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让中国睡吧，因为她一旦醒来，就将震撼世界。
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Let China sleep, for when she
wakes, she will shake the world.
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不久前，世界还是轻轻松松，不在意拿破仑的上述警告。但现在，中国正在震撼世界。美国是第一个大陆型资本主义经济体。欧盟(EU)正努力成为第二个。中国则有可能令两者相形见绌。中国已是全球经济中庞大且引发争议的经济体，它的影响力肯定会进一步增强。对于中国这种日益增长的影响，担忧是不可避免的。但是，这种担忧理由何在呢？应当采取怎样的最好反应呢？
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Until recently, the world
happily ignored Napoleon's warning. But China is now shaking the world.
The US was the first continental, capitalist, economy. The European Union
is trying to become a second. Potentially, China dwarfs them both.
Already, it is a big, and controversial, presence in the global economy.
Its impact is certain to increase still further. Fear is an inevitable
response to this growing upheaval. But how far is it justified? And what
is the best response?
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中国的贸易表现的确令人惊异。1980年至2002年间，中国占世界出口的比重从1.2%增至5.2%，占全球进口的份额从1.1%增至4.2%。从1993年至2002年，中国的商品出口年均增长17.3%。如果目前的趋势持续下去（虽然不太可能），中国的出口大约在2010年时将超过美国。在截至2003年5月的12个月中，中国的出口总额达到3660亿美元，居全球第4位，仅次于美国、德国和日本。同期中国的进口总额为3230亿美元，居全球第6位，而且将很快超过日本、英国和法国。
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China's trade performance has,
indeed, been astonishing. Between 1980 and 2002, China's share in global
exports and imports rose from 1.2 per cent and 1.1 per cent, to 5.2 per
cent and 4.2 per cent, respectively. From 1993 to 2002, the volume of
China's exports of goods rose at an annual rate of 17.3 per cent. If
current trends were sustained (which is unlikely), China's exports would
surpass those of the US by about 2010. Over the 12 months to May 2003,
Chinese exports of bn were the world's fourth largest, after those of
the US, Germany and Japan. Its imports, at bn, were the sixth largest,
but will soon be bigger than those of Japan, the UK and France.
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上述的增长态势令人想起日本。但是，中国的扩张至少在两方面不同于日本。其一，中国经济的开放程度大大高于日本：以市场价格计算，2001年中国的贸易额占国内生产总值(GDP)的比例为44%，而日本仅为18%。其二，中国的出口对外国直接投资的依赖程度大大高于日本：联合国发布的《世界投资报告》(World
Investment Report)显示，2000年中国出口商品中有一半来自外国在华的附属公司。中国在全球经济中的力量将超过日本，这不仅因为中国具有比日本更大的潜力，还因为中国融入全球经济的程度将比日本更深。
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This
growth recalls that of Japan. But China's expansion is different, in at
least two respects. First, China's economy is far more open: its ratio of
trade to gross domestic product, at market prices, was 44 per cent in
2001, while Japan's was only 18 per cent. Second, China's exports are far
more dependent on inward direct investment: in 2000, according to the
United Nations' World Investment Report, half China's exports came
from foreign affiliates. China will be a bigger force in the world economy
than Japan, not only because its potential is far larger but also because
it will be far more deeply integrated within it.
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要评估中国贸易的影响，必须从中国的比较优势和贸易政策入手。中国的比较优势在于它几乎拥有无限的廉价劳动力。中国贸易政策已显著自由化。1992年，中国对进口制成品平均征收46.5%的法定关税。加入世界贸易组织(WTO)后，该税率将下降至6.9%。对于初级产品，关税税率将从22.3%下调至3.6%。从1996年至2001年，中国还把进口商品实行非关税壁垒的比例从32.5%降至21.6%*。这一贸易自由化趋势进一步提高了中国出口商品的竞争力，因为对进口商品征税也意味着对出口商品征税。
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To
assess the impact of China's trade, one must start with its comparative
advantage and trade policies. The former rests on almost limitless
supplies of cheap labour. The latter have become remarkably liberal. In
1992, average statutory tariffs on manufactures were 46.5 per cent. After
accession to the World Trade Organisation, this will be down to 6.9 per
cent. For primary products, the decline is from 22.3 to 3.6 per cent.
