2006年10月16日全球金融市场周报 美国

　　United States 美国

　　The Dow Jones touched new record highs on its way to a 1.5% increase for the week. The NASDAQ also made good gains, rising 1.8%. Stocks were propelled higher by a renewed drop in oil prices, which fell to 14-month lows at one stage after data showed that US oil inventories were rising (although speculation that OPEC may cut production saw oil prices begin to rise again at the end of the week). Lower oil prices raised hopes that falling energy costs would boost consumer spending, constrain inflationary pressures and make it more likely that the economy will achieve a soft landing - all of which are good news for the short-term corporate earnings outlook.

　　Economic data provided further evidence that the economy is slowing, reinforcing expectations that US interest rates have peaked and may actually begin to fall in the New Year. The ISM's index of manufacturing activity, although still showing manufacturing growth, fell to its lowest level since May 2005. Also, the latest non-farms payrolls report was the weakest since last year's hurricanes, as US companies cut back their hiring.

　　In corporate news, Wal-Mart was hit by lower than expected September sales figures, while GM ended its discussions with Renault and Nissan about a possible tie up. The outlook for Wall Street is dependent on the economy achieving a soft landing and avoiding recession. If a soft landing is achieved, then rising expectations of a rate cut in the first half of 2007 and robust corporate earnings should be supportive for equities, with blue chips likely to continue to outperform.

　　上周道琼斯指数屡创新高，收市升1.5%。纳斯达克指数更升1.8%。数据显示美国石油库存增加，油价一度跌至14个月低位，刺激股市上扬(虽则有传闻指石油输出国组织可能减产，推动上周尾段油价开始回升)。油价下跌令市场憧憬

能源开支减少可刺激消费开支、控制通胀压力及提高经济软着陆可能性，有利于短期企业盈利前景。

　　最新数据进一步证明经济正在放缓，加强美国息口已见顶的预期，甚至会在明年初开始减息。尽管供应管理学会制造业活动指数仍然显示制造业录得增长，但增长率却降至2005年5月以来最低水平。美国企业削减人手，非农业支薪人数报告亦是去年风季以来最疲弱者。

　　企业消息方面，沃尔玛(Wal-Mart)9月份销售数据未达预期，

通用汽车(GM)已终止与雷诺和日产结盟的商讨。美股后市将视乎美国经济能否达致软着陆和避过衰退。倘若经济能够达致软着陆，明年上半年减息预期上升和企业盈利丰厚应有利于股市，蓝筹股应会继续表现出色。

    新浪声明：本版文章内容纯属作者个人观点，仅供投资者参考，并不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。