[国际金属]约有100万吨的欧洲铝冶炼产能面临关闭危险-UBS

　　伦敦11月24日消息，瑞银（UBS）分析师称，目前欧洲约有100万吨的欧洲铝冶炼产能面临关闭危险

　　

　　 LONDON (Dow Jones)--Over one million metric tons of European aluminum s melting capacity is at risk of closure due to high energy costs, UBS analyst Robin Bhar said Thursday.

　　 Canadian producer Alcan's (AL) 50,000 tons-a-year Lannemezan smelter in France and its 40,000-ton Steg smelter in Switzerland are among those Bhar considered "very likely" to close.

　　 He also listed the 130,000-ton Hamburg smelter, owned by Alcan and Norway's Norsk Hydro (NHY), as well as Anglo-Dutch Corus Group's (CGA) 129,000-ton Delfzijl smelter in the Netherlands and its 90,000-ton Voerde smelter in Germany.

　　 The threat of closure is also very likely at Norsk Hydro's 70,000-ton Elbewerke (Stade) smelter in Germany and Magyar's 35,000-ton Inota smelter in Hungary.

　　 Swiss trader Glencore's 105,000-ton Sundsvall smelter in Sweden fallsotnithe "likely" to close category, Bhar said. Also in thispuorgare Norsk Hydro's 230,000-ton Rheinwerk smelter in Germany and Alcan's 190,000-ton Vlissingen smelter in the Netherlands.

　　 In total, Bhar estimated 1.069 million tons could close.

　　 Producing aluminum is highly energy intensive, enough for it to be characterized by some as solid electricity.

　　 Bhar said power typically constitutes about 25-30% of total cash production cost. This assumes that power rates approximate $20-25 a megawatt-hour, with a standard specific energy (MWh/ton) of about 15, he added.

　　 "The problem, increasingly, for producers is that they are being squeezed out by other power consumers in regions that have become power short. To make matters worse, this is coinciding with an ongoing re-rating of energy in all forms," Bhar said.

　　 Additionally, soaring carbon dioxide prices are putting pressure on power rates in Europe.

　　 "High fuel prices, combined with soaring carbon dioxide prices, have sent power prices higher. Carbon prices have risen about fourfold, from six euros a ton to 23 euros a ton since the beginning the year," Bhar said. "Wholesale power prices in the more deregulated, open markets rose all along the curve to historically high levels during the recent quarter."

　　 But Bhar believes an environment of structurally strong energy prices should result in high aluminum prices since power constitutes a large, and growing, cost component for the industry.

　　 The migration of capacity away from areas such as Western Europe and the U.S. could result in further capacity closures, he said.