如今,在货币市场自由浮动的不单单只是汇率,还有许多错误的想法。种种关于什么是对亚洲经济最适宜,或者实际应当采取的汇率政策的错误观点也到处传播。随着美国贸易赤字的增长,围绕是否应该让亚洲主要货币升值,或者应当采取更灵活的汇率制度的辩论也越来越激烈。
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Exchange
rates are not the only things that are floating freely in currency markets
these days. Also bobbing around are many erroneous beliefs about the most
desirable - and indeed the actual - currency policies for Asia's
economies. As the US trade deficit grows, debate is hotting up on whether
the main Asian currencies should be made to appreciate or to adopt more
flexible exchange rates.
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然而事实是,世上没有“灵丹妙药”。每个国家必须审视其经济发展水平和融入国际金融市场的程度,同时也必须把外汇市场的状况和资本市场的开放程度一起通盘考虑。
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The truth is
that there is no "one size fits all" solution. Each country has
to assess its level of economic development and degree of integrationsintos
international financial markets. It must also consider the status of its
foreign exchange market together with the openness of its capital markets.
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就韩国的情况来说,汇率政策随着经济发展特别是资本市场的自由化而演进。在1980年代,政府根据一揽子货币确定汇率,随后又转向市场平均汇率。在经历了1997年的金融危机后,方才允许货币自由浮动。长期高估韩元的僵硬汇率,被认为是造成那次危机的主要原因之一。这个教训汉城是不会轻易忘记的。
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In the case
of South Korea, currency policy has evolved in line with its economic
development and, in particular, with capital market liberalisation. During
the 1980s, the government set the rate with reference to a basket of
currencies, and later moved to a market-average system. After the 1997
financial crisis, the currency was allowed to float freely. Rigid exchange
rates, which had long overvalued the won, were identified as one of the
main reasons for the crisis. It was a lesson that Seoul will not soon
forget.
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自从采取了自由浮动汇率制度后,韩国政府便放弃了对外汇市场的干预。政府没有对韩元设定浮动区间,而是尊重市场的供需变化。
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Since
adopting the free-floating exchange rate, South Korea's government has
given up intervening in the foreign exchange market. It has no target
range for the won and has been respecting the market's supply-and- demand
dynamics.
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但韩国外汇市场却并不总是令人如愿地正常运转。这个日交易额达20亿至30亿美元的市场,经常发生“从众”现象(herd
behaviour)。当汇市大幅波动时,市场容易被投机交易所操纵,这些交易很少考虑经济的基本因素。如果这类交易引发汇率的急剧变化,政府则会介入市场,以减少震荡。
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However, the
South Korean foreign exchange market does not always function as well as
it should. The market, which has a daily trading volume of bn-bn,
often invites herd behaviour. When big currencies fluctuate, it is
vulnerable to speculative transactions that take little account of
economic fundamentals. When such transactions bring steep movement in
exchange rates, the government steps in to perform a smoothing operation.
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最近,一些人在看到韩元大幅下滑后即怀疑,是否韩国政府在干预市场,维持韩元兑美元和日元的较低汇率。事实上,此次韩元的走弱是由投机者对美元的需求而引发的,他们需要大量美元进行补仓。
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Recently,
following a sharp fall in the won, some have voiced suspicions that the
government has been intervening to keep the won weak against the dollar or
the yen. In fact, the decline was triggered by demand for the dollar from
speculators trying to cover large short positions in that currency.
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从下面的一组数据中就能看出,韩国不曾奉行干预政策。今年,在亚洲的各主要货币中,韩元兑日元的波动是最高的,从7月底至10月底,韩元升值9%。韩元兑美元自去年初开始,上升了11%,是除日元之外的所有主要亚洲货币中升值最高的。考虑到2002年1月至2003年9月之间的通胀因素,韩元对美元实际升值13.8%,而日元对美元升值的幅度为12.7%。
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A look at the
figures makes clear that Seoul has not been pursuing an interventionist
policy. Among Asia's main currencies, the won has shown the highest
volatility against the yen this year, appreciating 9 per cent between the
end of July and the end of October. Since the beginning of last year, it
has risen 11 per cent against the dollar, the highest appreciation of all
the main Asian currencies bar the yen. Takingsintosaccount inflation from
January 2002 to September 2003, the won has appreciated by 13.8 per cent
in real terms, compared with 12.7 per cent for the yen.
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今年1月至8月,美国的全部贸易赤字中,韩国所占比重为2.2%,而中国占到22.1%,日本占12.4%。8月份韩国对美国的贸易顺差急剧下降。根据美国方面的数据,韩国的贸易顺差比上年下降5.3%。这些数据是不能支持韩国操纵汇率的观点的。
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South Korea
accounts for only 2.2 per cent of America's total trade deficit from
January to August this year. That compares with 22.1 per cent for China
and 12.4 per cent for Japan. As of August, South Korea's trade surplus
with the US has fallen sharply, recording a 5.3 per cent year-on-year
decline according to US data. These figures hardly support the assertion
that South Korea manipulates its exchange rates.
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当前,全球贸易的不平衡反映了一个结构性、体制上的问题。它并不单是因为汇率未能与全球经济的发展保持同步。单靠调整汇率是不能解决问题的。
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The present
global trade imbalance reflects a structural, system-wide problem. It is
not just a consequence of exchange rates that have failed to keep pace
with global economic development. Exchange rate adjustment alone will not
yield a solution.
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自2002年初以来,美国的贸易赤字和低利率便使美元受压。美元下滑也伴随着购买公司证券和直接投资的减少。如果美元的价值不能保持稳定,亚洲国家将倾向于选择欧元补充其外汇储备。这将使美元在全世界的优先地位和美国作为全球金融中心的角色,一并受到威胁。不仅如此,如果亚洲经济因美元疲软而增长放慢的话,美国的服务业将受严重打击,因为它们的主要客户是在亚洲各国。
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America's
trade deficit and low interest rates have pressed down the dollar since
early 2002. The decline is also associated with a drop in purchases of
corporate securities and direct investment. Should the dollar's value
continue to be unstable, Asian countries will tilt towards the euro in
replenishing their foreign exchange reserves. The dollar's global
pre-eminence would be threatened, as would America's status as the world's
financial centre. Furthermore, if Asian economies slow because of a weak
dollar, US service industries will be hit hard, since Asian economies are
their main customers.
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通过地区合作、贸易自由化和资本流动,世界主要国家已经在经济全球化方面走上了不归路。“以邻为壑”的政策是没有出路的。相反,各主要经济体之间需要通过加强政策协调,促进贸易和资本流动。这才是一条大家皆赢之路。
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The world's
big economies have already - through regional co-operation and
liberalisation of trade and capital flows - crossed the point of no return
in globalisation. "Beggar thy neighbour" policies will lead us
nowhere. Instead, we need to strengthen policy co-ordination among the
main economies and to increase trade and capital movement. That way the
whole world can win. The writer is South Korea's deputy finance minister
for international affairs
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(作者为韩国财政部负责国际事务的副部长。)
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译者/方志燕
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