|
□中信证券研究部 江赛春
上周A股市场在震荡中有所反弹，在第二批股权分置试点推出包含大盘蓝筹股的影响下，基金重仓股走势普遍复苏。从基金的操作来看，上周基金仓位变化不大，基金策略的重点转向对组合结构进行调整。
仓位测算结果显示，上周五88只开放式基金加权平均仓位为61.11%，与前周的61.06%相比微幅回升了0.05%。封闭式基金加权平均仓位为66.56%，比前周的66.98%微降0.42%。从具体基金的操作来看，多数基金仓位变动幅度不大，仓位略增和仓位略减的基金大概各占一半，但仓位变动的绝对幅度都较小。宝盈增长、天治财富增长、普天收益仓位增幅较为明显；在另一方面，宝康消费品、银河理财、中融行业减持较为明显。在仓位水平保持平稳的同时，基金的仓位结构调整迹象有所加强。
从上周的市场表现来看，基金重仓股总体走势有所复苏，超过70%的基金重仓股小幅上涨，下跌的重仓股则不足30%。股权分置改革试点的进一步推开更加明显地影响到基金重仓股的走势。第二批试点包括宝钢股份(资讯 行情 论坛)、长江电力(资讯 行情 论坛)等大盘蓝筹股给了市场较大的期待，由此也带动了重仓股整体回暖。但与此同时也有重仓股的走势出现了明显分化，类似中兴通讯(资讯 行情 论坛)这类带有H股的股票走势明显趋弱，中集集团(资讯 行情 论坛)等高价股受到了显著的减持压力。基金仓位的结构调整迹象表明，基金的策略可能也在发生相应的变化，试点正开始受到基金更多的关注，那些试点可能性较小的个股很可能遭到部分基金的减持。而导致基金仓位结构调整的另一层理由仍然是宏观和行业基本面的变化，经济增速放缓和企业盈利预期的下降。
目前基金重仓股走势趋稳在一定程度上是基于对第二批股权分置试点的观望和预期，同时，这也使基金重仓股未来的走势存在着较大的不确定性。其中下周将逐渐公布的长江电力、宝钢股份、上港集箱(资讯 行情 论坛)等基金重仓股的试点方案将对市场产生重大影响。若这部分指标股的方案成功推出则意味着市场可能进入大面积推广阶段，这对市场整体继续上涨将造成压力；而若方案低于预期，则投资者信心将遭遇重大打击。目前这批指标股的试点方案仍处于各方博弈之中，总体来看重仓股走势将面临进一步的分化，整体走强的难度很大。
|
基金名称
|
本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
|
本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
宝盈增长 |
20.18% |
23.18% |
3.00% |
2.74% |
仓位稳定 |
天治增长 |
35.31% |
38.31% |
3.00% |
2.64% |
普天收益 |
56.43% |
59.43% |
3.00% |
2.61% |
嘉实稳健 |
62.35% |
65.03% |
2.68% |
2.31% |
德盛稳健 |
51.36% |
53.63% |
2.27% |
1.87% |
天同180 |
70.13% |
72.13% |
2.00% |
1.67% |
博时价值 |
70.17% |
72.17% |
2.00% |
1.67% |
嘉实增长 |
66.76% |
68.76% |
2.00% |
1.65% |
金鹰优选 |
64.58% |
66.58% |
2.00% |
1.63% |
华富混合 |
35.49% |
37.49% |
2.00% |
1.63% |
景顺鼎益 |
37.64% |
39.64% |
2.00% |
1.63% |
大成价值 |
61.28% |
63.28% |
2.00% |
1.62% |
招商平衡 |
45.56% |
47.56% |
2.00% |
1.61% |
诺安平衡 |
60.18% |
61.84% |
1.66% |
1.28% |
华夏回报 |
61.30% |
62.96% |
1.66% |
1.28% |
大成精选 |
60.17% |
61.71% |
1.54% |
1.16% |
易方达平稳 |
66.47% |
67.57% |
1.10% |
0.74% |
景顺内需 |
66.79% |
67.87% |
1.08% |
0.73% |
南方积配 |
66.79% |
67.87% |
1.08% |
0.73% |
荷银精选 |
66.79% |
67.86% |
1.07% |
0.72% |
长城久泰 |
72.42% |
73.42% |
1.00% |
0.69% |
荷银混合 |
26.52% |
27.52% |
1.00% |
0.69% |
易基成长 |
72.48% |
73.48% |
1.00% |
0.68% |
天治品质 |
70.11% |
71.11% |
1.00% |
0.67% |
长信银利 |
66.87% |
67.87% |
1.00% |
0.65% |
富国价值 |
66.82% |
67.82% |
1.00% |
0.65% |
广发聚富 |
66.57% |
67.57% |
1.00% |
0.65% |
合丰周期 |
65.72% |
66.72% |
1.00% |
0.65% |
广发稳健 |
64.44% |
65.44% |
1.00% |
0.64% |
南方稳健 |
63.46% |
64.46% |
1.00% |
0.63% |
融通行业 |
62.12% |
63.12% |
1.00% |
0.63% |
银华优势 |
62.24% |
63.24% |
1.00% |
0.63% |
宝康配置 |
55.67% |
56.68% |
1.01% |
0.62% |
华夏大盘 |
