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中信证券研究部 江赛春
上周大盘继续大幅下挫，股指再探六年来的历史底部。中国联通(资讯 行情 论坛)等大盘蓝筹股的表现依旧疲弱，而以中集集团(资讯 行情 论坛)为代表的高价绩优板块出现大幅补跌则带来了一定的恐慌气氛。从上周基金的仓位变化来看，基金总体仓位水平略有下降，但并没有迹象显示基金在大规模地进行减持。虽然总体仓位水平变化并不显著，但上周
基金仓位调整有加剧的迹象，我们认为这种调整并非主要集中在高价绩优板块，而可能以大盘股为主。
基金仓位测算显示，上周五81只偏股型开放式基金的加权平均仓位为66.95%，比前周的67.54%略降了0.59%；54只封闭式基金的加权平均仓位为，比前周的69.81%略降0.04%。从具体基金的仓位变动来看，上周多数基金的仓位表现为小幅度下降。泰信策略、宝利配置、天治品质等新基金仓位仍有一定程度增加，与此同时不少老基金仓位小幅度下降。虽然仓位水平变化并不显著，但仓位测算结果显示上周基金仓位调整有加剧的迹象，基金的净值变化趋势与其重仓股走势出现了较为明显的背离，表明不少基金可能在对重仓股进行较大规模的调整。那么这种调整可能涉及哪些板块？
从上周的市场情况来看，以中集集团为首的高价绩优板块出现大幅补跌行情，海油工程(资讯 行情 论坛)、贵州茅台(资讯 行情 论坛)、盐湖钾肥(资讯 行情 论坛)等强势股均出现单日放量大跌，对市场人气带来较大打击。而在前期仓位调整过程中持仓进一步向这些板块集中的基金是否加入减持行列也引起诸多关注。从基金仓位变动情况来看，我们认为基金并没有集体减仓的行为，但单日的巨额成交量和基金加大仓位调整力度的迹象也表明个别基金在高位减持的可能性很大。我们认为这种减持出于基本面变化的因素较小，获利减持的可能性较大。在股价已达历史高位的情况下，一旦有机构减仓则必然以单日股价的大幅下跌来实现；短线资金获利减持也对股价构成压力。而由仓位测算结果显示的近两周基金仓位调整迹象加剧，我们猜测基金集中减仓的品种应集中在中国联通等业绩下滑的大盘股。而近期原材料价格持续上涨可能引发对行业基本面变化的担心，部分行业的赢利能力可能削弱，受宏观基本面影响产生不确定性的一些板块也可能成为调整重点。业绩稳定的板块和个股仍将是基金持仓较为稳定的部分。由此来看，目前市场的调整态势仍可能持续。
05年3月25日中信证券开放式基金仓位测算结果：
|
基金名称
|
本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
|
本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
泰信策略 |
70.12% |
66.23% |
3.90% |
4.33% |
仓位稳定 |
宝利配置 |
56.28% |
52.63% |
3.64% |
4.12% |
天治品质 |
44.32% |
41.15% |
3.17% |
3.64% |
长盛动态 |
57.65% |
54.87% |
2.78% |
3.26% |
华宝策略 |
74.93% |
72.12% |
2.81% |
3.20% |
华安创新 |
67.20% |
64.75% |
2.45% |
2.89% |
华夏大盘 |
70.03% |
67.60% |
2.43% |
2.86% |
富国价值 |
74.22% |
72.12% |
2.10% |
2.49% |
景顺平衡 |
56.50% |
54.74% |
1.76% |
2.24% |
诺安平衡 |
63.22% |
61.50% |
1.72% |
2.18% |
嘉实成长 |
68.76% |
67.24% |
1.52% |
1.95% |
融通行业 |
72.89% |
71.56% |
1.33% |
1.72% |
南方积配 |
72.35% |
71.13% |
1.22% |
1.61% |
长城久恒 |
71.34% |
70.14% |
1.21% |
1.61% |
嘉实稳健 |
66.87% |
65.76% |
1.11% |
1.55% |
博时主题 |
48.55% |
47.51% |
1.04% |
1.52% |
招商先锋 |
74.33% |
73.23% |
1.10% |
1.48% |
海富通精选 |
65.79% |
64.93% |
0.86% |
1.30% |
银华优势 |
72.11% |
71.34% |
0.77% |
1.17% |
易基成长 |
72.00% |
71.23% |
0.77% |
1.17% |
博时精选 |
72.64% |
71.98% |
0.66% |
1.05% |
宝康消费 |
75.35% |
74.69% |
0.66% |
1.03% |
天治增长 |
33.94% |
33.34% |
0.59% |
1.02% |
中融行业 |
72.16% |
71.57% |
0.59% |
0.99% |
申万精选 |
63.04% |
62.59% |
0.46% |
0.91% |
广发稳健 |
72.34% |
71.93% |
0.42% |
0.81% |
金鹰精选 |
70.22% |
69.86% |
0.36% |
0.77% |
嘉实增长 |
70.73% |
70.51% |
0.22% |
0.62% |
国泰精选 |
72.37% |
72.23% |
0.14% |
0.53% |
嘉实服务 |
70.22% |
70.13% |
0.09% |
