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中信证券研究咨询部 江赛春
上周市场走势可谓欲振乏力。在印花税减半等利好消息的刺激下，周一股指延续前周的涨势大幅跳空高开，但随后即展开逐波回调。政策效应的短期刺激难以持续。虽然市场呈现局部亮点，但仍然难掩总体颓势。从上周基金的操作来看，基金仓位变动略现出分化态势，观望态度仍然浓厚。
基金仓位测算显示，按照4季度公布的最新开放式基金份额计算，上周五73只开放式基金加权平均仓位为63.65%；可比的64只开放式基金加权平均仓位为64.58%，比前周的64.27%略增了0.31个百分点；封闭式基金方面，上周五加权平均仓位为67.47%，同样比前周的66.47%上升了1.00%。从具体基金的仓位变动来看，融通成长、天同180、宝盈鸿利等三只基金显示为增仓迹象，显示为减持迹象的仅有银华优势企业一只基金，此外多数基金显示为仓位稳定。此外，上周新增了广发稳健、华夏大盘等9只开放式基金的仓位测算，结果显示这部分新发基金的仓位大多在50～60%之间，建仓过程已进行过半。虽然仓位仍然较轻，但这部分基金规模普遍偏小，因此可用资金也较为有限。
从上周的市场情况来看，部分基金重仓股在前周五至上周一的市场大涨中表现强劲，而部分绩优龙头股陆续公布业绩修正公告也，一度引起市场对基金行情的期望。但在随后的回调中重仓股行情也没能体现出持续性，由基金推动又一轮行情的可能性较小。总体而言上周股指的小幅反弹利好刺激的作用更为明显，但这种利好效应很快于两天内消退。这也印证了市场的担心，即无实质性政策预期的情况下，市场可能再度陷于疲弱。而从基金的状况来看，开放式基金的仓位已经达到65%左右的较高水平，而封闭式基金更是持续保持在70%左右的高仓位，基金在此基础上进一步增持的空间并不很大。从历史上来看，基金集中建仓往往是大盘走强的前奏，但这一经验在目前的市场中已经很难得到延续。尤其是老基金的仓位较为沉重，在这种情况下，调整仍然将是基金的主旋律。
表一：开放式基金仓位测算结果
|
基金名称
|
本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
|
本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
融通成长 |
70.52% |
66.22% |
4.30% |
5.21% |
增持迹象 |
天同 180 |
76.88% |
72.55% |
4.33% |
5.14% |
宝盈鸿利 |
71.12% |
66.98% |
4.14% |
5.05% |
嘉实成长 |
70.55% |
66.57% |
3.98% |
4.88% |
仓位稳定 |
合丰稳定 |
70.11% |
66.15% |
3.96% |
4.87% |
华宝策略 |
66.85% |
63.06% |
3.79% |
4.74% |
招商先锋 |
67.58% |
64.05% |
3.53% |
4.47% |
普天收益 |
62.02% |
58.65% |
3.37% |
4.36% |
泰信策略 |
58.24% |
54.97% |
3.27% |
4.27% |
南方稳健 |
67.49% |
64.16% |
3.33% |
4.27% |
博时价值 |
77.98% |
74.58% |
3.40% |
4.18% |
鹏华行业 |
62.59% |
59.54% |
3.04% |
4.02% |
招商平衡 |
49.74% |
46.84% |
2.90% |
3.90% |
融通行业 |
64.95% |
62.16% |
2.79% |
3.75% |
中融行业 |
47.98% |
45.24% |
2.74% |
3.74% |
荷银精选 |
66.39% |
64.08% |
2.31% |
3.25% |
融通 100 |
76.55% |
74.13% |
2.43% |
3.21% |
银河稳健 |
71.93% |
69.67% |
2.26% |
3.12% |
景顺内需 |
66.86% |
64.67% |
2.19% |
3.12% |
申万精选 |
59.80% |
57.68% |
2.12% |
3.12% |
富国动态 |
60.58% |
58.50% |
2.08% |
3.07% |
华夏成长 |
76.90% |
74.77% |
2.13% |
2.90% |
海富通精选 |
67.28% |
65.42% |
1.86% |
2.78% |
博时裕富 |
92.13% |
89.78% |
2.36% |
2.73% |
易方达策略 |
75.08% |
73.19% |
1.88% |
2.68% |
国泰精选 |
64.10% |
62.57% |
1.53% |
2.49% |
华安 180 |
75.25% |
73.59% |
1.66% |
2.46% |
景顺股票 |
63.59% |
62.31% |
1.28% |
2.23% |
嘉实服务 |
63.81% |
62.60% |
1.21% |
2.16% |
金鹰精选 |
68.36% |
67.21% |
1.15% |
2.05% |
国泰稳健 |
60.72% |
59.72% |
1.00% |
1.97% |
中国 50 |
58.57% |
57.63% |
0.94% |
