2017年06月26日 13:31 新浪财经 微博
海通证券股份有限公司 海通证券研究所


  External environment: Fedraised interest rates twice. In both June and March, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates. However, as the recovery of the U.S. economy slowed down and the Fed had relatively sufficient communication with the market before the interest rate hike.After the Fed'sratehike, the U.S. dollar index didn't rise much and devaluation pressure on the RMB was eased to some extent. Liquidity: MPA assessments is on the way; PBOC's attitude changed. There are MPA assessments both at the end of June and March. In March, PBOC didn't inject a large amount of capital throughopen market operations. The financial deleverage and the assessment resulted in a significant impact on the liquidity. Since June, PBOC's intention to stabilizeliquidityhas been clear. With a lot of capital placed throughopen market operations recently, the liquidityis relatively stable. Policy: the keynote of deleverage remained unchanged, but the pace slowed down. Financial deleverage has been a main direction in the macropolicy control since the beginning of the year. However, there are signs that the regulation progress has been slowing down since June. First, after the Fed's rate hikein June, PBOC didn't raise relevant interest rates.Second, according to some media, CBRChas relaxed the submission deadline of banks' self-check reports.In addition,PBOCfrequentlyinjected liquidity throughopen market operations. All of these moves reflect the regulators’intention to stabilize the transition of financial deleverage. Fundamentals: the economy fell from its peak; downward pressure has gradually appeared.The fundamentals started to fall from their peaks in March. Compared to March, the economy continued to fall in June. In the first ten days of June, the real estate sales in 64 cities fell by 22% YoY. In the first four days of the second ten days, the decline widenedto 36%. In the first 20 days of June, the coal consumption for power generation grew by 14.9%, which slowed down compared to that in the corresponding period in March. The continued downturn in real estate sales and the declines in indexes such as PMI and investment growth all indicate that the economy is already in a slow downturn. The support of the fundamentals to the bond market hasgradually appeared.

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