国联安基金：2005年四月国际市场动态综述

　　国际市场动态--2005年四月

　　Market Snapshot－April 2005

　　美国 US

　　在3月份，投资者忧虑国库券表现疲软及油价和其它商品价格持续反复上升。企业盈利普遍恶化的迹象不多。然而，投资者将注意力集中于汽车巨擘通用汽车在3月中发出的盈利预警。监管机构发表的调查报告证实，全球最大的保险公司美国国际集团的会计手法失当，亦令投资者的信心受损。

　　随着利率将进一步上升及经济增长可能放缓，我们对美国股票作为一项资产的前景未感乐观。经济增长正在放缓，甚至并无增长，与消费开支疲软及企业盈利自高位下滑的趋势一致。信贷过剩导致通胀升温，美国股市可能因而进一步上升，但表现反复。上述趋势可能引致美元急挫。

　　During March, investors were unsettled by the softness in the market for Treasuries and by the ongoing, if volatile, rise in the price of oil and other commodities. There was little evidence of a general deterioration in the environment for corporate earnings. Nevertheless, investors focused on the profit warning which was issued by auto giant General Motors in the middle of March. The announcement that an investigation had found evidence of accounting irregularities at American International Group, the world's largest insurer, also hurt investor confidence.

　　With interest rates certain to rise further, and economic growth likely to slow, we find it difficult be especially positive about the prospects for US equities as an asset class. Slowing, or indeed zero, economic growth is consistent with softness in consumer spending and a downturn in corporate profits from high levels. In the event of an inflationary blow-out - resulting from excess credit, - the US stockmarket would likely rise further, but in a volatile fashion. This scenario would likely be accompanied by sharp fall in the US Dollar.

　　欧洲 Europe

　　虽然主要英国股市指数轻微下滑，大部份欧洲大陆市场在3月份均告上升。与日本市场的情况一样，投资者的焦点从暗淡的经济数据，转移至出口销售增加及重组带来的企业盈利的上升潜力。月内共有两项主要意大利银行的收购建议。该两项建议均有待意大利央行通过。意大利银行业的发展较为零散。该行曾反对海外投资机构收购国内的大型银行。

　　估值仍然相对偏低。企业重组已对盈利能力构成正面影响。个别企业在东欧拥有扩展空间，并将提高派息率。主要的利淡因素为尽管欧洲企业赚取可观的自由流动现金，但仍持续削减投资。实质收入下跌令消费开支受到限制。欧元区大部份地区的增长放缓令人失望，主要由于欧洲大型企业的表现。

　　Although the major UK stockmarket indices slipped slightly, most markets in continental Europe made progress during March. As in Japan, investors are focusing less on gloomy economic statistics and more on the potential for corporate profits to rise through increased export sales and/or through restructuring. During the month, there were two take-over bids for major Italian banks. Both bids are subject to approval by Italy's central bank, which has previously opposed take-overs by foreign institutions of the major players in that country's fragmented banking industry.

　　Valuations are still comparatively low. Corporate restructuring is alreadygnivaha positive effect on profitability. Particular companies have scope to expand in Eastern Europe and/or to lift dividend payout ratios. The main negative is that European companies have been curtailing investment, in spite of high generation of free cash flow. This is at a time that consumption spending has been constrained by slippage in real incomes. The behaviour of the large European companies is a key reason for the disappointingly slow growth in much of Euroland.

　　亚洲 Asia

　　本港主要股市指数在3月份下滑约5%。投资者主要关注三个问题。其一为油价上升对环球经济的潜在影响。其二为美元利率持续上升，但本港并未自动追随美国加息的步伐。其三是鉴于其它地区的利率上升或趋升令资金流出本港，游资状况可能恶化。不少领先的本港企业录得出色的盈利业绩，并派发可观的股息或增加派息。然而，上述因素对股市的影响轻微，反映投资者已消化不少利好消息。

　　3月份的亚洲股市表现亦令人失望。虽然南韩的商业及消费信心有改善的迹象，其它地区的经济基本因素并无显著恶化。企业公布的盈利业绩可谓好淡参差，但整体而言令人满意。与本港的情况相若，区内的投资者忧虑美元利率上升可能导致大量资金外流：在流通性相对偏低的泰国及马来西亚股市，大型股的估价显著下挫。