1.93% |
天治增长 |
41.68% |
40.73% |
0.95% |
1.92% |
金鹰优选 |
75.59% |
74.50% |
1.09% |
1.87% |
招商股票 |
66.03% |
65.12% |
0.91% |
1.83% |
易方达 50 |
94.74% |
93.25% |
1.49% |
1.75% |
华安创新 |
68.57% |
67.79% |
0.78% |
1.67% |
巨田基础 |
75.43% |
74.60% |
0.84% |
1.61% |
宝康配置 |
51.05% |
50.73% |
0.32% |
1.33% |
合丰周期 |
72.81% |
72.47% |
0.34% |
1.15% |
长城久泰 |
84.67% |
84.23% |
0.44% |
0.98% |
宝康消费 |
61.87% |
62.05% |
-0.18% |
0.78% |
合丰成长 |
68.27% |
68.60% |
-0.33% |
0.55% |
华夏回报 |
57.00% |
57.54% |
-0.54% |
0.45% |
景顺平衡 |
47.50% |
48.10% |
-0.60% |
0.41% |
嘉实增长 |
65.28% |
65.97% |
-0.69% |
0.22% |
国泰金鹰 |
59.65% |
60.48% |
-0.83% |
0.14% |
易方达平稳 |
60.31% |
61.17% |
-0.86% |
0.11% |
诺安平衡 |
64.16% |
65.20% |
-1.04% |
-0.12% |
德盛精选 |
56.11% |
57.41% |
-1.30% |
-0.31% |
大成价值 |
67.03% |
68.71% |
-1.68% |
-0.80% |
海富收益 |
44.14% |
46.01% |
-1.87% |
-0.87% |
嘉实稳健 |
53.28% |
55.34% |
-2.06% |
-1.06% |
博时精选 |
65.22% |
67.44% |
-2.22% |
-1.32% |
银河理财 |
58.68% |
61.23% |
-2.56% |
-1.59% |
大成稳健 |
68.18% |
70.95% |
-2.77% |
-1.93% |
广发聚富 |
65.74% |
68.66% |
-2.92% |
-2.04% |
长城久恒 |
61.59% |
64.65% |
-3.07% |
-2.14% |
德盛稳健 |
57.84% |
61.07% |
-3.23% |
-2.26% |
长盛成长 |
67.69% |
71.31% |
-3.63% |
-2.79% |
富国价值 |
59.28% |
63.10% |
-3.83% |
-2.88% |
融通新蓝筹 |
66.39% |
70.31% |
-3.92% |
-3.07% |
长盛动态 |
53.50% |
59.12% |
-5.62% |
-4.64% |
银华优势 |
63.48% |
69.39% |
-5.91% |
-5.04% |
减持迹象 |
广发稳健 |
55.48% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
－ |
华夏大盘 |
58.88% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
银华 88 |
35.04% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
宝利配置 |
39.38% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
光大保德 |
76.78% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
易基成长 |
56.17% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
中国优势 |
49.20% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
国联成长 |
62.98% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
南方积配 |
40.47% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
加权平均 |
63.65% |
64.27% |
-0.62% |
0.32% |
仓位稳定 |
* 上表数据均依据公开信息测算，参考误差比例在5%以内，仅供参考。
数据来源：中信证券 江赛春 截至：2005-01-28 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
表二：封闭式基金仓位测算结果
|
基金名称
|
本周持仓
比例估计
|
上周持仓
比例估计
|
本周持仓
比例变动
|
本周持仓
净变动
|
增持状态
|
基金同德 |
70.67% |
67.02% |
3.65% |
4.55% |
仓位稳定 |
基金兴业 |
70.17% |
66.56% |
3.61% |
4.52% |
基金兴安 |
67.42% |
