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2月15日COMEX评论:期铜大幅收跌3.3%,受基金平仓打击


http://finance.sina.com.cn 2006年02月16日 06:21 文华财经

  纽约2月15日消息,COMEX期铜周二收高,一些投资者回补空头部位并且进行3月/5月合约的跨期套利买盘。

  3月期铜升3.25美分或1.39%,至每磅2.2665美元,盘中区间在2.2150至2.2760。

  现货月2月铜收涨2.95美分,至2.2665美元,其他各月合约收升2.55至3.30美分不等。

  一场内交易商表示,今日有大量3月/5月跨期套利交易,收盘时价差扩大到约220点,只是暂时现象,3月合约的未平仓合约仍相当可观,基金仍有许多3月合约需要展期。

  截至2月13日,3月期铜的未平仓合约减少3,086手,至40,593,5月合约的未平仓合约增加3,689手,至34,254。

  COMEX期铜最终成交量预计为22,000手,周一为22,124。

  

   NEW YORK, Feb 15 (Reuters) - U.S. copper futures tumbled 3.3 percent or 7.55 cents as a fund-driven technical sell-off pressured the red metal to a three-week low and sparked predictions of further losses in the days ahead, analysts said.

   "Today's close was negative for sure. I think we are starting to see what could be the start of something more serious," said Dan Chesler, an independent technical analyst.

   Copper for March delivery settled down 7.55 cents at $2.1910 a lb on the New York Mercantile exchange's COMEX division after sinking earlier to a session low at $2.1750, its weakest level since Jan. 25.

   "We took out the Feb 10 low of $2.1855 (a lb) and then the low at $2.1850 on Feb. 13, so I would say the next level of support is $2.15, and if that doesn't hold, it looks to me like it's going down to about $2.08-$2.10," said Mark Nemenoff, a broker at Alaron Trading.

   Spot February copper slipped 7.25 cents, or 3.2 percent, at $2.1940 a lb, the contract's weakest close since Jan. 24.

   COMEX final copper volume was estimated at 25,000 lots against Tuesday's official count of 18,748 lots.

   A steady drop in open interest and steadily declining backwardation in the copper over the past two to three months gave reason to believe the market was nearing a top and that a reversal, or at least a temporary pause in the rally, was in store for prices, Chesler noted.

   "What that tells me is that you have people that are unwilling to open new positions. You have not had people that are willing to chase the market higher, even though prices have gone higher," Chesler said.

   As of Feb. 14, open interest in the copper market was 92,717 lots, up 225 lots.

   In economic news, output from U.S. factories, mines and utilities unexpectedly fell 0.2 percent in January, compared with economists' forecasts for a 0.3 percent increase, as unseasonably warm weather caused the largest monthly drop on record in utility output, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday.

   Within the utilities sector, electric utility output fell 9.1 percent in January after a 2.5 percent rise in December, while natural gas output fell 15.0 percent after rising 4.3 percent in December.

   These declines were partly offset by a 1.7 percent increase in mining in January, while manufacturing production advanced 0.7 percent.

   Additional price pressure was seen following the release of the latest Chinese trade figures, which showed little improvement in import growth for copper.

   China imported a total of 87,023 tonnes of refined and anode copper and copper alloy in January, down 32 percent from the same month a year ago, while exports, although still small, rose more than three times to 13,842 tonnes.[nSHA82748]


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