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成千上万的香港居民排队数小时认购一家小型中国汽车企业的新股，还有数以百万计的香港人将认购中国最大的人寿保险公司的上市股票。对于这些香港人而言，今年的圣诞节提早到来了。
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For
the thousands of Hong Kong residents who queued for hours to register for
new shares in a small Chinese carmaker and the millions set to apply for
the listing of China's largest life assurer, Christmas has come early.
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当地的散户投资者被交易首日可能赚取的优厚利润所吸引，对首次公开发行(IPO)的参与十分踊跃，引发人们担心会出现新的投机泡沫。
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Lured
by the prospect of a large profit on the first day of trading, the
territory's retail investors have rushed to buysintosinitial public
offerings, prompting fears of a new speculative bubble.
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长城汽车股份有限公司是一家规模并不大的民营汽车制造企业，其香港IPO的认购超额竟达到680倍以上，这是自二十世纪九十年代后期网络股泡沫以来未曾有过的水平。而预期将面对巨大散户需求的中国人寿保险股份有限公司，更是印制了220万份IPO认购申请表，相当于每三个香港居民一份。中国人寿IPO的融资总额为25亿至30亿美元，将成为今年全球最大规模的IPO。
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Demand
for shares in Great Wall Auto, the small car group, exceeded supply by
more than 680 times, a level not seen since the dot.com mania of the late
1990s. And China Life has printed 2.2m application forms - one for every
three Hong Kong residents - in expectation of huge retail demand for its
.5bn-bn IPO, the world's largest this year.
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高涨的认购超额水平，势必使股价在交易首日飙升，使上市公司能为“成功的IPO”而自吹自擂，也使排了数小时队的散户投资者得到回报。
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Such
levels of oversubscription ensure sharp rises on the first day of trading,
enabling companies to boast of a "successful IPO" and rewarding
investors for the long hours spent queuing.
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但在以胜利者自居的公司声明和“快速赢利”的背后，散户投资者以前曾为这种方式付出沉重代价。
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But
underneath the triumphalist statements and the quick profits lies a system
that has cost retail investors dear in the past.
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小型证券公司面向散户投资者轻易提供的“孖展贷款(margin
lending)”，对散户市场的需求起到了火上浇油的作用。投资者们确信IPO的股价会在交易的头几天飙升，让他们抛掉股票，并在归还贷款及利息之余，还赚到利润
—— 这种做法称为“新股套利(stagging)”。
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Most
of the retail demand is fuelled by easy access to credit through
"margin lending" provided by small brokers. Investors bet that a
sharp rise in an IPO's share price in the first days of trading will
enable them to sell the stock at a premium high enough to repay the loan
with interest, and still net a profit - a practice known as "stagging".
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批评人士指出，证券公司提供这些用股票来抵押的资金是有其动机的，因为它们既能通过IPO的股票交易赚取佣金，又能收取贷款利息。
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Critics
say brokers have an incentive to provide the funds, which are secured
against the shares, as they earn commissions on share trading in the IPOs
and receive interest on the loan.
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当一名《金融时报》记者走进位于香港市中心的一家小型券商
—— 宏高证券有限公司时，她被告知：只要她拿出10万港币，就可以借贷多达100万港币(合12.8万美元)来认购中国人寿的股票。
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When
a Financial Times reporter walkedsintosWocom Securities, a small firm in
central Hong Kong, she was told she could borrow as much as HKm
(US,000) to buy China Life shares by putting up just HK,000.
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该公司一名年轻的经纪商表示，只需提供身份和地址证明，就能得到这种高达90%的“孖展成数”
，它比美国允许的最高限额高出近五倍。“你不需要任何(其它)抵押或收入证明，”他说。
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The
young broker said this 90 per cent margin lending - nearly five times the
maximum allowed in the US - would be provided by simply showing a proof of
identification and address. "You don't need any [extra] collateral or
proof of salary," he said.
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在另一家小型券商 ——
辉立证券，《金融时报》被告知：贷款的年利率将为2.5%，但无需为此担心，因为中国人寿股价预料中的涨幅，将足够归还贷款和利息。
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At
Phillip Securities, another small brokerage, the FT was told the money
would be lent at an annual average rate of 2.5 per cent but there was no
need to worry because the likely rise in China Life's shares would be
enough to repay loan and interest.
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批评人士表示，新股套利这种做法对投资者是具有相当风险的，并有可能在远期损害上市公司的股价行情。正如1997/98年的金融危机所显示的，市场风云的突然变幻，可能会使举债过多的小股民倾家荡产。
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Critics
say stagging is risky for investors and could hurt the share prices of new
listed companies in the long term. As shown by the 1997/98 financial
crisis, sudden changes in the market could lead to ruin for small
investors who take on too much debt.
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香港联合交易所董事会成员，知名的公司治理活动家戴维#韦布(David
Webb)指出：“这是种不撑死就饿死的现象，是一个投机泡沫，(就象)其他时不时出现的IPO狂热，如2000年的互联网泡沫和1997年的红筹股(中国内地公司)泡沫。”
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"It's
a feast or famine effect," says David Webb, a director of the Hong
Kong Stock Exchange and a prominent corporate governance activist.
"This is a speculative bubble [like] other periodic manias for IPOs
such as the 2000 internet bubble and the 1997 Red Chips [mainland
Chinese-linked companies] bubble."
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在美国，投资者只能最多借贷50%的股票投资金额，而香港对券商提供的借贷额度没有限制，只是券商须在香港的金融监管机构
—— 香港证券及期货事务监察委员会(SFC)那里保持300万港币的流动资本。
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Unlike
the US,swheresinvestors can only borrow up to 50 per cent of the value of
the stock they want to buy, in Hong Kong there are no limits to the margin
offered by brokers. The main constraint is given by the requirement for
brokerage houses to maintain liquid capital of HKm with the Securities
and Futures Commission, the Hong Kong financial regulator.
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香港证券及期货事务监察委员会为这种做法辩护，称其使命并不包括监督投资者。“我们监管证券经纪公司，我们对个人投资者(在孖展投资时)投多少钱不予置评，”它表示。
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The
SFC defends this practice, saying it was not charged with overseeing
investors. "We regulate brokers, we don't really have much to say
about how much investors put in [when trading on margin]," it says.
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券商和投资者可能还不是由于信用泛滥，而导致的唯一潜在输家。分析师们警告说，新股套利的做法助长了短期内的股票抛售。
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Brokers
and investors may not be the only losers from the easy credit frenzy.
Analysts also warn stagging encourages short-term share sales.
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IPO之后，股价可能遭受抛售压力，尤其是在强劲的上市令机构投资者不愿买入股票的情况下。不过，只要新上市的股票在开始交易后节节上涨，这些忧虑都不致于影响香港的散户投资者们，他们还是会耐心地排队认购下一个热门IPO。
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Share
prices in the aftermath of an IPO can come under selling pressure,
especially if a strong debut deters institutional investors from buying
the shares. But, as long as offerings keep on rising on their debut, none
of this is likely to trouble the investors patiently queuing around the
block for the latest hot IPO.
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译者/和风
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