2006年10月16日全球金融市场周报 欧洲

　　Europe 欧洲

　　European bourses continued to make headway last week after a buoyant M&A market outweighed concerns over further interest rate rises in Europe. The FTSE Euro1st Index, which touched five year highs over the week, finished up 1.1%. Investors speculated furiously over potential tie-ups on both sides of the Channel. The big news in the UK, where the FTSE 100 rose 0.7%, was Irish budget airlines Ryanair's unexpected EUR 1.48 billion hostile bid for Irish carrier Air Lingus, which was subsequently rejected. Corus was also in the spotlight with much speculation over whether the steelmaker will merge with an emerging markets steel producer - Tata Steel and Turkey's Erdemir were both said to be in the picture.

　　Although no firm offer was made, bid speculation swirled around British Airways which could be a potential target for the Middle East, while many of the UK's banking stocks, including Barclays and Lloyds TSB, were in focus amid speculation that Citigroup was looking for a tie-up with a European bank. Across the Channel, bid speculation continued, helping all bourses on the Continent achieve gains over the week. Among them, Germany's DAX outperformed with a rise of 1.4%, Switzerland's SPI wasn't far behind with a gain of 1.1%, while the French CAC 40 finished a little behind, but still up 0.6%.

　　Bid speculation intensified in the utilities sector, with investors gossiping that Energias de Portugal could merge with Gas Natural - an outcome that Energias de Portugal subsequently denied. Meanwhile, building companies Acciona and ACS continued to hog the limelight as investors waited expectantly for the companies to announce respective tie-ups with Endesa and Iberdola. Truck companies MAN and Scania also remained in the spotlight, this time due to speculation that Volkswagen and Scania could be gearing up to making a play for MAN together. In previous weeks, MAN has made a play for both Scania and Volkswagen as potential merging partners.

　　Away from the corporate sector, economic data releases strengthened beliefs that interest rates were on an upward trend in the UK and Eurozone. The European Central Bank raised rates in the Eurozone to 3.25% and hinted that, although rates would probably not rise in November, a more likely move would be in December. In contrast, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee left rates unchanged in their latest monthly meeting, but comments issued with the decision hinted that rates would rise in their November meeting. Strong growth in manufacturing and services activity, stable consumer confidence and a 1% rise in house prices in the UK strengthened beliefs of a rise in UK borrowing costs next month, while steady manufacturing growth in the Eurozone and a 3.6% rise in producer price inflation (excluding energy costs) reinforced beliefs that rates will rise at least once more in the Eurozone.

　　上周欧洲股市继续造好，并购消息频传，掩盖了区内利率进一步上调的隐忧。富时欧洲指数一度上试五年高位，收市升1.1%。有关企业结盟的揣测，主导上周市场走势。英国富时100指数升0.7%，当地最重要的消息是爱尔兰廉价航空公司Ryanair突然出价14.8亿欧元向爱尔兰航空公司Air Lingus提出敌意收购，建议其后被驳回。Corus亦备受追捧，市场盛传这间钢铁制造商会和新兴市场钢铁生产商Tata Steel和

　　市场传闻花旗集团(Citigroup)打算与一间欧洲银行结盟，Barclays及Lloyds TSB等英国银行股都备受瞩目。欧洲大陆收购传闻亦此起彼落，刺激当地股市上扬。其中德国DAX指数表现最佳，升1.4%；瑞士SPI指数亦不遑多让，升1.1%；法国CAC 40指数则稍为落后，但仍升0.6%。公用事业范畴收购传闻不绝，投资者猜测Energias de Portugal会和Gas Natural合并，但其后已被Energias de Portugal否认。与此同时，建筑公司Acciona及ACS继续受到市场注目，投资者期待该公司宣布分别与Endesa和Iberdola结盟。货车公司MAN及Scania续受注目，这次是由于福士汽车(Volkswagen)可能与Scania连手，拉拢MAN合并。MAN曾于之前数周向Scania和福士提出合并建议。

　　企业范畴以外，新发表经济数据令市场更相信英国和欧元区息口正走势向上。欧洲央行将利率调高至3.25厘，暗示11月虽然甚可能不会加息，但12月应会调高利率。相反，英伦银行货币政策委员会则维持利率不变，但所发表的评论却暗示11月会加息。英国制造业和服务业活动增长蓬勃，消费信心稳定，房屋价格又上升1%，都令市场更加相信英国会在下月加息，而欧元区制造业增长平稳，生产物价通胀(不计