrials. Risks for the market remain on the external front such as economic slowdown in the US and further tightening measures in China, although ample liquidity, positive domestic fundamentals and reasonable valuation should limit market downside. Yield gap analysis suggests there can be another 20% upside for the market if earnings yield is to close the gap with the 10-year bond yield. However, as the yield gap narrows, the market may become more volatile and sensitive to changes in sentiment. 我们预计市场将出现波动。短期内市场会窄幅震荡。我们继续看好房产开发商、零售股和酒店股，以及少数优质中小盘银行和工业股。风险主要来自外部，比如美国经济增长放缓、国内进一步紧缩措施等，不过充裕的流动性、乐观的当地基本面以及合理的估值水平将会限制市场下跌的空间。收益率差距分析表明要使股市收益率接近10年期债券收益率，市场还需上涨20%。不过，一旦收益率差距收窄，市场可能更为波动并且对投资信心的变化更为敏感。 债券和货币 债券回顾 Treasury prices in the US were flat during April as mixed data reinforced the existing expectation that US interest rates are likely to be on hold in the short-term. In contrast, European economic strength, particularly in Germany, added to the upward pressure on interest rates and accordingly bond prices fell back, with the yield on the ten-year German bond rising to 4.15% over the month. 4月份美国国债价格走平，好坏参半的数据支持了原有的预期，即美国利率将在短期内保持不变。不同的是，欧洲，尤其是德国的经济增长势头进一步提升了加息压力，从而使得债券价格回落，德国10年期债券收益率在4月份升至4.15%。 展望 We expect bond yields to range trade over the coming few months. US bonds have discounted the slow down in US activity. For yields to decline much further we would need to expect a recession which is not our core outlook. The upside for yields is also quite limited in the near term with little pressure on inflation and the US economy still adjusting to the housing down turn. Hence our base case outlook that bonds will generally perform in line with yield, with little prospect of meaningful capital movement. 我们预计在未来的几个月债券收益率将窄幅震荡。美国债券价格已经反映了经济放缓的状况。收益率继续下降需要一轮经济衰退，但这并不是我们的核心预期。近期债券收益率的上升空间也比较有限，因为来自通胀的压力微乎其微而美国经济正在对房产市场的低迷作调整。所以，我们的基本看法是债券表现将基本与收益率一致，不太会出现实质性的波动。 货币回顾 The dollar came under sustained pressure in April, with sterling hitting its highest level against the US currency for 26 years and once again trading above the $2 level. Sterling’s strength was based on forecasts for rising interest rates and this was also the catalyst for the Euro to trade at a two-year high against the dollar. The bank of Japan’s decision to hold rates in April saw the yen weaken against the dollar and over the month sterling was largely unchanged against the Euro. 4月份美元一直承受着压力，英镑对美元创出26年的新高，再度突破了2美元的水平。英镑走强是基于升息的预期，这也是导致欧元对美元达到两年来高点的催化剂。4月份日本央行决定维持利率水平不变，使得日元对美元走软。当月英镑对欧元大体上没有变化。 展望 The US dollar is relatively cheap against European currencies and also against most of its major Latin American trading partners and with the downturn in the US well discounted by investors we do not expect that the dollar will suffer major further weakness in the near term. The clear opportunity in FX in our view, remains in Asia where Asian currencies are cheap, the economies are doing well with huge positive current account balances and FX reserve accumulations. These currencies are expected to appreciate gradually over the medium term. 美元相对欧元显得便宜，对其拉丁美洲的主要贸易伙伴货币来说也是如此。美国经济放缓已经被投资者充分兑现，因此我们并不认为近期美元还会遭受严重的贬值。在我们看来，外汇市场最为明显的投资机会在亚洲，亚洲货币仍显得便宜。这些国家经济表现良好，经常项目余额和外汇储备都有巨额的积累。我们预计中期内亚洲货币将保持逐渐升值的步伐。 所有回报都以当地货币计算 本文观点引自汇丰投资管理(香港) 新浪声明：本版文章内容纯属作者个人观点，仅供投资者参考，并不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。
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