2006年10月16日全球金融市场周报 日本

　　Japan 日本

　　TOPIX climbed 1.5% after some positive news on the economy saw investors shrug off concerns over news that North Korea would be testing its nuclear weapons. The release of the latest quarterly Tankan survey from the Bank of Japan saw confidence among manufacturers reach a two-year high, signalling that the economy is still improving. A softening in wage growth by 0.5% in August heightened optimism over earnings in the corporate sector amid speculation that companies are reinvesting their profits instead of increasing wages, although it did raise concerns that consumer spending could be hampered by workers' lower income. At the stock level, both exporters and domestically sensitive stocks made progress over the week. Securities stocks in particular were in the spotlight in anticipation that demand from retail Japanese and overseas investors will pick up. Technology stocks also held up well, although Sony fell to a ten-month low amid news of product launch delays and faulty batteries in the company's laptops.

　　Recent earnings guidance has generally exceeded expectations. Toyota revised first half parent operating profit by 46% to JPY540bn (USD4.7bn), a rise of 81% YoY. Sumco, one of the world's leading silicon wafer manufacturers, reported 1H operating profit that rose 76% YoY and was about 10% ahead of expectations. Murata, one of the worlds leading electronic components manufacturers revised earnings to achieve 42% growth over the year earlier. One company that disappointed was Nikko Securities, that revised down recurring profit to about 30% below that of last year. In Nikko's case, equity market volumes and sales of investment products have been sluggish. The coming earnings season is likely to have a positive bias and dispel the worst case fears that the economic uncertainty is negatively impacting earnings. The data from the most recent Tankan shows that output prices have stopped declining for the first time in 15 years. This evidences reviving pricing power, which enables a pass through to output prices and as long as volumes continue to grow, results in steady earnings growth.

　　Topix now trades on a PER multiple of 17.1x March 2008 earnings per share of JPY95, +11% YoY. and a PBR of 2.0x. This multiple is about mid-way between the April 2006 peak PER of 18.7x and the June bottom of 15.2x. Earnings guidance is suggesting that the coming earnings season will likely exceed expectations, particularly from the index heavy-weight sectors such as autos and electronics. As long as expectations towards the global backdrop continue to discount a soft-landing for the US economy, the market can rise in line with annual EPS growth.

　　经济消息利好，令投资者摆脱北韩核试消息的困扰，东京第一市场指数升1.5%。最新季度短观调查结果反映制造商信心升上两年高位，暗示经济仍在好转。8月份工资增长0.5%，令市场看好企业盈利。亦有传闻指出，企业正将溢利用作再投资而并非加薪，令人忧虑受薪阶级收入减少会压抑消费开支。股份层面上，出口股和内部经济敏感股都录得进账。预计日本和海外散户需求回升，

证券股尤其受到追捧。

　　科技股亦承接不俗，但新力(Sony)却因产品推出受阻及其手提电脑电池出现问题而跌至10个月低位。近期盈利指引普遍超越预期。

丰田汽车(Toyota)将母公司上半年经营溢利调高近半，较去年同期更增加81%。全球领先硅片制造商Sumco宣布上半年经营溢利较去年同期上升76%，比10%预期高出一成。全球领先电子组件制造商之一Murata修订盈利预测至按年增长42%。日兴证券(Nikko Securities)的业绩则未如理想，经常性溢利较去年减少约三成，主要受制于股市交投及投资产品销售呆滞。

　　即将来临的业绩期应会倾向利好，消除有关经济形势不明朗会对盈利造成负面冲击的忧虑。最新短观调查数据显示产出价格15年来首次停止下跌。订价能力出现回升迹象，企业因而能够将成本转嫁顾客，可令盈利稳步增长。按2008年3月每股盈利为95日圆计算，东京第一市场指数目前的市盈率为17.1倍，股价/账面值比率则为2倍。这个市盈率水平正好介乎2006年4月高位18.7倍和6月低位15.2倍之间。盈利指引暗示，下届业绩期的表现应会超越预期，汽车和电子等指数重磅股尤甚。只要环球形势预测继续反映美国经济软着陆的预期，大市应可跟随每股盈利年度增长上扬。

    新浪声明：本版文章内容纯属作者个人观点，仅供投资者参考，并不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。