0.50% |
国联成长 |
74.34% |
74.31% |
0.02% |
0.39% |
光大保德 |
80.00% |
80.00% |
0.00% |
0.31% |
易方达平稳 |
70.63% |
70.78% |
-0.15% |
0.25% |
银河理财 |
73.33% |
73.62% |
-0.29% |
0.09% |
博时裕富 |
93.22% |
93.45% |
-0.22% |
-0.10% |
长信银利 |
16.47% |
17.06% |
-0.59% |
-0.32% |
银华 88 |
62.36% |
63.25% |
-0.90% |
-0.45% |
华夏回报 |
70.53% |
71.48% |
-0.95% |
-0.55% |
南方稳健 |
72.22% |
73.23% |
-1.01% |
-0.62% |
景顺内需 |
76.44% |
77.58% |
-1.14% |
-0.80% |
融通成长 |
71.39% |
72.59% |
-1.20% |
-0.81% |
海富收益 |
52.32% |
53.64% |
-1.32% |
-0.84% |
东方龙 |
18.36% |
19.57% |
-1.22% |
-0.92% |
合丰周期 |
72.67% |
74.06% |
-1.39% |
-1.02% |
易方达 50 |
93.09% |
94.24% |
-1.15% |
-1.04% |
景顺股票 |
69.78% |
71.28% |
-1.51% |
-1.11% |
宝康配置 |
58.71% |
60.29% |
-1.58% |
-1.12% |
博时价值 |
78.55% |
80.00% |
-1.45% |
-1.13% |
德盛稳健 |
63.50% |
65.16% |
-1.65% |
-1.21% |
易方达策略 |
76.53% |
78.13% |
-1.59% |
-1.26% |
华夏成长 |
71.11% |
72.79% |
-1.68% |
-1.30% |
中国 50 |
67.02% |
68.74% |
-1.72% |
-1.30% |
融通新蓝筹 |
71.13% |
72.84% |
-1.71% |
-1.33% |
大成价值 |
68.57% |
70.32% |
-1.75% |
-1.35% |
宝盈鸿利 |
70.34% |
72.12% |
-1.78% |
-1.39% |
国泰金鹰 |
69.11% |
70.94% |
-1.83% |
-1.43% |
金鹰优选 |
76.54% |
78.34% |
-1.79% |
-1.46% |
盛利混合 |
9.88% |
11.75% |
-1.88% |
-1.68% |
银河稳健 |
71.70% |
73.80% |
-2.10% |
-1.72% |
融通 100 |
71.23% |
73.37% |
-2.13% |
-1.75% |
大成稳健 |
70.63% |
72.80% |
-2.17% |
-1.78% |
德盛精选 |
53.69% |
56.03% |
-2.34% |
-1.86% |
中银中国 |
12.10% |
14.24% |
-2.14% |
-1.90% |
中国优势 |
69.55% |
71.90% |
-2.35% |
-1.96% |
广发聚富 |
72.47% |
74.87% |
-2.41% |
-2.04% |
富国动态 |
68.77% |
71.21% |
-2.45% |
-2.05% |
长盛成长 |
71.43% |
73.93% |
-2.50% |
-2.12% |
华安 180 |
75.62% |
78.16% |
-2.54% |
-2.21% |
大成精选 |
59.77% |
62.55% |
-2.78% |
-2.33% |
合丰稳定 |
73.99% |
76.67% |
-2.68% |
-2.33% |
普天收益 |
67.56% |
70.38% |
-2.82% |
-2.41% |
荷银精选 |
73.49% |
76.44% |
-2.94% |
-2.59% |
招商平衡 |
54.35% |
57.61% |
-3.26% |
-2.79% |
招商股票 |
68.65% |
71.85% |
-3.19% |
-2.80% |
鹏华行业 |
68.33% |
71.76% |
-3.43% |
-3.04% |
天同 180 |
76.53% |
80.00% |
-3.47% |
-3.16% |
巨田基础 |
68.67% |
72.58% |
-3.91% |
-3.53% |
国泰稳健 |
59.80% |
63.84% |
-4.04% |
-3.59% |
长城久泰 |
84.66% |
88.87% |
-4.21% |
-4.02% |
合丰成长 |
72.69% |
77.49% |
-4.79% |
-4.45% |
加权平均 |
66.95% |
67.54% |
-0.59% |
-0.17% |
仓位稳定 |
| 资料来源：中信证券研究咨询部 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
05年3月25日中信证券封闭式基金仓位测算结果
|
基金名称
|
本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
|
