澳大利亚经济学家认为澳央行于年底之前再次加息

　　澳央行本周（5月12日当周）宣布削减税收，受此影响，现更多的澳大利亚经济学家预期年底之前澳央行将再次加息，其中有经济学家预期将加息0.25%至6%。

　　综合外电5月12日报道，继澳大利亚本周（5月12日当周）宣布削减约370亿澳元（280亿美元）的税收后，越来越多的澳大利亚经济学家预期澳大利亚央行（Reserve Bank of Australia)在年底之前将再次加息。

　　悉尼Ausbil Dexia Ltd.基金公司和摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）有关经济学家12日表示，预期澳大利亚央行9月份将把基准隔夜现金利率提高0.25%至6%。高盛（Goldman Sachs）在澳的分支JBWere预期澳央行将于第四季度加息。为阻止通货膨胀澳大利亚央于5月3日加息至5.75%。

　　将于7月1日生效的减税政策可能会增加澳大利亚国内的消费者支出、推动股价上扬以及引发通货膨胀。

　　摩根大通首席经济学家沃尔特斯（Stephen Walters）称，本周（5月12日当周）预算报告的有关预期暗示央行可能再次加息，预算报告中包括将削减个人所得税，虽然出于良好目的，但本周（5月12日当周）的财政支出显示有可能加速经济增长，以及增加通胀压力，而这两种结果正好是澳大利亚央行目前希望加以限制的。

　　More Australian Economists Say Key Rate Will Rise (Update1)

　　May 12 (Bloomberg) -- More economists say Australia's central

　　bank will raise interest rates a second time by the end of the year，after the government handed out nearly A$37 billion ($28 billion) oftax cuts this week.

　　Economists at Ausbil Dexia Ltd. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. today

　　said the central bank would raise the benchmark overnight cash ratetarget a quarter-point to 6 percent by September. Goldman Sachs JBWere expects an increase in the fourth quarter. The central bank

　　raised the rate to 5.75 percent last week to stem inflation.

　　The government's tax cuts， which take effect on July 1， may

　　spur consumer spending， stoking growth and inflation in the Asia-Pacific's fifth-largest economy. In a Bloomberg News survey before the budget was released on May 9， only three predicted a rate

　　increase by Dec. 31. With TD Securities Ltd. also changing its view this week， that has now risen to seven of 22.

　　``This week's budget giveaways -- which included substantial

　　reductions in personal income tax -- have tipped the scales in favorof another rate hike，'' Stephen Walters， chief economist at JPMorgan Chase in Sydney， said in a statement e-mailed to Bloomberg News.

　　``While well targeted， this week's fiscal largesse is likely tospeed up economic growth and add to inflation pressure at the very

　　time the Reserve Bank is trying to put a lid on both.''

　　Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Ian Macfarlane， 59， retires in September after 10 years as bank chief. His move last week took

　　borrowing costs to the highest in five years.

　　(侯向明 编译)