国联安基金：2005年六月国际市场动态评述

　　美国 US

　　美国主要股票指针在5月份表现强劲。鉴于经济气氛改善，纳斯达克指数上升8%，为自2003年10月份以来最大的单月升幅。道琼斯工业平均指数报升3.2%，通用汽车跃升18%，为按百分比计算升幅最大的股份。亿万富翁Kirk Kerkorian 以8.68亿美元增持通用汽车股份的消息，抵销通用汽车及福特汽车的信贷评级遭降至低于投资级别的影响。在道琼斯工业平均 指数的大型成份股中，Alcoa的跌幅最大，下挫逾6%。反映大市表现的标准普尔500指数则上升3.6%。企业在2005年首季的盈利报告普遍较预期为佳，物料股的按年盈利增长最为显著。原油价格高企，有助刺激能源公司的盈利增长，而资本开支稳健，令工业及科技股的盈利大幅上升。

　　尽管上月的经济消息利好，但美国的经济增长放缓，而消费开支及企业盈利可能由目前的高位回落，我们认为息率将进一步调升。因此，我们对美国股票的短期前景保持审慎。若借贷过度带动通胀表现强劲，美股可望反复上扬，同时美元汇价亦可能显著下跌。

　　All key US equity indices rallied strongly in May. The Nasdaq index put in its best monthly performance since October 2003, rising 8% amid improving sentiment on the economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 3.2%,erehwGeneral Motors was the biggest percentage gainer, rising 18%. News that GM and Ford's debt had been cut to below investment grade status was overshadowed by a US $868 million bid for GM by billionaire Kirk Kerkorian. Of the bigger stocks in the Dow, Alcoa declined most, falling more than 6%. The broader S&P 500 Index put on 3.6%. First quarter 2005 earnings reports broadly exceeded expectations, with Materials stocks reporting the highest year-on-year profit gains. Energy company earnings were boosted by high crude oil prices, while solid trends in capital spending resulted in strong profit gains for Industrials and technology stocks.

　　Despite last month's good news, we believe interest rates will rise further as the US economy slows, and that consumer spending and corporate profits may fall from their current strong levels. We are therefore cautious about the shorter term prospects for US equities. An inflationary blowout, for example from excess credit, would see the US stock market rise in a volatile fashion, partnered by a sharp fall in the US dollar.

　　欧洲 Europe

　　尽管经济数据普遍表现疲弱，但欧洲股市在5月份自基数较低的水平上扬，表现较美股优秀。英国富时指数上升3.8%，DAX指数跃升7.1%，而法国CAC指数则上升5.6%。股市在4月份下跌后，市场主要集中于沽售价格吸引的股份以获利。虽然纳斯达克指数在近期表现强劲，但个别欧洲科技股如STMicroelectronics及Infineon持续令人失望，自年初分别下挫24%及19%。

　　整体而言，我们看好欧洲股市的前景，因为股市的估值仍然偏低，以及区内的企业透过重组提升盈利能力。个别公司可望扩展业务至东欧国家及提高派息率。然而，虽然欧洲企业的自由现金流量高，却继续缩减投资。这意味着投资增长偏低，无法抵销欧元区消费市道表现疲弱的影响。

　　European markets performed even better than those in the US over May, rallying from a lower base despite generally poor economic data. The UK FTSE Index gained 3.8%, the DAX jumped 7.1% and the French CAC Index rose 5.6%. A key theme was profit taking on attractively priced stocks after the declines of April. Despite the recent strong gains in the Nasdaq, selected European technology stocks such as STMicroelectronics and Infineon continue to disappoint,gnivahfallen 24% and 19%, respectively, since the start of this year.

　　Our view on European equities is generally positive, principally as valuations are still relatively attractive and regional companies are restructuring to boost profitability. Selected companies will be able to expandotniEastern Europe and/or lift dividend payout ratios. However, European companies have been cutting investment despite strong free cash flow. The low-level investment growth will struggle to offset the weak levels of consumption in much of Euroland.