　　月底，中国人民银行行长周小川确认人民币不会升值。鉴于中国的经常账盈余庞大，布鲁塞尔及华盛顿的官员均认为人民币应升值。然而，周小川表示中国在中期将稳步迈向较灵活的汇率体制。他称：“我们的任务...主要是改善...汇率机制，而并非只是调整汇率。”同时，中国当局维持防止经济过热的政策。例如，偏重农村而非城市的发展可能意味着资本产品的需求减少。然而，他特别指出利率在短期内不会飙升，因为存款利率上升会“违反政府致力增加消费(及削减投资)的目标。”

　　展望未来，美元利率持续上升，加上资金外流(不论是忧虑或实际)均可能令日本以外的亚太区股市持续蒙上阴影。鉴于2004年录得强劲的盈利，本港股市近期的调整属自然发展。虽然市场在短至中期可能进一步下跌，但我们认为合理的估值可提供支持。纵使有迹象显示南韩当地的经济改善，我们对出口的前景保持审慎，因为美元可能普遍疲弱，股市可望飙升。然而，近期的发展及数据与中国经济软着陆的表现一致，重点由投资转移至消费，对地区其它市场及环球经济亦属利好消息。

　　The major Hong Kong stockmarket indices slipped by around 5% during March. Investors were concerned about three issues. One was the potential impact on the global economy of higher prices for oil. The second was the continuing rise in US$ interest rates - even though local monetary conditions have meant that these have not automatically been matched in Hong Kong. The third was the potential for liquidity conditions to deteriorate - as higher (and/or increasing) interest rates elsewhere attracted capital away from Hong Kong. A large number of leading Hong Kong companies posted excellent profit results and/or announced generous or increased dividends. However, this had little impact on the stockmarket, which indicated that a lot of the good news had already been discounted by investors.

　　March was a disappointing month for most of the other Asian stockmarkets as well. This was in spite of signs of improving business and consumer confidence in South Korea, and no significant deterioration in economic fundamentals elsewhere. The corporate profit results that were announced could be described as being mixed, but were, overall, reasonably satisfactory. As was the case in Hong Kong, investors throughout the region were worried about the possibility of significant capital outflows in an environment of rising US$ interest rates: large cap stocks in the comparatively illiquid stockmarkets of Thailand and Malaysia were sold down sharply.

　　At the end of the month, Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the People's Bank of China, confirmed that the Renminbi would not be revalued. Because of China's substantial current account surplus, policy makers in Brussels and Washington have argued for such a move. However, Mr Zhou indicated that the country would move gradually towards a more flexible exchange rate regime over the medium term. He said that: "Our mission ... is mainly to improve the ... exchange rate information mechanism, rather than simply to adjust the exchange rate." Meanwhile, the Chinese authorities are maintaining policies to prevent the economy from overheating. For instance, it is likely that there will be more emphasis on rural - as opposed to urban - development, which could imply lower demand for capital goods. Nevertheless, Mr Zhou specifically ruled out sharp increases in interest rates in the near future, on the basis that higher deposit rates would "run counter to the government's effort to increase consumption (and reduce investment)."

　　Going forward, continuing rises in US$ interest rates, together with capital outflows (whether feared or actual) will likely continue to overshadow the stockmarkets of the Asia Pacific region outside Japan. We see the latest correction in Hong Kong's stockmarket as a natural development given its strong gains in 2004. Although that market could fall further in the short-to-medium term, we perceive that it is supported by reasonable valuations. In spite of the signs of improvement in South Korea's domestic economy, we remain cautious about the prospects for exports - given the likely general weakness of the US$ - and, therefore, the potential for strong gains in the stockmarket. However, the latest developments and data are consistent with a "soft landing" for China's economy and a shift in emphasis from investment to consumption. This is good news for the rest of the region and, indeed, for the global economy.

