2006年10月16日全球金融市场周报 新兴市场

　　Global Emerging Markets 环球新兴市场

　　Emerging markets had a good week, boosted by rising risk appetite against a backdrop of buoyant global growth and a peak in US interest rates. In Latin America, the Brazilian BOVESPA rose 4.1% following the first round of the country's presidential elections, in which incumbent president Lula da Silva failed to achieve the majority needed to defeat the opposition candidate, Geraldo Alckman, after corruption allegations cost him votes. The result was generally welcomed by investors who hope it will force Lula to moderate his spending plans in order to ensure victory in the 29 October run off. Also in Brazil, industrial output slowed down in August, providing further evidence that the strong Brazilian currency is beginning to hurt the economy. Elsewhere in the region, Mexico's IPC rose 1.9%, while Argentina's MERVAL was 0.5% higher as Standard & Poor's raised the country's credit rating to B+, its highest level in more than five years and a further signal that the Argentine economy is on the road to recovery following 2001's debt default.

　　In central Europe, Hungary's BUX stabilised after the recent political turmoil, rising 1.4% over the week. Poland's WIG was up 2.1%, although the Czech PX 50 was 0.6% lower. Russia's RTS managed a 0.3% rise as a drop in September's inflation rate to its slowest level in a year, while in Turkey the ISE National 100 fell by a modest 0.5%.

　　冒险意欲回升，环球增长蓬勃，加上美国息口见顶，都刺激新兴市场造好。拉丁美洲方面，巴西股市在第一轮总统大选后上升4.1%，现任总统卢拉因贪污指控而未能取得打败反对党对手所需的大多数票。结果普遍获投资者欢迎，因卢拉或会因此而削减开支计划，以确保10月29日能够胜出。巴西8月份工业产出放缓，进一步证明货币汇价强劲已开始影响经济。

　　至于其它拉丁美洲市场方面，

墨西哥股市升1.9%，阿根廷股市升0.5%。标准普尔将阿根廷信用评级调高至B+，是五年多以来最高，更暗示在2001年无力偿债阿根廷，经济现正步向复苏。中欧方面，匈牙利股市在近期政治风波后已见回稳，上周升1.4%。波兰升2.1%。捷克股市则跌0.6%。俄罗斯9月份通胀率降至一年新低，股市升0.3%。

土耳其股市则微跌0.5%。

    新浪声明：本版文章内容纯属作者个人观点，仅供投资者参考，并不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。