　　亚洲 Asia

　　在亚太区股市中，香港股市在5月份报跌0.1%，在过去三个月共下跌2.1%，主要由于市场忧虑息率调升可能削弱需求，以及缺乏有关人民币升值的消息，令市场失望。韩国为区内表现出色的市场，南韩综合指数报升6.5%，重返3月份的水平。美元兑其它货币上升，加上电子产品股显著上扬，带动韩国股市录得增长。在5月底，台湾股市占摩根士丹利指数的比重将增加，消息刺激台湾股市上升3.3%。

　　市场表现波动，加上缺乏大型公司招股上市，令亚洲企业减少发行股份。尽管环球经济增长减慢及美元汇价表现强劲，对区内的物料及能源股造成影响，但有迹象显示美国的经济增长转强，因而支持亚洲出口股的表现，特别是科技股。

　　展望未来，美国的息率政策将会主导亚洲股市。不少投资者认为联储局以“缓慢平稳”的步伐加息将为区内市场带来利淡的影响。 我们对美国息率仍持乐观的态度，主要由于美国的核心通胀(不包括能源和食品价格)维持温和。人民币可能升值是主导亚洲股市的另一个主题。我们认为中国政府将会调升人民币币值，或至少与一篮子货币挂钩，而非单与美元挂钩。然而，我们预期中国不会在短期内改变目前的货币制度，并预计若人民币升值或挂钩的货币有所改变，区内其它货币亦面对升值或更自由浮动的压力。

　　Asia-Pacific share markets were highlighted by a decline in the Hong Kong equity market, which fell 0.1% in May, down 2.1% over three months. Key influences were concerns about higher interest rates dampening demand and disappointment regarding the lack of news about a Renminbi (Yuan) revaluation. Korea was a standout performer in the region, with the Kospi index rising 6.5% and returning to March levels. US dollar strength against most other currencies and an apparent improvement in the electronics sector were key drivers. Taiwan's share market rose 3.3% on news that its weighting in the MSCI indices was to be lifted at the end of May.

　　Market volatility and an absence of large listings have dampened share issuance in Asian share markets. Although regional materials and energy stocks have been hit by a slowing world economy and stronger US dollar, signs of stronger US growth have underpinned Asian exporters, particularly technology stocks.

　　Looking forward, a key theme for Asian markets is US interest rate policies. Many investors view the Federal Reserve's "measured" monetary policy as negative for regional markets. We remain optimistic on US interest rates, as we believe US core inflation (i.e. excluding energy and food costs) remains benign. The other key theme is Chinese revaluation. We think the Chinese authorities will revalue the Renminbi or at least peg it against a basket of currencies, not just against the US dollar. However, China's currency regime is not likely to be changed in the near term. A revaluation or re-peg of the Renminbi would put pressure on other regional currencies to also be revalued or to move more freely.

　　日本 Japan

　　日股(日经225指数)在5月份报升2.4%，主要由于有迹象显示美国的经济持续增长，以及企业增发股息，但并无触发通胀上升。企业消息方面，Cosmo Oil及Nissan Chemical Industries预测盈利录得增长，而日产汽车、丰田及佳能等出口商均录得最大的升幅，尽管钢材价格下跌，令中国入口显得便宜，导致日本钢材制造商的股价下挫。三菱东京金融集团的跌幅最大，主要由于该公司购入UFJ银行的坏账后遭调低盈利预测。

　　诚如主要经济数据所显示，日本正逐步由通缩转至温和通胀，故我们看好可望因房地产和原料价格上涨而受惠的公司。此外，我们看好在科技相关领域具主导地位的企业。长线来说，日本企业应可因中国经济不断增长及发展而显著受惠。

　　The Japanese equity market (Nikkei 225) closed up 2.4% for May. Key drivers were indications of sustained US economic growth and higher dividends without higher inflation. In company news, Cosmo Oil and Nissan Chemical Industries forecast higher profits, while Nissan Motor, Toyota and Canon made the largest gains of the exporters. This was despite Japanese steel makers crumbling under the weight of cheaper Chinese imports, as steel prices fell. Mitsubishi Tokyo Financialpuorgwas a key decliner after forecast earnings downgrades as it absorbs UFJ's bad loans.

　　As key economic data suggest, as the Japanese economy moves from deflation to mild inflation we will increasingly favour companies that can benefit from higher real estate prices and higher raw material prices. We also like companies dominant in particular technology-related areas. Longer term, we believe Japanese corporates should benefit greatly from China's strong ongoing growth and development.

　　债券 Bonds

　　环球债市在5月份大致表现强劲，孳息在月内下跌，但价格则上升。美国联储局把联邦基金利率调升0.25%至3.0%，尽管债市已反映有关行动。两年期债券孳息收报3.57%，而十年期国库券的孳息则攀升至月内的高位，主要由于4月份的就业数据较预期为佳，其后于5月份下跌至3.98%(自2月份以来首度下跌至4%以下)。国库券表现波动，主要由于经济数字好淡争持，如零售销售数据高于预期、工业生产数字表现疲弱，以及美国的核心消费物价指数较预期为低。在5月底，三十年期债券孳息收报4.31%。继评级机构将通用汽车及福特汽车的信贷评级降至低于投资级别后(标准普尔将通用汽车调低至BB／负面，并把福特汽车调低至BB+／负面)，美国信贷市场越趋回避风险。然而，有关消息公布后，投资级别企业债券的息差表现靠稳，因为有关行动已自3月以来广为债市所预期。鉴于市场忧虑上述行动可能对投资者造成影响，特别是对冲基金，故为美国国库券带来支持。