　　日本 Japan

　　面对反映经济疲弱的统计数字，日本股市的投资者持续乐观。基本上，投资者仍对企业盈利可持续改善抱有信心，不论是否由资产及商品价格上升或重组所带动。日本央行最近的每月报告，加上日本经济财政大臣竹中平藏就日本央行公布的商业调查发表的言论，均反映政府认为该国的经济持续复苏。贸易产业省预测工业生产在3月及4月将会上升。Jupiter Telecom(亦称J-Com)在日本最大型的上市活动中表现强劲。

　　总括而言，我们仍有信心日本经济逐渐由通缩转至温和通胀，并继续把焦点集中于可望因原料及房地产价格上涨而受惠的公司。此外，我们认为领导业内科技发展的个别企业，应可因中国经济发展等长期趋势而受惠。

　　Investors in Japan's stockmarket continued to be sanguine in the face of statistics that pointed to economic weakness. Essentially, they remained confident that corporate profits can continue to improve, whether as a result of higher prices for property and commodities or as a consequence of restructuring. The latest monthly report of the Bank of Japan, together with the comments from Economy Minister Heizo Takenaka in relation to the central bank's Tankan report on business confidence, indicated that, from the point of view of the government, Japan's recovery remains on track. For its part, the trade ministry forecast that industrial production would rise in March and April. Jupiter Telecom - sometimes known as J-Com - made a strong debut in Japan's largest Initial Public Offering.

　　On balance, we remain confident that Japan is making a gradual transition from deflation to mild inflation. We continue to focus on companies that can benefit from higher prices for raw materials and real estate. We also perceive that particular groups have technological leadership in their respective fields: this should ensure that they benefit from ongoing trends such as the development of China.

　　债券 Bonds

　　对美国国库券的投资者来说，3月份充满挑战。投资者对通胀压力升温的迹象作出反应，引致孳息上升及价格下跌。在3月初，官方统计显示2月份的非农业新增职位增加262,000个，较预期为高；工厂订单亦较1月份的预期强劲。月内，生产物价指数录得2.8%的按年升幅，为自1998年以来的最大升幅。联邦公开市场委员会一如所料将联邦基金利率调高0.25%至2.75%。

　　欧洲方面，政府债券投资者倾向将注意力集中于陆续公布的官方统计及调查。上述报告确认欧元区大部份地区的需求及投资情绪受压。欧元区及英国的孳息下跌。欧洲央行维持主要政策利率于2.00%不变。尽管英伦银行货币政策委员会两名委员提出收紧货币政策，委员会仍然将主要利率维持在4.75%不变。

　　日本政府债券的孳息下跌、价格上升，主要由于技术性因素。日本机构性投资者致力在截至3月31日的财政年度结束前改善盈利状况，因而购入日本政府债券。

　　鉴于美国近期调高利率，加上各种迹象显示美国经济强劲，相对于大部份其它主要货币，美元在3月份上升。

　　定息投资组合方面，我们持续认为美元长期债券的前景并不吸引。通胀上升及官方利率进一步上扬继续冲击债券价格。我们仍看好欧洲长期政府债券，并继续持有通胀挂钩债券及可赎回债券。在政府债券维持窄幅徘徊的情况下，有关债券应可受惠。

　　March was a challenging month for investors in US Treasuries. Yields rose and prices fell as investors responded to signs that inflationary pressures are mounting. In early March, official statistics revealed that non-farm payrolls grew by a greater-than-expected 262,000 in February and that factory orders had been stronger than anticipated in January. Later in the month, it emerged that the Producer Price Index had risen 2.8% year-on-year, or by the most since 1998. As had generally been expected, the Federal Open Markets Committee lifted the Federal Funds rate by 0.25% to 2.75%.

　　In Europe, on the other hand, investors in government bonds tended to focus on a continuing round of official statistics and surveys which confirmed that, in much of Euroland, demand and sentiment are depressed. Yields fell in Euroland and in the UK. The European Central Bank kept its key policy rate unchanged at 2.00%. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee also kept its key rate unchanged at 4.75%, even though two of the Committee's members argued for a tightening of monetary policy.

　　Japanese Government Bonds also fell in yield and rose in price. This was mainly due to technical factors. Japanese institutional investors who were seeking to improve the appearance of their balance sheets prior to the end of the financial year on 31 March were natural buyers of JGBs.

　　The latest increase in interest rates in the USA, together with the various signs of robustness in the US economy, contributed to the rise in the US Dollar relative to most other major currencies during March.

　　Within our fixed income portfolios, we continue to see the outlook for US$ longer-dated bonds as unexciting. Bond prices remain vulnerable to higher inflation and/or to further increases in official interest rates. We continue to favour longer-dated European government bonds. We also hold inflation-linked bonds and callable bonds which should benefit in an environmenterehwgovernment bonds remain range-bound.

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