China also reduced the coverage of non-tariff barriers from 32.5 per cent
of imports to 21.6 per cent between 1996 and 2001.* This liberalisation
further increases the competitiveness of China's exports, because a tax on
imports is also a tax on exports.
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从1979年至2001年，中国的贸易条件即出口商品价格与进口商品价格之比下降了30%**。随着中国的经济增长引起出口商品相对价格下降，导致与中国在第三方市场上竞争的国家利润减少和市场份额下降。但是，中国出口商品的净进口国，以及对华净出口国却从中受益。总体而言，向中国出口初级产品、高端产品和服务的国家得到了好处，而其它劳动力富足的国家则遭受损失。
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Between 1979 and 2001, China's
terms of trade - the ratio of the prices of its exports to those of its
imports - fell by 30 per cent.** As China's growth drives down the
relative price of her exports, countries that compete in third markets
suffer declining profitability and market shares. But net importers of
China's exports and net exporters of her imports benefit. In general,
commodity exporters and exporters of sophisticated goods and services
gain, while other labour-abundant countries lose.
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高盛(Goldman
Sachs)发布了一份关于中国对拉美国家经济影响的分析报告，题为《中国带给拉美国家的酸甜苦辣》(The
Sweet and Sour Effects of China in Latin America)（2003年11月7日）。报告指出，面对中国的冲击，墨西哥受损，而阿根廷、巴西和智利则得益，后三国都是初级产品出口大国。以去年为例，中国在对美制成品供应上超过墨西哥。尽管中国的工资水平已大幅提高，但在2002年仍只有墨西哥的四分之一左右。墨西哥的生产力水平虽然在提高，但其速度没有快到足以抵消中国劳动力的成本优势。随着墨西哥开始丧失市场分额，它还面临失去外国直接投资(FDI)的风险。这一点部分解释了为什么流入墨西哥的外国直接投资快速减少。2001年，墨西哥的外国直接投资为250亿美元(无可否认，这是很高的记录)，到2002年，降到了140亿美元。高盛认为，中国对墨西哥国际收支的影响相当于墨西哥国内生产总值(GDP)的4%，今后，这一影响可能还会加大。
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An
analysis of the impact on Latin America by Goldman Sachs ("The Sweet
and Sour Effects of China in Latin America", November 7 2003), notes
that Mexico is a loser, while Argentina, Brazil and Chile - all big
commodity exporters - are gainers. Last year, for example, China overtook
Mexico as a supplier of manufactures to the US market. China's wages were
still about a quarter of Mexico's in 2002, even though they have been
soaring. Mexico's productivity is not rising fast enough to offset this
Chinese advantage. As Mexico loses market share, it also risks losing
inward foreign direct investment. This explains, in part, why inward FDI
fell from bn in 2001 (admittedly, a very high level) to bn in 2002.
In all, argues Goldman Sachs, the impact of China on Mexico's balance of
payments amounts to 4 per cent of gross domestic product, which could
increase further.
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对阿根廷、巴西和智利而言，不利于墨西哥的事情却对它们有利，这三个国家的对华贸易顺差正不断上升。高盛估计，中国对阿根廷和巴西两国国际收支的积极影响，将占两国2003年GDP总量的0.75%。其它初级产品出口国同样得益，其中有澳大利亚、新西兰和一些石油出口国，它们现已拥有一个在未来数十年中胃口惊人的中国市场。
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What has been bad for Mexico
has been good for Argentina, Brazil and Chile, which have enjoyed rising
trade surpluses with China. Goldman Sachs estimates the positive impact on
Argentina and Brazil at 0.75 per cent of their combined 2003 GDPs. Gains
come to other commodity exporters, as well. Among them are Australia and
New Zealand and the oil exporters, which now possess a voracious market in
the decades ahead.