　　欧洲债市在5月份亦上扬。鉴于美国债券下跌及经济数据转弱，导致欧洲债券孳息普遍下调。英国十年期金边债券在月内收报4.31%，而德国十年期债券则报3.27%。德国方面， 5月份ZEW经济信心指针远低于过往的平均水平，而Ifo商业信心指数亦连续第四个月下跌。意大利及葡萄牙政府的言论暗示将会推行严厉的财政政策、维持当地需求在温和的水平，加上在月底法国公投否决《欧盟宪法》，进一步影响欧洲的经济，但支持欧洲债市的表现。

　　日本方面，国内生产总值及劳动力数据表现强劲，令日本十年期政府债券上升1个基点，收报1.25%。三年期债券孳息收报0.18%。然而，鉴于日本政府债券已有一段期间处于偏低的水平，故有关升幅显得温和。

　　汇市方面，由于零售销售数字高于预期及职位数据表现优秀，支持美元兑环球大部份主要货币表现强劲。货币交易商认为美国经济的局部疲软情况已结束，因而预期联储局将继续调高官方利率。美元汇价表现强劲，令以商品为基础的货币如澳元及南非兰特受压。法国公投否决《欧盟宪法》后，市场越趋忧虑欧元区一体化进程的前景，因而拖累欧元兑美元(资讯 论坛)汇价下滑至八个月的低位，在5月份收报1.2349。

　　展望未来，以美元结算的债券仍易受通胀上升及联邦利率进一步上调所影响。我们继续看好欧洲长期政府债券。在政府债券维持窄幅徘徊的情况下，我们仍持有应可因而受惠的与通胀联系债券及可赎回债券。

　　Global bond markets broadly strengthened in May, with yields ending lower and prices higher over the month. The US Federal Reserve Board hiked its federal funds rate 0.25% to 3.0%, although this move had been priced in by bond markets. Two-year bond yields closed at 3.57%, while 10-year Treasuries hit an intra-month high following stronger than anticipated April employment data, thereafter declining to close May at 3.98% (the first time they had dipped below 4% since February). The volatility in Treasuries partly reflected a mixed run of economic numbers, with stronger than expected retail sales data, weak industrial production figures and a lower than expected US core CPI outcome. 30-year bonds ended May at 4.31%. US credit markets remained risk-averse after it was announced that General Motors' and Ford's debt would be downgraded below investment grade status (S&P downgraded GM to BB/Negative and Ford to BB+/Negative). However, investment-grade corporate spreads performed soundly following the downgrade announcement, as speculation about the downgrade had been prevalent in the bond market since March. Concern about the fallout from the downgrade on market participants, notably hedge funds, provided support to US treasuries.

　　European bond markets also rallied in May, with yields generally lower across the curve on declining US bonds and weaker economic data. UK 10-year gilts closed the month at 4.31%, while German 10-year bonds ended at 3.27%. In Germany, the ZEW economic sentiment indicator for May was well below its historical average, while the Ifo business climate index declined for the fourth month in a row. Comments by the Italian and Portuguese governments implying they will be forced to run restrictive fiscal policies and keep domestic demand moderate, as well as rejection by French voters of the EU constitution late in the month, was further bad news for the European economy but further supported European bond markets.

　　In Japan, strong GDP and labour force data saw 10-year Japanese Government Bonds close 1 basis point higher at 1.25%. Three-year yields finished at 0.18%. However, the rally was muted given JGBs have been trading at very low levels for some time.

　　In currency markets, the US dollar strengthened against most major global currencies following stronger than expected retail sales figures and a robust payrolls result. Currency traders believed the US economy was past its soft patch and therefore that the Fed will continue to raise official rates. US dollar strength put pressure on commodity-based currencies such as the A$ and the Rand. The euro skidded to an eight-month low against the dollar, closing May at 1.2349 after French voters rejected the proposed European Union constitution and raised concerns about the future of the euro-zone integration process.

　　Looking ahead, US dollar-denominated bonds are likely to remain sensitive to higher inflation and/or further Fed rate rises. We continue to favour long-dated European government bonds and hold inflation-linked bonds and callable bonds, which should continue to benefit from range-bound yields on government bonds.

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