61.08% |
62.08% |
1.00% |
0.62% |
国泰精选 |
60.03% |
61.03% |
1.00% |
0.62% |
富国天瑞 |
41.04% |
42.04% |
1.00% |
0.61% |
银河稳健 |
57.70% |
58.70% |
1.00% |
0.61% |
中银中国 |
42.19% |
43.19% |
1.00% |
0.61% |
银华88 |
55.32% |
56.32% |
1.00% |
0.61% |
海富收益 |
46.76% |
47.76% |
1.00% |
0.60% |
合丰稳定 |
62.47% |
63.25% |
0.78% |
0.41% |
广发小盘 |
68.95% |
69.54% |
0.59% |
0.25% |
合丰成长 |
60.07% |
60.68% |
0.61% |
0.23% |
盛利混合 |
19.74% |
20.17% |
0.43% |
0.18% |
德盛精选 |
37.36% |
37.65% |
0.29% |
-0.09% |
华安180 |
73.24% |
73.42% |
0.18% |
-0.13% |
东吴嘉禾 |
57.61% |
57.76% |
0.15% |
-0.24% |
易方达50 |
80.10% |
80.10% |
0.00% |
-0.25% |
嘉实成长 |
71.08% |
71.11% |
0.03% |
-0.30% |
景顺股票 |
66.53% |
66.53% |
0.00% |
-0.35% |
融通新蓝筹 |
66.74% |
66.74% |
0.00% |
-0.36% |
富国动态 |
56.57% |
56.57% |
0.00% |
-0.39% |
招商先锋 |
66.52% |
66.45% |
-0.07% |
-0.42% |
招商股票 |
63.54% |
63.41% |
-0.13% |
-0.49% |
宝利配置 |
56.57% |
56.46% |
-0.11% |
-0.50% |
海富通精选 |
61.09% |
60.93% |
-0.16% |
-0.53% |
博时裕富 |
80.14% |
79.81% |
-0.33% |
-0.58% |
长盛动态 |
61.09% |
60.87% |
-0.22% |
-0.59% |
金鹰精选 |
62.19% |
61.92% |
-0.27% |
-0.64% |
泰信策略 |
70.24% |
69.90% |
-0.34% |
-0.67% |
华夏成长 |
60.60% |
59.90% |
-0.70% |
-1.08% |
中国50 |
65.47% |
64.55% |
-0.92% |
-1.28% |
国联成长 |
72.46% |
71.46% |
-1.00% |
-1.32% |
中国优势 |
68.78% |
67.79% |
-0.99% |
-1.33% |
博时主题 |
59.89% |
58.94% |
-0.95% |
-1.33% |
融通100 |
67.90% |
66.90% |
-1.00% |
-1.34% |
华宝策略 |
67.74% |
66.74% |
-1.00% |
-1.35% |
华安创新 |
67.57% |
66.57% |
-1.00% |
-1.35% |
巨田基础 |
65.52% |
64.52% |
-1.00% |
-1.35% |
大成稳健 |
65.57% |
64.57% |
-1.00% |
-1.35% |
宝盈鸿利 |
65.57% |
64.57% |
-1.00% |
-1.35% |
长盛成长 |
65.67% |
64.67% |
-1.00% |
-1.36% |
申万精选 |
64.38% |
63.38% |
-1.00% |
-1.36% |
长城久恒 |
62.07% |
61.07% |
-1.00% |
-1.37% |
嘉实服务 |
63.40% |
62.40% |
-1.00% |
-1.37% |
国泰金鹰 |
61.25% |
60.25% |
-1.00% |
-1.38% |
融通成长 |
61.25% |
60.25% |
-1.00% |
-1.38% |
景顺平衡 |
46.78% |
45.78% |
-1.00% |
-1.40% |
鹏华行业 |
62.11% |
61.07% |
-1.04% |
-1.41% |
博时精选 |
65.57% |
64.46% |
-1.11% |
-1.47% |
东方龙 |
52.08% |
50.78% |
-1.30% |
-1.70% |
光大保德 |
77.83% |
76.28% |
-1.55% |
-1.82% |
国泰稳健 |
57.65% |
55.76% |
-1.89% |
-2.28% |
易方达策略 |
72.31% |
70.31% |
-2.00% |
-2.31% |
中融行业 |
65.45% |
63.45% |
-2.00% |
-2.36% |
银河理财 |
62.15% |
60.15% |
-2.00% |
-2.37% |
宝康消费 |
62.17% |
60.17% |
-2.00% |
-2.37% |
加权平均 |
61.06% |
61.11% |
0.05% |
-0.32% |
仓位稳定 |
| 资料来源：中信证券研究咨询部 江赛春 截至：2005-06-24 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
| 
