4月11日麦金农教授将在CCER做专题学术报告

　　CCER经济理论和政策研讨系列讲座

　　4月11日当代金融发展理论奠基人罗纳德·麦金农教授讲演

　　北京大学中国经济研究中心经济理论和政策系列讲座将邀请美国斯坦福大学教授、当代金融发展理论奠基人罗纳德·麦金农莅临中国经济研究中心做专题学术报告。具体安排如 下：

　　主题：东亚货币和中国汇率

　　时间：2005年4月11日(周一)下午1:30-3:30

　　地点：北京大学中国经济研究中心万众楼二楼

　　工作语言：英文(有中文翻译材料)

　　北京大学中国经济研究中心每年都举办很多讲座和研讨会，邀请著名学者、国际政要、成功企业家等来中心讲演和探讨。北京大学中国经济研究中心希望和大家一起来分享这些学术研究前沿、财经政策分析以及成功人士的人生历炼，诚邀感兴趣的各界人士参加(注：若无特殊情况，中国经济研究中心所举办的讲座和研讨会都是免费面向大家)。

　　如果您对中国经济研究中心所举办的一系列讲座和研讨会感兴趣，并希望得到这些讲座和研讨会的信息，您可以发邮件至[e-mail] ，邮件请注明您的姓名、单位、职务、邮箱地址，并以“加入CCER讲座邮件列表”为题。我们将把讲座和研讨会的信息直接发送到您的邮箱。感谢您的关注！

　　罗纳德·麦金农教授简介

　　1956年获埃尔伯塔大学文学士学位，1961年获明尼苏达大学博士学位。他长期执教于美国斯坦福大学经济系，自1984年至今一直担任该系W·D. 依贝尔(William D. Eberle)国际经济学教授。他长期为国际货币基金组织、世界银行、亚洲发展银行以及广大发展中国家政府提供货币政策和经济金融发展的专业咨询。

　　麦金农教授是世界上首先分析“金融压抑”对经济发展构成严重障碍的经济学家。他的第一本著作《经济发展中的货币和资本》成功地分析了金融压抑的危害，成为金融发展理论的奠基之作。他在《经济自由化的顺序——向市场经济转型中的金融控制》一书中给出了金融自由化的政策顺序，对发展中国家特别是包括中国在内的中央计划经济国家的转型产生了深远影响。

　　麦金农教授对于国际区域货币汇率安排也造诣颇深。他在1997年亚洲金融危机后，提出“东亚货币锚定美元”的主张，引起强烈反响。在《东亚汇率两难和世界美元本位》一书中，麦金农教授更是明确表明了美元作为东亚货币本位的主张以及该主张对于减小汇率波动、维持金融稳定的作用和意义。

　　CCER Seminar Series

　　The East Asian Dollar Standard and China’s Exchange Rate

　　Speaker: Ronald I. McKinnon

　　(William D. Eberle Professor of International Economics Stanford University)

　　Time:：April 11th, 2005 1:30p.m. - 3:30 p.m.

　　Venue: Wanzhonglou Auditorium, CCER

　　Working Language: English

　　Biography of Ronald I. McKinnon

　　Ronald I. McKinnon is an applied economist whose primary interests are international economics and economic development-with strong secondary interests in transitional economies and fiscal federalism. Understanding financial institutions in general, and monetary institutions in particular, is central to his teaching and research. His interests range from the proper regulation of banks and financial markets in poorer countries to the historical evolution of global and regional monetary systems. His books, numerous articles in professional journals, and op-eds in the financial press such as The Economist, The Financial Times, and The Wall Street Journal reflect this range of interests.

　　McKinnon was among the first (together with his Stanford colleague, Edward S. Shaw) to analyze "financial repression" as a substantial barrier to successful economic development. In the 1960s and 1970s, ongoing price inflation combined, with numerous government interventions to set interest rates and direct the flow of credit, had shrunk the deposit base for domestic bank lending throughout the developing world. His first book, Money and Capital in Economic Development (1973), analyzed why the prevailing economic doctrines of the time had become too tolerant of inflation and of state interventions in the credit mechanism. Without proper doctrinal constraints, politicians were only too happy direct the flow of credit to suit their own ends.

　　But identifying the deleterious effects of financial repression proved to be easier than escaping from it. Thus, in Thepuorgof Economic Liberalization: Financial Control in the Transition to a Market Economy (2nd edition, 1993), McKinnon outlined the appropriate sequencing of liberalizing government policies in domestic finance and foreign trade for securing open markets. He applied this analysis to developing countries and to the former communist states of Eastern Europe and East Asia-with a particular interest in why the Chinese seemed to be more successful in getting thepuorgof liberalization "right".

　　McKinnon's other major area of interest has been the study of international money and finance. He has focused on how the use of national currencies, only some of which have the important property of being convertible, allows international trade to be effectively monetized and multilateral rather bartered and bilateral. But financial volatility in this multi-currency world can be (and often is) unacceptably high. Unless the underlying "rules of the game" linking national currencies are properly understood and implemented, sharp swings in exchange rates, and currency runs followed by crashes, are all too commonplace.

　　These rules of the game, including the private institutions of international exchange as well as government policies, can only be properly understood in historical perspective-from the late 19th-century gold standard, the attempt to write down a new set in the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1945, through various phases of what quickly became the postwar dollar standard. In Money in International Exchange: The Convertible Currency System (1979), McKinnon analyzed why and how the dollar came to be used as an international vehicle and reserve currency among banks, and the primary currency of invoice in international commodity trade. In The Rules of the Game: International Money and Exchange Rates (1996), McKinnon focussed more on macroeconomics-and how the rules of the dollar standard could be (could have been) modified to make the world economy more stable in the postwar era.

　　Regional exchange rate arrangements among countries that are highly integrated, or highly competitive, in commodity trade is McKinnon's current research focus. After the euro's great success in providing a common currency in Europe, acute exchange rate and macroeconomic imbalances remain in other "natural" trading regions such as East Asia and Latin America. Because neither an Asian Latin American "euro" are politically feasible, exchange rate stability can only be secured by agreeing to modify the rules of the dollar standard for that particular region.

　　Here, McKinnon has focused more on East Asia and the great currency crisis of 1997-98 (which may not be over) affecting Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand on the one hand, and the foreign exchange origins of Japan's liquidity trap and more prolonged economic slump on the other. Together with Kenichi Ohno, McKinnon wrote Dollar and Yen: Resolving Economic Conflict between the United States and Japan (1997) and is currently working on a forthcoming volume, The East Asian Exchange Rate Dilemma and the World Dollar Standard. Establishing long-term dollar parities for exchange rates as a "nominal anchor" against fears of currency depreciation and inflation in the smaller East Asian debtor economies, and against fears of yen appreciation and ongoing deflation in Japan, the region's main creditor, are potentially of great mutual advantage.

　　McKinnon's research has been greatly helped by current and former students-both graduate and undergraduate-who have written Ph.D dissertations or senior undergraduate honors theses with him. McKinnon has presented this research in a wide variety conference formats the world over-and then used it as a basis for extensive consulting with central banks and monetary authorities in Asia, Latin America, North America, and Europe, as well as with international agencies such as the IMF, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and U.S. AID.

　　Most important is his wife, Margaret, who has edited everything he has written-including this Web page-while producing three fine children and, by extension, seven delightful grandchildren. Thus the McKinnon family collectively is above the break-even fertility rate of 2.1 and doing its best to help save Social Security.

　　www.stanford.edu/~mckinnon/