64.21% |
3.21% |
4.15% |
基金兴和 |
69.65% |
66.54% |
3.11% |
4.02% |
基金景阳 |
64.02% |
61.00% |
3.02% |
3.99% |
基金科讯 |
68.47% |
65.45% |
3.02% |
3.94% |
基金裕元 |
69.55% |
66.55% |
2.99% |
3.90% |
基金普润 |
70.68% |
67.68% |
3.00% |
3.89% |
基金安久 |
67.46% |
64.56% |
2.89% |
3.82% |
基金科汇 |
70.68% |
67.87% |
2.81% |
3.70% |
基金汉鼎 |
67.48% |
64.78% |
2.70% |
3.63% |
基金同智 |
66.42% |
64.25% |
2.18% |
3.11% |
基金兴华 |
68.65% |
66.45% |
2.19% |
3.10% |
基金开元 |
70.65% |
68.45% |
2.19% |
3.07% |
基金鸿阳 |
70.65% |
68.47% |
2.18% |
3.06% |
基金久富 |
71.65% |
69.47% |
2.18% |
3.05% |
基金汉兴 |
66.43% |
64.34% |
2.09% |
3.03% |
基金景业 |
68.65% |
66.55% |
2.11% |
3.02% |
基金金泰 |
66.44% |
64.35% |
2.08% |
3.02% |
基金鸿飞 |
67.55% |
65.46% |
2.09% |
3.01% |
基金景福 |
67.55% |
65.46% |
2.08% |
3.00% |
基金金盛 |
68.66% |
66.58% |
2.08% |
2.99% |
基金科翔 |
70.66% |
68.57% |
2.09% |
2.97% |
基金金元 |
69.78% |
67.76% |
2.02% |
2.91% |
基金普华 |
68.68% |
66.77% |
1.91% |
2.82% |
基金科瑞 |
67.57% |
65.68% |
1.89% |
2.81% |
基金丰和 |
69.79% |
67.89% |
1.90% |
2.79% |
基金汉博 |
67.58% |
65.76% |
1.81% |
2.73% |
基金金鑫 |
68.57% |
66.76% |
1.81% |
2.71% |
基金普惠 |
65.37% |
63.66% |
1.71% |
2.65% |
基金泰和 |
69.94% |
68.35% |
1.58% |
2.46% |
基金汉盛 |
68.95% |
67.46% |
1.49% |
2.38% |
基金天元 |
69.95% |
68.54% |
1.41% |
2.29% |
基金裕阳 |
68.76% |
67.65% |
1.12% |
2.01% |
基金兴科 |
66.55% |
65.47% |
1.08% |
2.00% |
基金银丰 |
66.76% |
65.69% |
1.07% |
1.99% |
基金金鼎 |
68.57% |
67.57% |
1.00% |
1.89% |
基金裕华 |
71.00% |
70.01% |
0.99% |
1.85% |
基金普丰 |
67.68% |
66.77% |
0.91% |
1.82% |
基金景博 |
66.57% |
65.68% |
0.89% |
1.81% |
基金同益 |
63.24% |
62.42% |
0.82% |
1.77% |
基金安信 |
64.36% |
63.56% |
0.80% |
1.74% |
基金通乾 |
67.69% |
66.87% |
0.82% |
1.72% |
基金隆元 |
66.86% |
66.36% |
0.51% |
1.42% |
基金天华 |
65.65% |
66.55% |
-0.89% |
0.01% |
基金久嘉 |
67.46% |
68.46% |
-1.00% |
-0.12% |
基金裕隆 |
66.78% |
67.80% |
-1.02% |
-0.13% |
基金融鑫 |
62.68% |
64.47% |
-1.79% |
-0.86% |
基金景宏 |
67.97% |
69.71% |
-1.74% |
-0.88% |
基金通宝 |
69.56% |
71.66% |
-2.10% |
-1.27% |
基金安顺 |
63.26% |
65.68% |
-2.42% |
-1.50% |
基金安瑞 |
60.27% |
63.17% |
-2.90% |
-1.95% |
基金裕泽 |
64.79% |
67.89% |
-3.10% |
-2.21% |
基金同盛 |
62.66% |
66.56% |
-3.91% |
-3.00% |
加权平均 |
67.47% |
66.47% |
1.00% |
1.59% |
仓位稳定 |
* 封闭式基金由于数据较少可能出现较大的个别误差；加权平均仓位参考误差比例在5%以内。
数据来源：中信证券 江赛春 截至：2005-01-28 制表：新浪财经 辛淼 |
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