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有些似乎难以抵御中国直接竞争的国家，也有可能从中国的发展中获益。原因在于中国产业的纵向整合。1998年，在中国出口产品的价值中，直接和间接进口产品占了近四分之一。这种生产特征与其邻国尤其相关，这并不难以理解。例如，世界银行的另一份研究报告指出，1985至2001年间，东亚其他新兴市场经济体对华出口已从59亿美元上升到835亿美元。2001年，东亚国家和地区对中国的出口商品中，有15%都是办公设备、电信设备和电子及微电路零部件，所有这些部件都是为了在中国组装为成品后再出口***。
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Gains are even available to
countries that would seem vulnerable to direct Chinese competition. The
reason is the vertical integration of Chinese production. In 1998, just
under a quarter of the value of Chinese exports contained direct and
indirect imports. Not surprisingly, such production is particularly
relevant to China's neighbours. Another World Bank study notes, for
example, that between 1985 and 2001, exports from other east Asian
emerging market economies to China grew from .9bn to .5bn. In 2001,
15 per cent of east Asia's exports to China consisted of parts of office
machines and telecommunications equipment and electronic microcircuits,
all of which were for assembly and re-export.***
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其他国家应对中国的冲击作何种反应呢？“心平气和”是最好的建议。
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How
should other countries respond to the Chinese shock? "Calmly" is
the best advice.
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经济方面的考虑是原因之一：受中国负面影响最大的国家对中国的崛起束手无策，而那些可影响中国的国家又是能从中国崛起中获益最多的。除非墨西哥能说服自己的贸易伙伴国增加针对中国的歧视性贸易壁垒，否则墨西哥将无法缓解中国带来的负面影响。但在对华贸易中，即使是净进口国也是受益者。保护主义的做法将会给自己带来损失。
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One reason is economic: the
most adversely affected countries can do little about China's rise, while
those that can do something also benefit most from it. Unless Mexico can
persuade its trading partners to increase their protectionist barriers
against China, on a discriminatory basis, it can do nothing to remedy the
averse impact. But net importers from China are gainers. Imposing
protection is to inflict losses upon themselves.
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但是，之所以必须采取“心平气和”的态度，更重要原因在于历史思考。如果中国得以兴旺发达，成为一个充满活力的廉价制成品出口国，那中国人将能实现繁荣富强的愿望。如果中国受阻于贸易保护主义壁垒，那么中国人也会为之感到沮丧而变得危险起来。
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But the bigger reason for calm
comes from history. If China is permitted to thrive as a dynamic exporter
of cheap manufactures, its people will obtain the prosperity they want. If
China is thwarted by protectionist barriers, its people will be
correspondingly frustrated and dangerous.
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包容一个全面醒来的中国将面临许多重大挑战，但世界能够也必须接受这样的挑战。
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The
challenges of accommodating a wide-awake China will be huge. But they can
- and must - be risen to.
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*埃琳娜•伊安乔威纳(Elena
Ianchovina)和威尔•马丁(Will Martin)，《中国加入WTO的经济影响》，世界银行，2002年12月11日。**威尔•马丁(Will
Martin)和弗拉德•马诺莱(Vlad Manole)，《中国变为世界工厂》，世界银行，2003年9月15日。***弗朗西斯•吴(Francis
Ng)和亚历山大•叶芝(Alexander Yeats)，《东亚主要贸易趋势》，世界银行政策研究工作论文
第3084号，2003年6月。见世界银行网址 www.worldbank.org
作者电子邮箱 martin.wolf@ft.com
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*
Elena Ianchovina and Will Martin, Economic Impacts of China's Accession to
the WTO, World Bank, December 11 2002; ** Will Martin and Vlad Manole,
China's Emergence as the Workshop of the World, World Bank, 15 September
2003; *** Francis Ng and Alexander Yeats, Major Trade Trends in
East Asia, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3084, June 2003. All
on www.worldbank.org. xref martin.wolf@ft.com
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译者/江洁
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