CBOT Soy Outlook:Flat To Down 2c; Following e-CBOT Theme
|http://finance.sina.com.cn 2005年11月14日 22:35 文华财经|
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade are expected to start Monday's session with a steady, easier feel, following the overnight theme amid ideas Friday's gains were a bit overdone.
Analysts call soybeans to open flat to 2 cents per bushel lower.
In overnight electronic trade, January soybeans were 1 1/2 cents lower at $6.00, December soymeal was $0.70 lower at $181.00 and December soyoil was 5 points lower at 22.69 cents per pound.
The overnight session should lead futures lower initially, but prices will probably edge higher at some point, as seasonal post harvest buying and underlying demand support the market, said Jack Scoville, analyst with the Price
The market is shifting to a demand market, with eyes on South American weather as the U.S. harvest is wrapped up. Reports of beneficial weekend rains in Argentina and Brazil and lingering concerns over bird flu in Asia are seen limiting upside potential, while a supportive monthly crush figure, talk of China securing U.S. supplies and carryover strength from Friday support prices, traders added.
Technical analyst Jim Wyckoff said Friday's price action was impressive to market bulls and strongly suggest that a harvest low is in place, after the market absorbed a bearish USDA report yet still moved higher last week. Market bulls would gain even better confidence with a close above the October high of $6.11, he added.
First resistance for January soybeans is seen at $6.03 - Friday's high - and then at $6.11. First support is seen at $6.00 and then at $5.95.
The National Oilseed Processors Association monthly crush for October was 150.859 million bushels, above the average trade estimate at 149 million. However, the figure was within the range of estimates that span from 147 million to 152.5 million bushels. Soyoil stocks were reported at 1.495 billion pounds, well above average trade estimate of 1.374 billion pounds.
Meanwhile, a total of 514 delivery notices were posted against the November soybean contract, with the house account at ADM Investor Services the primary issuer of 356 lots. The house account at Term Commodities stopped 269 lots and a customer account at RJ O'Brien stopped 245 lots. The last date assigned was November 7.
On tap for Monday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its weekly export inspections report at 10:00 a.m. CST (1600 GMT). Monday is also the last trading day for November soybean futures, the contract expires at 12:00 p.m. CST (1800 GMT).
In news, India is exporting around 20,000 metric tons of soymeal to Pakistan each month and business could easily be doubled with greater availability of rail wagons, industry officials said Saturday.
Egypt's Food Industries Holding Co., or FIHC, confirmed Monday it was tendering to buy 15,000 metric tons of soya bean oil on Nov. 16. FIHC is looking to buy 10,000 tons of soya bean oil, on a cost and freight basis, for delivery during the second half of December and 5,000 tons of soya bean oil in Egyptian pounds, a FIHC official told Dow Jones Newswires.
In overseas markets, China's Dalian Commodity Exchange soybean futures settled mostly higher Monday, encouraged by Friday's gains in Chicago Board of Trade soybeans. The benchmark May 2006 soybean contract rose CNY15 to settle at CNY2,750 a metric ton, after trading between CNY2,737 and CNY2,775/ton.
Crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended moderately lower Monday amid some late speculative selling. The benchmark January CPO contract ended at MYR1,429 a metric ton, down MYR7 after moving between MYR1,425 and MYR1,438.
Rotterdam soybeans and soymeal prices were higher, and European vegoils were mixed. -By Andrew Johnson Jr.; Dow Jones Newswires; 312-347-4604; email@example.com