本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
基金景博 |
69.79% |
67.90% |
1.89% |
2.31% |
仓位稳定 |
基金裕阳 |
70.69% |
68.80% |
1.89% |
2.31% |
基金天元 |
72.01% |
70.13% |
1.88% |
2.29% |
基金科讯 |
73.12% |
71.24% |
1.88% |
2.28% |
基金金元 |
72.02% |
70.17% |
1.85% |
2.25% |
基金同益 |
66.47% |
64.66% |
1.81% |
2.25% |
基金兴业 |
72.02% |
70.22% |
1.80% |
2.20% |
基金鸿飞 |
66.48% |
64.77% |
1.71% |
2.15% |
基金裕泽 |
67.64% |
66.45% |
1.20% |
1.63% |
基金安瑞 |
67.65% |
66.46% |
1.19% |
1.62% |
基金景业 |
69.87% |
68.72% |
1.15% |
1.57% |
基金同盛 |
66.55% |
65.45% |
1.09% |
1.53% |
基金天华 |
66.55% |
65.46% |
1.09% |
1.53% |
基金金鑫 |
69.88% |
68.77% |
1.11% |
1.53% |
基金景阳 |
73.21% |
72.11% |
1.10% |
1.49% |
基金融鑫 |
66.55% |
65.54% |
1.01% |
1.45% |
基金泰和 |
67.67% |
66.68% |
0.99% |
1.42% |
基金隆元 |
72.12% |
71.20% |
0.92% |
1.32% |
基金裕元 |
71.01% |
70.12% |
0.89% |
1.30% |
基金裕隆 |
73.23% |
72.33% |
0.91% |
1.29% |
基金科瑞 |
71.01% |
70.13% |
0.89% |
1.29% |
基金景福 |
65.75% |
65.47% |
0.29% |
0.72% |
基金银丰 |
73.32% |
73.21% |
0.11% |
0.49% |
基金丰和 |
70.01% |
70.07% |
-0.06% |
0.34% |
基金汉鼎 |
73.34% |
73.42% |
-0.08% |
0.30% |
基金兴和 |
69.70% |
70.22% |
-0.51% |
-0.11% |
基金普丰 |
67.87% |
68.71% |
-0.84% |
-0.42% |
基金普惠 |
67.88% |
68.77% |
-0.89% |
-0.47% |
基金兴安 |
72.32% |
73.21% |
-0.89% |
-0.51% |
基金通宝 |
70.10% |
71.02% |
-0.92% |
-0.52% |
基金裕华 |
72.32% |
73.22% |
-0.90% |
-0.52% |
基金金盛 |
70.11% |
71.07% |
-0.96% |
-0.56% |
基金安顺 |
67.89% |
68.88% |
-0.99% |
-0.57% |
基金开元 |
72.33% |
73.32% |
-0.99% |
-0.61% |
基金景宏 |
67.90% |
69.00% |
-1.10% |
-0.69% |
基金鸿阳 |
71.24% |
72.35% |
-1.12% |
-0.73% |
基金金泰 |
66.80% |
67.99% |
-1.19% |
-0.77% |
基金安信 |
64.58% |
65.79% |
-1.21% |
-0.77% |
基金普润 |
70.13% |
71.32% |
-1.19% |
-0.80% |
基金汉兴 |
68.70% |
70.11% |
-1.41% |
-1.00% |
基金久嘉 |
68.70% |
70.11% |
-1.41% |
-1.00% |
基金汉盛 |
68.70% |
70.17% |
-1.47% |
-1.06% |
基金兴科 |
72.42% |
74.20% |
-1.78% |
-1.41% |
基金同智 |
70.21% |
72.10% |
-1.89% |
-1.50% |
基金金鼎 |
72.43% |
74.32% |
-1.89% |
-1.52% |
基金通乾 |
65.78% |
67.77% |
-1.99% |
-1.57% |
基金安久 |
68.00% |
69.99% |
-1.99% |
-1.58% |
基金同德 |
70.22% |
72.23% |
-2.01% |
-1.62% |
基金汉博 |
66.90% |
68.99% |
-2.09% |
-1.68% |
基金普华 |
70.24% |
72.42% |
-2.18% |
-1.79% |
基金科汇 |
72.47% |
74.68% |
-2.21% |
-1.84% |
基金兴华 |
65.55% |
67.90% |
-2.35% |
-1.93% |
基金科翔 |
71.46% |
74.55% |
-3.10% |
-2.73% |
基金久富 |
70.35% |
73.45% |
-3.11% |
-2.73% |
加权平均 |
69.25% |
69.39% |
-0.14% |
0.27% |
仓位稳定 |
| 资料来源：中信证券研究咨询部 制表：新浪财经
辛淼 |
| 
